應用ETF存股之道
2home.co 楊惟婷
當實體經濟衰退與資金氾濫巧遇，股市又逆天大漲，這種天人交戰的心境，就連股神也很難進行價值投資選股，此時，若不願退隱山林，不如就隨世浮沈買指數吧！
例如，股神巴菲特2019年第4季，破天荒買入兩檔美股ETF，究竟 ETF有何魅力呢？難道ETF會比股神更神？
一、何謂「ETF（指數股票型基金）」？
ETF是英文Exchange-Traded Fund的縮寫，意思是可以在交易所交易的基金。
而台灣證交所將 ETF 定名為「指數股票型基金」，通常投資於一籃子證券或商品，追蹤特定指數 (或商品) 績效表現，優點在於，投資組合透明、不受人為操控、走勢緊貼市場指數(故又稱被動型基金)、可分散風險。
若將「指數股票型基金」這個名稱拆成三部分，正好可以說明ETF是什麼。
首先是「指數」，ETF被設計成被動追蹤某一指數的表現，是一項指數化投資的商品；
其次是「股票型」，ETF透過獨特交易架構的設計，使它可以像一般股票在集中市場掛牌交易；
最後是「基金」，ETF在國內是採取類似共同基金的模式，由投信公司管理，並發行受益憑證做為資產持有的表徵。
總而言之，ETF是被動追蹤某一指數表現的共同基金，其投資組合儘可能的完全比照指數的成分股組成，並且在集中市場掛牌，如同一般股票交易買賣。
二、ETF的商品分類
目前台灣掛牌交易的200多檔 ETF，依資產類別可區分為股票型、債券型、商品型三大類：
1、股票型 ETF
追蹤股票市場的指數，在台灣知名度最高的就是大家熟悉的 0050。股票 ETF 追蹤的股票市場指數可以是單一國家指數、區域指數、產業指數或者特定主題的指數。
2、債券型 ETF
追蹤、模擬或複製之標的指數成分為債券之 ETF，提供投資人債券指數的報酬。投資人可以依據信用評等、投資地區、特定產業等進行選擇，包括投資級債券、高收益債、新興市場債、可轉債及通膨指數債券 ETF 等。
3、商品型 ETF
透過期貨提供投資人原物料等商品的報酬，例如石油、黃金、黃豆，白銀等。
三、「懶人投資法」
ETF投資在近年來成為顯學，說到ETF許多投資人可能會馬上聯想到「懶人投資法」。通常，一般人對ETF的理解有二，一是能分散標的風險，二是長期下來績效能打敗大盤；而且少了挑選標的困擾，傻傻存又能擊敗指數。事實上，ETF擁有交易成本較低、風險分散、透明度高等投資優勢，適合不想燒腦研究財報、時刻緊盯金融市場變化的投資人。
近年來，ETF（指數股票型基金）已成台灣投資人新寵，元大台灣50（0050）和元大高股息（0056），更是極受歡迎的「國民ETF」。
近期，美中緊張情勢升溫，市場面臨諸多不確定因素，而投資0050只要切記，別讓太多資訊干擾紀律，正因市場難以判斷，所以只要大盤站上季線1個月，多頭趨勢確立，就可採取「K值小於20買，K值大於80賣」的操作方式，投資0050。
四、原型、反向型、槓桿型ETF
國內自從2003年第1檔ETF上市以來，目前已有200多檔ETF掛牌交易，其中，大家耳熟能詳的元大台灣50和元大高股息，都是屬於傳統的原型ETF，而槓桿型ETF如元大S&P原油正2、反向型ETF如元大台灣50反1，已成了外資避險新工具、散戶追捧的新寵。
每當市場處高檔，投資人居高思危，避險資金湧入反向型ETF，也就是追蹤標的指數報酬反向表現的ETF。舉例來說，台股站上1萬點之後，就有許多投資人買進「元大台灣50反1」，不僅創下了全台灣規模最大的ETF，還曾經一度成為全球規模最大的反向型ETF。
至於槓桿型ETF，它的操作模式是透過金融衍生性商品讓投資績效加乘，可幫助投資人賺得超額利潤。舉例來說，如果指數報酬率為1%，2倍槓桿型ETF就是2倍、得到2%報酬率；但如果遇到指數下跌時，損失也是2倍。在油價大跌時，投資人押注油價反彈，就會透過槓桿2倍的原油ETF來賺取超額報酬。
