流動性短缺下的套現恐慌

流動性短缺下的套現恐慌

楊惟婷

2home.co

 

一、從貨幣創造機制說起

 

1、由中央銀行控制的準備貨幣:

央行是國家的銀行,也是銀行中的銀行。

通常央行發行流通在市面上的通貨淨額和保有之銀行準備金,即所謂的準備貨幣。

通常,央行會透過訂定存款準備率、重貼現率及公開市場操作來引導利率走向,執行貨幣政策。

 

2、由商業銀行創造的存款貨幣:

存款貨幣係指個人或企業在銀行體系的支票存款、活期存款及活期儲蓄存款。存款貨幣主要由商業銀行所創造,又稱為銀行貨幣。

而對商業銀行而言,只有庫存現金,及在中央銀行的存款才能視為存款準備金。而當銀行保有的實際存款準備金超過法定存款準備金,其差額稱為超額準備。

 

3.銀行存款貨幣的創造過程

 

(1)貨幣基數:是創造存款貨幣的基礎,為銀行體系原始存款的來源。

(2)引申性存款:是銀行根據原始存款主動辦理放款、授信過程中再創造出來的存款。

(3)新增的貨幣供給量:包括原始存款及引申性存款。

(4)貨幣乘數:新增貨幣供給量是貨幣基數的倍數。

(5)簡單貨幣乘數即為法定準備率的倒數。

亦即   簡單貨幣乘數=1/法定準備率

(6)存款貨幣之創造數額=貨幣基數*貨幣乘數

 

二、通貨緊縮的弔詭

 

自2008年金融風暴後,各國央行大行數量寬鬆、印鈔救市,致準備貨幣暴增,創造大量貨幣湧入市場,致市場一直有激化通膨之疑慮。

 

惟2008年金融風暴後,同樣也重創商業銀行創造存款貨幣能力,加上實體經濟創新不足,無法帶動實體投資而抵銷數量寬鬆的乘數效果,因而迄今尚未激化通膨。

 

但是創新不足,無法吸引資金流入實體投資,致游資金大量流入債市、股市、房市等金融性商品逐利。因此,數量寬鬆只是一直在孵化另一個泡沬、伺機而動。

 

三、美國消費者寅吃卯糧到了付帳時刻

美國經濟成長的主要動能一直是消費者支出在推動,由於美國消費者已經習慣借錢消費、寅吃卯糧墊高債務,此消費者債務數字包括信用卡債務、學生貸款、汽車貸款和抵押債務……..等。
依據美國聯準會發布數據,2019年11月消費者債務總額增長並創下新的紀錄,不過增長速度有所減緩,信用卡債務在過去4個月中,有3個月略有收縮。

《seekingalpha》文章作者 Steven Hansen 指出,與政府可以隨時印鈔不同,消費者個人信貸是有上限的,在過去的6個月中,信用卡借款顯著下降,對經濟來說不見得是好事。)

Hansen 表示,無論聯準會升息、降息,消費者支出和消費者債務通常傾向於同一方向發展,換句話說,隨著借款減少可能表明消費者正在關閉錢包。

在這樣的背景下,信用卡債務的降低未必是好事,更可能是他們快用光信用卡餘額的跡象,這對未來美國經濟的發展不見得是好兆頭。

 

在美國聯準會持續十多年QE之下,美國消費者已完全被「槓桿化」了。他們被鼓勵債務額創高紀錄,之所以還能一直花錢,原因在於聯準會將利率保持在足夠低的水準。因此即使缺少足夠的儲蓄支持,信貸仍在繼續流動。

 

但是亢龍有悔,一旦信用卡撐起的紙牌屋倒塌,美國消費者將正在其中,將被砸個正著。所以美國經濟並不像表面看起來那麼好,美國消費者似乎正在接近債務的頂點盡頭,消費力再難以支撐美國經濟的成長。

 

四、ETF水能載舟、亦能覆舟

 

由於投資人並沒有買進整體市場所有標的(所有股票或債券)的能力,因為這需要大量的資金,所以若想用少量資金一次投資到許多標的上,只有基金這一個選擇。

 

主動型基金是透過選擇標的物(選股)、選擇時機點(擇時)的方式,試圖做出預測,來取得更好的報酬,當然這不容易。然而許多研究數據證實,有很多的主動型基金表現很差、無法戰勝大盤。

 

一直到1970年被動投資(英文Passive Investing) 指數型基金出現,它是運用程式交易,過程不需要人為研究、不需要人為分析預測,直接追蹤指數,一次持有目標市場上的所有投資標的,得到跟目標市場長期經濟成長一樣的成果,所以也被稱為懶人投資法。

