購買原油ETF是百年一遇的機遇或慘劇？
楊惟婷 2home.co
一、百年一遇的機遇或慘劇？
西德州中級原油 (WTI) 5 月期貨合約4月20日出現史詩級的跌法（破天荒崩跌到-37美元)，史上首見，並使許多跟石油連結的產業立馬變成「慘業」。例如，
台塑石化必須建立2個月的安全庫存量，所以說元月從卡達買進的油價是68美元，現在進到麥寮港，油價剩零頭。致台塑石化第1季虧損99.93億元，4月可能非常慘烈。
此種期貨合約平倉價殺到變成負數，代表全世界經濟活動急凍，石油儲槽已全部儲滿油，現在只要有人把油運走，油商都願意貼錢，這是非常極端的現象！
尤其，這次油價重災區在西德州原油（WTI），歷史上，WTI與北海布蘭特原油價差都在2到5美元之間，這次布蘭特原油在25.37美元，WTI卻變成負值，可以想見美國頁岩油產量出現災難性的毀滅，油商破產、金融機構也可能倒閉，這真的是百年一遇慘狀。
二、賣方壓低結算的劇本可以演幾次？
此次慘劇還有一群大咖也在大吃原油豆腐，就是原油生產商及貿易商，他們先租用大油輪或是找到儲油槽存放，並在期貨巿場放空遠月合約，以5、6月的合約來看就差了一倍價格，若是再遠月差了2倍，這群有錢人真懂得賺錢之道，當然，因全球大部份地方已無處存油，所以這些大盤商就租用油輪，當成海上儲存槽，間接也帶動了油輪的日租金，只要價差超過租金就有利可圖！
過去在2008年也曾出現三次這樣的空頭打壓，皆是利用到期結算壓低現貨，迫使期貨結算在低點。此次也可看到次月之後的原油期貨合約皆在22元以上，9月的期貨甚至是超過30元，這就是在比誰的胳臂粗，先把近期的多頭打爆再說。
就算您知道現在是油價底部，但假若此種慘劇，連著三次重演，每期都壓低結算，那持有原油ETF的人會十分淒慘，每期都被吃豆腐，每天淨值都在損耗，因為萬一在底部磨個三個月、半年，買原油ETF會被損耗到氣力無存。
例如元大原油ETF及原油正2 ETF，怕是不用到9月份淨值就剩不到0.5元了。
再逆向思考，原油再怎麼不繼也不太可能長期維持在10元，此次期貨結算也有可能是最後的壓低動作，就算後面想再玩一、二次壓低結算的動作，但因為OPEC+
已經要開始減產，空頭下次再壓低的條件會不如這次，所以不一定能再討到好處了！
很可惜的是，就算您明明知道現在油價是在底部，但如何能找到適合的投資工具，在風險可控制下，獲得超額利潤？
三、元大S&P原油正2還有明天嗎？
搶搭油價反彈列車，元大S&P原油正2 ETF（00672L）忘了他吧！
如果您看清楚它的持股權重與價格溢價，不難心寒，其實更划算的選擇就是它的兄弟——元大S&P石油（00642U）。
由於正2槓桿已不到200%，所以未來淨值回不去了。
首先，這檔商品的名字「正2」，投資人可能預期槓桿應該要開到2倍，也就是200%，但經過負油價的震撼教育後，其實正2已經不正2了。
根據元大投信網站資料，原本在公開發行書上敘明，元大油2持倉應以最近月與次近月合約為主的原則，在避免淨值耗損下已被打破，最近竟出現期貨合約買到12月去的情況。目前油正2持股權重僅121%，遠低於投資人想像中的200%，
目前元大油正2改買遠月期貨合約，雖降風險，但槓桿倍數不如預期，沒有達到200%、持有的又是12月期貨部位，近兩天西德州原油6月期貨漲多少，其實元大油2投資人只能喝到湯，所以未來淨值回不去了。
至於它的兄弟元大S&P石油（00642U），目前持股權重近100%，契約年月元大油正2一樣是12月，兩檔ETF由同一個團隊管理，本質上似乎差別不大。
但兩檔商品目前差別最大的地方，應該就是「溢價」比例。
以今4月24日天盤中的最新溢價數據為例，元大油正2溢價達370%，遠高於元大油1的41%，其實溢價就等於「買貴」的概念，投資人若用370%溢價買ETF，未來就是會少賺370%，所以傻瓜才買「正2」。
若衡量目前元大油正2與元大油1的槓桿倍數差距不大，但溢價卻有近9倍差距，再加上元大油正2目前淨值才剛守住0.5，預估12月油價必須漲到每桶100元才可能讓淨值站回下市門檻之上，所以比較起來買元大油1相對穩健且划算。
國際油價大崩盤，同樣的悲劇也發生在美國最大石油ETF（United States Oil Fund，USO）身上！
USO過去兩個月暴跌75%，讓空頭海削近3億美元。在油價殺到負數之際，USO除了改變基金持倉結構，還發布拆股計畫。亦即進行反向股票分割，將8股合併為1股，減少流通股數量，並拉抬股價。
值得注意的是，USO這次拆股，除了增加股票買賣與流動性，還可確保股票交易價格高於最低上市要求。
隨著油價崩跌，USO於21日公告改變持倉結構，55%資產投入紐約7月原油期貨，40%資產投入6月原油期貨，5%資產投入8月原油期貨。由於USO更改投資架構，是反映原油「未來的價格」，並非「現貨價」，投資人抄底要更小心。因為，買入石油ETF的散戶，以為自己買的是原油現貨價，但其實是下個月的原油價格；也就是在現貨價為每桶負38美元時，投資人付了每桶22美元價格買入。散戶若持續瘋狂押石油ETF，恐怕錢會輸光光。