但投資人若認為透過ETF追蹤油價、金價，便能跟著商品漲跌賺到價差，這就是天大的誤會。ETF有基本面供需情況、市價與淨值的折溢價關係、連結的金融商品特性、還有可能下市的風險，所以投資前不可不知。
例如2020年4月21日，國際油價狂瀉，原油5月期貨更跌至-37美元，首度出現「負油價」！另外，槓桿型ETF、反向型ETF這兩種ETF的投資方式、漲跌幅、成本等，都和原型ETF大不同。
總之，反向及槓桿型ETF的內涵和操作，與大家所認識的原型ETF並不一樣，因此投資人在買進之前，一定要弄清楚以下4大迷思：
迷思1：交易成本低？
ETF的優點是交易成本低、簡單易懂，但槓桿及反向型ETF卻剛好相反。原型ETF是投資一籃子相關股票，槓桿型和反向型ETF則是透過買賣相關期貨，來達到模擬所追蹤的指數2倍、3倍或反向的效果，因此，交易成本和績效大不同。
期貨合約是每個月結算，無法長期持有，同時期貨還有轉倉成本，也就是先結算本月期貨、換買下個月期貨的成本，因此有時可能費用較高。長期下來，投資期貨型ETF轉倉磨耗比股票型ETF來得高，會造成ETF淨值減損。
由於槓桿型、反向型ETF是「單日2倍」或「單日反向」，基金經理人須以期貨每日調整曝險來達到模擬指數的效果，這意味著，每日頻繁的進出，長期下來產生的成本，將會一點一滴吃掉基金的淨值。
迷思2：適合長期持有？
一般人總以為買進ETF，就是買進股票，即使股價下跌，只要不賣出，早晚股價會回來，因此可以長期持有。但事實上，槓桿型和反向型ETF並非買進股票，而是買期貨，不只交易成本較高，還有合約到期的價格波動風險，會吃掉基金的淨值，持有越久，成本越高，淨值會逐漸流失，並不適合長期持有。
所以，如果要累積退休金準備，可選擇原型ETF，如台灣50、高股息等，透過投資一籃子股票，且有配息，適合當作長期投資的存股標的。
相反的，槓桿和反向型ETF適合短期、波段操作。如果趨勢明確、且從低檔布局，往往能透過槓桿得到豐厚報酬。
迷思3：不需停損停利？
即使市場漲漲跌跌，對於長期投資原型ETF的人，不需要停損停利，反而可以透過分批買進、攤平成本，達到降低投資風險的效果。
相反的，作為短線避險或套利的槓桿型、反向型ETF，卻不能因為套牢而將其轉成長期投資，否則可能會越套越牢。除非是盤整行情，可利用操作槓桿及反向型ETF來避險或短線獲利。但一旦看錯方向、要認輸時，就要趕快停損，千萬不能用分批布局、攤平的概念進行操作。因此，槓桿型、反向型ETF的策略，須做好風險控管，並設好停利和停損點，才能留得青山在。
迷思4：沒有下市風險？
很多人認為，買進ETF很安全，不會有下市風險，但今年卻有兩檔ETF一度面臨下市危機，包括與市場走勢反向的富邦VIX、槓桿型的元大S&P原油正2。
根據金管會原本的規定，期貨投信公司發行ETF，近3個營業日的平均淨值較發行價下跌90%，或平均規模低於新台幣2,000萬元，須強制下市。舉例來說，若ETF發行價為10元，當ETF淨值跌破1元，連續3日就應該要下市。
例如以恐慌指數為追蹤標的的富邦VIX，由於美股持續上漲，一度讓該檔VIX淨值持續下跌至接近2元，幾乎已達下市標準。只不過，2月底新冠肺炎疫情升溫，股市下跌、VIX上漲，才讓這檔ETF逃過一劫。
同樣的，元大S&P原油正2也曾因油價暴跌，淨值快速跌破2元，來到下市標準，後來金管會公布一個「豁免條款」：放寬至今年9月30日前，可以暫時豁免下市。雖然短線上油價稍有反彈，但這檔ETF仍有下市風險，投資人不可不慎。
總之，投資人必須釐清觀念，槓桿型和反向型ETF適合短期、波段操作，同時要做好風險控管，並設好停利和停損點，才能避免因市場震盪而賠錢，或者被交易成本侵蝕了獲利。
五、ETF存股4關鍵步驟
ETF 商品琳瑯滿目到底該怎麼挑？其實，投資ETF就是讓你不必再去選股，你只要去研究每一檔ETF的指數成分性質。