台灣常見的指數有:加權指數、電子指數、金融指數,

國外常聽見的有:S&P500指數、那斯達克指數等等。

 

到了1993年時,指數型基金的雙胞胎兄弟「ETF(交易所買賣指數基金)」也出現,

讓人們有了投資工具可以根據指數的權重比例,用很低的管理費成本(約0.1%),一次投資全市場的標的。

 

這種用指數型基金或ETF一次投資全市場,並且不考慮進出策略,僅做長期買進持有(Buy & Hold)或定期定額,或不定期不定額的投資方法(分很多次買進持有),

可取得跟整體市場相同的報酬率(也可以理解為長期經濟成長的報酬),這種投資方法就被稱為「被動投資」。

 

選擇基金的關鍵在於分散投資。而「被動投資」可簡單地取得跟整體市場相同的報酬率。但其運用程式交易特性,易漲時追漲、跌時追殺。換句話說,這屬性在多頭容易獲利,在空頭若不懂停損,容易粉身碎骨。

 

值得一提的是,美股近期以來劇烈波動,即是美股ETF助漲、助跌的緣故。

這次,總算讓大家長見識了!

 

五、過度槓桿操作下的去槓桿恐慌

 

近期美國聯準會激進的貨幣政策,反而對金融市場形成下跌壓力,金融市場頻頻熔斷,持續震盪劇烈。

 

CMC Markets 首席策略師 Michael McCarthy 表示,全球金融市場多頭人氣正在潰散,股市持續暴跌,顯示市場預期疫情衝擊經濟持續時間恐將延長,更多的投資人正急於套現,而引爆套現潮。

 

瑞銀策略師 Dean Turner 和 Thomas Flury 指出,在近期金融市場持續動盪下,企業和投資人需要美元來結算交易,更加推升美元的需求。這期間大家爭搶美元資產,尋求避風港,美元指數也衝破102,創下2017年四月以來新高。

 

過去,外匯市場出現的「閃崩」,大多數發生在流動性不足的時候或假日期間,但這次出現了大規模的美元資金短缺是前所未見的,是金融市場極度混亂造成的現象。

 

因為這次美股在一個月內遭遇一連串殺盤、重挫萬點、頻頻破底後,迎來融資追繳、斷頭恐慌,不給市場有喘息的空間。

加上ETF程式交易的循環賣壓一波一波襲來,形成惡性循環的恐懼總合。

市場去槓桿,除了套現,還是套現,只要能夠變現的就瘋狂賣出。

 

六、美元亂世造英雄

 

此次美國聯準會意外連番大幅降息、並重啟金融風暴時期對短期公司債的購買( QE )後,美國財政部也推出約 1 兆美元的經濟刺激計畫,此舉無法減緩疫情衝擊,卻讓投資者加劇市場的恐慌情緒,紛紛爭相追逐美債避險,也使得 10 年期美債收益率首次跌破 1%,形成利率倒掛。

 

隨著新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情快速蔓延,引爆市場對疫情衝擊經濟的恐慌。
市場愈動盪之時,在全球具流動性佳和具儲備貨幣地位的美元,成為投資人急於套現、尋求避險標的;而企業界在市場動盪時,也秉持現金為王原則,尤其美國以外市場對美元融資的需求壓力山大,推升美元指數衝高到102附近高檔震盪 。

 

由於全球最強經濟體—美國的肺炎疫情失控,除了導致全球各大風險性資產出現嚴重賣壓、市場急欲追求流動性高的資產 (如: 現金) 外,部分槓桿投資人需應付風險性資產大幅下跌後的融資追繳令 (Margin Call),想要獲利了結之前價格大漲的美債資產,使美債殖利率出現大幅波動的情形。

 

黃金是受益於美元下跌的一項避險資產,原本近期價格突破了 1,700 美元。

但當這次金融市場瞬間湧現融資追繳、套現避險壓力,此時美元避險功能更勝黃金,投資者爭相變現,連避險資產黃金也慘遭錯殺。

 

這即是,此波在市場大幅撤出風險性資產的同時,為何三大避險商品—-美債、黃金、日圓卻不漲反跌!

 

不過,隨着美國聯準會和其他央行通過互換等工具,在全球範圍內提供美元流動性,預期這些追買美元的恐慌買盤將得紓解,可預見未來,其它主要避險貨幣及商品一旦展開反彈,漲勢將和先前的跌勢一樣劇烈。總之,金融市場的不變法則即,漲多是最大利空、跌深是最大利多,亢龍有悔、否極泰來。

 

發佈留言

發佈留言必須填寫的電子郵件地址不會公開。

留言列表(635条)

  • film porno
    film porno 2024 年 4 月 15 日 下午 12:51

    wonderful points altogether, you just received a new reader. What would you suggest in regards to your publish that you made some days in the past? Any sure?

