流動性短缺下的套現恐慌
楊惟婷
2home.co
一、從貨幣創造機制說起
1、由中央銀行控制的準備貨幣：
央行是國家的銀行，也是銀行中的銀行。
通常央行發行流通在市面上的通貨淨額和保有之銀行準備金，即所謂的準備貨幣。
通常，央行會透過訂定存款準備率、重貼現率及公開市場操作來引導利率走向，執行貨幣政策。
2、由商業銀行創造的存款貨幣：
存款貨幣係指個人或企業在銀行體系的支票存款、活期存款及活期儲蓄存款。存款貨幣主要由商業銀行所創造，又稱為銀行貨幣。
而對商業銀行而言，只有庫存現金，及在中央銀行的存款才能視為存款準備金。而當銀行保有的實際存款準備金超過法定存款準備金，其差額稱為超額準備。
3.銀行存款貨幣的創造過程
（1）貨幣基數：是創造存款貨幣的基礎，為銀行體系原始存款的來源。
（2）引申性存款：是銀行根據原始存款主動辦理放款、授信過程中再創造出來的存款。
（3）新增的貨幣供給量：包括原始存款及引申性存款。
（4）貨幣乘數：新增貨幣供給量是貨幣基數的倍數。
（5）簡單貨幣乘數即為法定準備率的倒數。
亦即 簡單貨幣乘數=1/法定準備率
（6）存款貨幣之創造數額＝貨幣基數*貨幣乘數
二、通貨緊縮的弔詭
自2008年金融風暴後，各國央行大行數量寬鬆、印鈔救市，致準備貨幣暴增，創造大量貨幣湧入市場，致市場一直有激化通膨之疑慮。
惟2008年金融風暴後，同樣也重創商業銀行創造存款貨幣能力，加上實體經濟創新不足，無法帶動實體投資而抵銷數量寬鬆的乘數效果，因而迄今尚未激化通膨。
但是創新不足，無法吸引資金流入實體投資，致游資金大量流入債市、股市、房市等金融性商品逐利。因此，數量寬鬆只是一直在孵化另一個泡沬、伺機而動。
三、美國消費者寅吃卯糧到了付帳時刻
美國經濟成長的主要動能一直是消費者支出在推動，由於美國消費者已經習慣借錢消費、寅吃卯糧墊高債務，此消費者債務數字包括信用卡債務、學生貸款、汽車貸款和抵押債務……..等。
依據美國聯準會發布數據，2019年11月消費者債務總額增長並創下新的紀錄，不過增長速度有所減緩，信用卡債務在過去4個月中，有3個月略有收縮。
《seekingalpha》文章作者 Steven Hansen 指出，與政府可以隨時印鈔不同，消費者個人信貸是有上限的，在過去的6個月中，信用卡借款顯著下降，對經濟來說不見得是好事。)
Hansen 表示，無論聯準會升息、降息，消費者支出和消費者債務通常傾向於同一方向發展，換句話說，隨著借款減少可能表明消費者正在關閉錢包。
在這樣的背景下，信用卡債務的降低未必是好事，更可能是他們快用光信用卡餘額的跡象，這對未來美國經濟的發展不見得是好兆頭。
在美國聯準會持續十多年QE之下，美國消費者已完全被「槓桿化」了。他們被鼓勵債務額創高紀錄，之所以還能一直花錢，原因在於聯準會將利率保持在足夠低的水準。因此即使缺少足夠的儲蓄支持，信貸仍在繼續流動。
但是亢龍有悔，一旦信用卡撐起的紙牌屋倒塌，美國消費者將正在其中，將被砸個正著。所以美國經濟並不像表面看起來那麼好，美國消費者似乎正在接近債務的頂點盡頭，消費力再難以支撐美國經濟的成長。
四、ETF水能載舟、亦能覆舟
由於投資人並沒有買進整體市場所有標的(所有股票或債券)的能力，因為這需要大量的資金，所以若想用少量資金一次投資到許多標的上，只有基金這一個選擇。
主動型基金是透過選擇標的物(選股)、選擇時機點(擇時)的方式，試圖做出預測，來取得更好的報酬，當然這不容易。然而許多研究數據證實，有很多的主動型基金表現很差、無法戰勝大盤。
一直到1970年被動投資(英文Passive Investing) 指數型基金出現，它是運用程式交易，過程不需要人為研究、不需要人為分析預測，直接追蹤指數，一次持有目標市場上的所有投資標的，得到跟目標市場長期經濟成長一樣的成果，所以也被稱為懶人投資法。
台灣常見的指數有：加權指數、電子指數、金融指數，
國外常聽見的有：S&P500指數、那斯達克指數等等。
到了1993年時，指數型基金的雙胞胎兄弟「ETF(交易所買賣指數基金)」也出現，
讓人們有了投資工具可以根據指數的權重比例，用很低的管理費成本(約0.1%)，一次投資全市場的標的。
這種用指數型基金或ETF一次投資全市場，並且不考慮進出策略，僅做長期買進持有(Buy & Hold)或定期定額，或不定期不定額的投資方法(分很多次買進持有)，
可取得跟整體市場相同的報酬率(也可以理解為長期經濟成長的報酬)，這種投資方法就被稱為「被動投資」。
選擇基金的關鍵在於分散投資。而「被動投資」可簡單地取得跟整體市場相同的報酬率。但其運用程式交易特性，易漲時追漲、跌時追殺。換句話說，這屬性在多頭容易獲利，在空頭若不懂停損，容易粉身碎骨。
值得一提的是，美股近期以來劇烈波動，即是美股ETF助漲、助跌的緣故。
這次，總算讓大家長見識了!