四、如何找到適合的投資工具，火中取栗？
(一) 先了解商品期貨ETF本質
當國際油價崩跌，WTI 5月原油期貨合約驚見前所未有的負值，近來受市場熱議的石油 ETF乃吸引許多買盤搶進，如果你認為「油價一定會反彈，趁現在跌深就瘋買石油 ETF起來放即可」，那可誤會大了，因這類期貨ETF本質與股票、一般現貨ETF不同，並不一定都適合長期持有。
從過去富邦 VIX 到原油正 2，讓不少投資人慘賠的經驗，下手前應先弄清楚三個觀念，才不會血本無歸還搞不清楚原因。
1、這類期貨ETF追蹤指數、合約月份不同，影響程度也不同
目前國內熱門石油 ETF 為元大 S&P 原油正 2、街口布蘭特油正 2，前者追蹤的是西德州原油指數，後者為布蘭特原油指數。這次出現負油價的是西德州原油期貨，布蘭特原油期貨價雖也下跌，但每桶仍有 17 美元，因此街口油 2 受到的衝擊較小。
此外，期貨價格有分月份，所以 5 月西德州原油跌到負數時，6 月與 12 月期貨價仍收在每桶 20.43 美元與 32 美元。
原油正 2 在 4 月 7 日至 4 月 13 日間已將持倉部位轉為 6 月期貨和 12 月期貨，因此逃過這場空前災難。從原油正 2 公開說明書上可看到，每月第 5 個到第 9 個營業日，ETF 就會由近月轉倉到次近月期貨。這樣做可避免持倉拖到最後交易日，趨避指數跌落負值帶來的衝擊。
而另一檔元大S&P石油ETF持倉部位為 12 月期貨，因此波動較低，但溢價仍有 40%，代表想押油價報復性反彈的投機買盤很多。
2、想抱著等油價回漲？先考慮這類期貨ETF的換倉成本
期貨合約都有到期日，假設持有 5 月合約到期後，要繼續持有到 6 月，就必須要「賣掉 5 月合約，買進 6 月合約」，轉換合約時候的價差，就是轉倉成本。
通常比較遠月份的期貨價格，會比近月份的期貨價格高，如此一來轉倉就會「買高、賣低」，長期下來自然會吃掉 ETF 的收益，所以想長抱仍要考慮轉倉成本。
3、這類期貨ETF淨值不幸歸零，投資人會虧掉全數本金
原油期貨合約價出現負數，意味著石油 ETF 淨值也可能跌到負數。按現行法令，假如基金淨值跌到負值，即由投信公司承擔虧損，投資人最大損失就是「賠盡本金」。
不過，就算原油期貨價跌破 0元，相關 ETF淨值也不太可能歸零或變負數。
理論上持有期貨合約跌破維持保證金，期貨商就要砍倉，這樣一來 ETF 多少都還會剩一點淨值。
而且，ETF若淨值過低、無錢投資經營時，依契約規定仍可能下市，投資人還是得特別注意。
(二)投資人比較可行的操作策略
1、保守型投資人比較可行的操作策略，是等短底成形後，在轉強時才介入投資原油ETF，並以波段的方式操作，而在還没築出底部前就保持觀望，以免在等待中消耗淨值。
2、積極型投資人比較可行的操作策略，是金字塔型定點投資元大S&P石油ETF，其溢價尚未浮誇，近期在7.49元底部區爆出歷史天量，此區域開始進行金字塔型定點佈局，風險應可控，若怕世道混沌，可搭配少部份富邦 VIX，以抵抗黑天鵝突然降臨。
3、另類投資術——-散裝航運股
近來油價跌跌不休，此卻有助用油成本高的海運業者營運表現，再加上 BDI(波羅的海綜合指數) 近日已漲逾 7%，反映中國復工帶動原物料需求回溫，再加上第二季為農產品收成旺季，散裝航運市況已見觸底復甦。
在新冠肺炎疫情衝擊下，第一季 BDI 指數區間僅 400-700 點，低於去年的平均值 1350 點，中大型船舶現貨運價均低於航商營運成本價，第一季航商虧損壓力重。
不過，進入第二季後，儘管 4 月以來仍見到疫情衝擊歐美需求，使散裝航商反彈力道受限制，不過，近期油價暴跌，有利航商營運成本大幅下滑，法人更看好，即將進入下半年北半球穀物和煤炭運輸旺季，散裝運價有望出現較大幅度反彈，營運觸底回穩可期。
另一方面，法人也指出，目前中國鐵礦砂庫存量約 1.16 億噸，低於近 3 年平均 1.4 億噸水準，隨著中國基建計畫陸續出籠拉抬經濟，可望再拉升一波庫存回補需求。
故可留意的相關散裝航運業者有新興 (2605-TW)、台航 (2617-TW) 和中航 (2612-TW) 等。
尤其，新興海岬型船舶僅 2 艘是合約船，其餘均為現貨船，可望受惠油輪租金走高提振運價；而中航營收來源是散裝和貨櫃陸運各占一半，隨著散裝市況有築底回穩之勢，搭配陸運具穩健獲利能力，營運可望轉好。
而台航近 2 年陸續建造新船舶，目前共有 8 艘在建新船，包括 6 艘 Panamax 和 2 艘 Handymax 型船舶，預計明年起陸續交船，可望呈現先蹲後跳模式。
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