  • İyi Bahis Bonus
    İyi Bahis Bonus 2024 年 4 月 15 日 上午 8:46

    Excellent post. I used to be checking constantly this weblog and I am inspired! Very helpful information specially the closing phase 🙂 I maintain such information a lot. I used to be looking for this particular info for a long time. Thank you and good luck.

  • Twitter video downloader
    Twitter video downloader 2024 年 4 月 15 日 上午 8:12

    May I just say what a comfort to uncover somebody that genuinely knows what they’re talking about over the internet. You definitely know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More people need to check this out and understand this side of the story. I was surprised that you are not more popular given that you certainly have the gift.

  • link bokep
    link bokep 2024 年 4 月 14 日 下午 10:37

    I take pleasure in, cause I discovered just what I used to be having a look for. You have ended my 4 day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day. Bye

  • video porno
    video porno 2024 年 4 月 14 日 下午 3:43

    Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an very long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Regardless, just wanted to say excellent blog!

  • worldwide sports radio
    worldwide sports radio 2024 年 4 月 14 日 上午 9:04

    An interesting discussion is worth comment. I believe that you should publish more about this subject matter, it might not be a taboo matter but usually folks don’t speak about these topics. To the next! Many thanks.

  • link bokep
    link bokep 2024 年 4 月 14 日 上午 2:42

    One other issue is that if you are in a problem where you do not possess a cosigner then you may actually want to try to exhaust all of your financial aid options. You’ll find many awards and other scholarships and grants that will offer you money to assist with institution expenses. Thanks alot : ) for the post.

  • kontol kuda
    kontol kuda 2024 年 4 月 13 日 下午 11:25

    Hello! I simply want to give an enormous thumbs up for the nice data you’ve gotten right here on this post. I can be coming again to your blog for more soon.

  • situs bokep
    situs bokep 2024 年 4 月 13 日 下午 2:26

    You really make it seem so easy together with your presentation however I to find this topic to be really something which I believe I would never understand. It seems too complex and very huge for me. I am looking ahead in your next post, I will try to get the cling of it!

  • situs porno
    situs porno 2024 年 4 月 13 日 上午 10:42

    Good day! I know this is kinda off topic nevertheless I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog post or vice-versa? My site covers a lot of the same topics as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you’re interested feel free to shoot me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!

  • situs bokep
    situs bokep 2024 年 4 月 13 日 上午 6:32

    Thanks for expressing your ideas with this blog. In addition, a delusion regarding the financial institutions intentions any time talking about property foreclosures is that the lender will not take my payments. There is a fair bit of time the bank will require payments occasionally. If you are as well deep within the hole, they may commonly call that you pay that payment in whole. However, i am not saying that they will not take any sort of installments at all. In the event you and the financial institution can seem to work anything out, the particular foreclosure process may halt. However, should you continue to miss payments within the new plan, the foreclosure process can just pick up where it left off.

  • hawkplay
    hawkplay 2024 年 4 月 12 日 下午 8:46

    The information shared is of top quality which has to get appreciated at all levels. Well done…

  • webcam
    webcam 2024 年 4 月 12 日 下午 7:48

    This is a very good tip especially to those fresh to the blogosphere. Simple but very precise information… Many thanks for sharing this one. A must read article!

  • situs bokep
    situs bokep 2024 年 4 月 12 日 下午 4:58

    Hi there! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came to give it a look. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Superb blog and brilliant design.

  • link bokep
    link bokep 2024 年 4 月 12 日 下午 2:56

    It’s appropriate time to make a few plans for the long run and it’s time to be happy. I’ve learn this post and if I could I wish to recommend you few attention-grabbing issues or tips. Perhaps you can write subsequent articles regarding this article. I desire to learn more things approximately it!

  • blackjack live
    blackjack live 2024 年 4 月 12 日 上午 5:46

    Very good article! We will be linking to this particularly great content on our website. Keep up the great writing.

  • bokep indo
    bokep indo 2024 年 4 月 11 日 下午 11:42

    I have learned a number of important things via your post. I’d also like to convey that there is a situation where you will have a loan and never need a co-signer such as a U.S. Student Aid Loan. However, if you are getting a borrowing arrangement through a common loan company then you need to be prepared to have a cosigner ready to assist you to. The lenders will certainly base their own decision using a few factors but the greatest will be your credit rating. There are some loan providers that will as well look at your job history and make up your mind based on that but in many instances it will be based on on your score.