五、過度槓桿操作下的去槓桿恐慌
近期美國聯準會激進的貨幣政策，反而對金融市場形成下跌壓力，金融市場頻頻熔斷，持續震盪劇烈。
CMC Markets 首席策略師 Michael McCarthy 表示，全球金融市場多頭人氣正在潰散，股市持續暴跌，顯示市場預期疫情衝擊經濟持續時間恐將延長，更多的投資人正急於套現，而引爆套現潮。
瑞銀策略師 Dean Turner 和 Thomas Flury 指出，在近期金融市場持續動盪下，企業和投資人需要美元來結算交易，更加推升美元的需求。這期間大家爭搶美元資產，尋求避風港，美元指數也衝破102，創下2017年四月以來新高。
過去，外匯市場出現的「閃崩」，大多數發生在流動性不足的時候或假日期間，但這次出現了大規模的美元資金短缺是前所未見的，是金融市場極度混亂造成的現象。
因為這次美股在一個月內遭遇一連串殺盤、重挫萬點、頻頻破底後，迎來融資追繳、斷頭恐慌，不給市場有喘息的空間。
加上ETF程式交易的循環賣壓一波一波襲來，形成惡性循環的恐懼總合。
市場去槓桿，除了套現，還是套現，只要能夠變現的就瘋狂賣出。
六、美元亂世造英雄
此次美國聯準會意外連番大幅降息、並重啟金融風暴時期對短期公司債的購買( QE )後，美國財政部也推出約 1 兆美元的經濟刺激計畫，此舉無法減緩疫情衝擊，卻讓投資者加劇市場的恐慌情緒，紛紛爭相追逐美債避險，也使得 10 年期美債收益率首次跌破 1%，形成利率倒掛。
隨著新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情快速蔓延，引爆市場對疫情衝擊經濟的恐慌。
市場愈動盪之時，在全球具流動性佳和具儲備貨幣地位的美元，成為投資人急於套現、尋求避險標的；而企業界在市場動盪時，也秉持現金為王原則，尤其美國以外市場對美元融資的需求壓力山大，推升美元指數衝高到102附近高檔震盪 。
由於全球最強經濟體—美國的肺炎疫情失控，除了導致全球各大風險性資產出現嚴重賣壓、市場急欲追求流動性高的資產 (如: 現金) 外，部分槓桿投資人需應付風險性資產大幅下跌後的融資追繳令 (Margin Call)，想要獲利了結之前價格大漲的美債資產，使美債殖利率出現大幅波動的情形。
黃金是受益於美元下跌的一項避險資產，原本近期價格突破了 1,700 美元。
但當這次金融市場瞬間湧現融資追繳、套現避險壓力，此時美元避險功能更勝黃金，投資者爭相變現，連避險資產黃金也慘遭錯殺。
這即是，此波在市場大幅撤出風險性資產的同時，為何三大避險商品—-美債、黃金、日圓卻不漲反跌！
不過，隨着美國聯準會和其他央行通過互換等工具，在全球範圍內提供美元流動性，預期這些追買美元的恐慌買盤將得紓解，可預見未來，其它主要避險貨幣及商品一旦展開反彈，漲勢將和先前的跌勢一樣劇烈。總之，金融市場的不變法則即，漲多是最大利空、跌深是最大利多，亢龍有悔、否極泰來。
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