  • link bokep
    link bokep 2024 年 4 月 11 日 下午 9:32

    I just like the valuable info you provide to your articles. I?ll bookmark your blog and take a look at once more here regularly. I’m somewhat certain I?ll learn lots of new stuff proper here! Good luck for the following!

  • video porno
    video porno 2024 年 4 月 11 日 上午 9:17

    Generally I don’t read article on blogs, but I would like to say that this write-up very compelled me to take a look at and do it! Your writing style has been amazed me. Thank you, quite great article.

  • Zoom
    Zoom 2024 年 4 月 11 日 上午 4:32

    Hi, I do think this is an excellent web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I may come back once again since I book marked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.

  • bokep jepang
    bokep jepang 2024 年 4 月 11 日 上午 2:36

    Magnificent site. A lot of useful info here. I?m sending it to a few buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And naturally, thanks on your effort!

  • situs porno
    situs porno 2024 年 4 月 10 日 上午 3:13

    Good post. I study one thing more difficult on completely different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to read content from other writers and follow slightly something from their store. I?d favor to use some with the content material on my blog whether or not you don?t mind. Natually I?ll offer you a link in your net blog. Thanks for sharing.

  • film porno
    film porno 2024 年 4 月 10 日 上午 2:36

    It’s a pity you don’t have a donate button! I’d without a doubt donate to this brilliant blog! I suppose for now i’ll settle for bookmarking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to new updates and will talk about this blog with my Facebook group. Chat soon!

  • bokep jepang
    bokep jepang 2024 年 4 月 10 日 上午 12:20

    This web page can be a walk-via for the entire data you needed about this and didn?t know who to ask. Glimpse here, and you?ll positively uncover it.

  • bokep indo
    bokep indo 2024 年 4 月 9 日 下午 5:07

    Hi my friend! I want to say that this post is amazing, nice written and include approximately all significant infos. I?d like to see more posts like this.

  • Elf bar vape
    Elf bar vape 2024 年 4 月 9 日 上午 3:46

    Thank you for this article. I would also like to express that it can always be hard when you’re in school and starting out to initiate a long history of credit. There are many learners who are only trying to make it and have an extended or good credit history can sometimes be a difficult factor to have.

  • kontol kuda
    kontol kuda 2024 年 4 月 9 日 上午 12:42

    Hi there! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came to look it over. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Outstanding blog and superb design.

  • Elf bar vape
    Elf bar vape 2024 年 4 月 8 日 下午 5:51

    Aw, this was a really nice post. In thought I wish to put in writing like this additionally ? taking time and actual effort to make a very good article? but what can I say? I procrastinate alot and not at all appear to get something done.

  • link bokep
    link bokep 2024 年 4 月 8 日 上午 9:47

    I have figured out some new things from your web page about pcs. Another thing I have always presumed is that laptop computers have become a product that each home must have for several reasons. They offer convenient ways in which to organize the home, pay bills, go shopping, study, tune in to music and perhaps watch tv series. An innovative method to complete every one of these tasks has been a mobile computer. These pcs are mobile, small, robust and transportable.

  • Flum vape
    Flum vape 2024 年 4 月 8 日 上午 3:12

    I was curious if you ever thought of changing the layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  • bokep jepang
    bokep jepang 2024 年 4 月 8 日 上午 2:09

    Just want to say your article is as astonishing. The clearness in your post is just spectacular and i could assume you are an expert on this subject. Well with your permission allow me to grab your feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please continue the enjoyable work.

  • administrasi bandung
    administrasi bandung 2024 年 4 月 7 日 下午 8:07

    Hey there! I’ve been following your weblog for some time now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Huffman Texas! Just wanted to mention keep up the good job!

  • bandung
    bandung 2024 年 4 月 7 日 下午 5:41

    Can I just say what a aid to seek out someone who truly knows what theyre speaking about on the internet. You positively know how one can deliver an issue to mild and make it important. More individuals need to learn this and perceive this facet of the story. I cant believe youre no more popular because you positively have the gift.

  • Flum vape
    Flum vape 2024 年 4 月 7 日 下午 5:03

    Hello, you used to write great, but the last few posts have been kinda boring? I miss your great writings. Past several posts are just a bit out of track! come on!

  • Lost mary vape
    Lost mary vape 2024 年 4 月 7 日 上午 7:34

    I’ve observed that in the world the present day, video games are the latest fad with kids of all ages. Occasionally it may be difficult to drag your kids away from the video games. If you want the best of both worlds, there are various educational activities for kids. Thanks for your post.

This site is protected by wp-copyrightpro.com