目前國內發行的ETF產品超過200種、內容豐富多元，但同時也令人看得眼花撩亂，其實只要透過簡單的4步驟就能輕鬆挑出優質ETF：
步驟1：先了解ETF追蹤的指數成分
每檔ETF都有一個追蹤指數，也就是基準指數（Benchmark），決定投資標的及資產類別。挑選ETF投入前，第一步就是搞清楚它到底投資什麼？
以中國ETF來說，台灣投資人有超過20種選擇，儘管從名稱上來看投資的都是中國股市，但背後有的是追蹤MSCI成分股，有的追蹤富時成分股，也有追蹤滬深300或上證50指數的產品，隨著追蹤指數不同，投資中國各產業的比例也就不同。
舉例來說，若您看好「宅經濟」投資概念，「線上經濟」持股占比超過5成的中信中國50ETF，主要成分股包括：阿里巴巴、騰訊及線上教育公司新東方、好未來等；若看好未來中國線上經濟發展，就可留意該ETF。
步驟2：看ETF淨值的折溢價
ETF淨值的意思，是一籃子投資標的計算出來的價值，也是買進ETF時重要的參考價；而市價則是市場上的買賣交易價格，只要你情我願，就能成交的金額，一般會由市場供需情況決定。當市價高於淨值時，ETF就呈現溢價；反之當市價低於淨值時，就是折價。
ETF若出現折、溢價時，就會引發市場資金套利需求，當ETF市價低於淨值時，折價買進；當ETF市價高於淨值時，溢價賣出。
另外，不管是證交所的基本市況報導網站或是各大投信業者自己的網站上，都可找到即時估計的折溢價資訊，且每15秒都會更新一次。
步驟3：成交量
交易ETF還有一個特性跟股票一樣，一定要買得到、賣得掉才是王道。儘管理論上來說，買賣ETF根本不該擔心買不到、賣不掉的問題，因為ETF發行業者（投信）都會與造市商（證券業者）合作，造市商有必要提供「流動性」，也就是說當市場上出現ETF賣壓或是追買的需求時，造市商會介入市場吸收或釋出籌碼，以維持ETF成交市價趨近淨值，但造市商積極程度可能不一，因此投資人在挑選標的時，也應該將ETF的成交量納入考量，以免買進了一檔ETF在想脫手時卻出現賣不掉的窘境。
尤其，一檔ETF如果流動性差、交易冷門，比較容易出現買賣價差大的問題，投資人買賣可能會產生額外的價差成本。想避免遇到不及格的造市商，多觀察ETF過往的交易量能紀錄是最好的方法。
步驟4：內扣費用越低越好
投資ETF目的，在獲得與「追蹤指數」一樣的報酬；因此好的ETF，理論上也要能完全複製指數，當指數上漲3%時，ETF漲幅應跟漲3%。
但實務上，ETF為建立與指數相同的組合，會產生許多費用，包括手續費、交易稅、經理費及管理費等，這些內扣費用會讓指數與ETF報酬有段差距，也就是所謂的「追蹤誤差」。
例如，有兩檔ETF追蹤相同指數，其中一檔內扣費用低，每年追蹤誤差只有0.1%，另一檔內扣費用較高，每年追蹤誤差達0.5%。假如同時投資10萬元，每年兩者的績效差距就有400元，且投資時間越長，報酬差異就越大，拉長時間來看，ETF的獲利就會大幅落後指數。
內扣費用是造成ETF追蹤誤差很重要的因素，為避免ETF長期報酬率被追蹤誤差吃掉，使指數投資效果大打折扣，投資人在挑選ETF時，就要比較相關費用；收費越低，對指數追蹤效果越好。而實務操作上，內扣費用高低也與ETF規模大小，及指數追蹤技術有關。
一般來說，規模越大的ETF，營運成本占總規模比例就越低，支出成本也較低。像有些ETF管理費就會視規模大小而做調整；例如，ETF規模在20億元以下，管理費為0.45%；20至50億元，管理費為0.35%；超過50億元、管理費則是0.3%。當然，有些ETF會改良指數追蹤方式，透過較新的技術達到複製目標，降低交易成本。
總之，投資ETF時，只要根據上述的4步驟精挑細選，就可以「懶人存股」了。
五、ETF另類挑選心法
國內財經作家施棠、ETF 達人黃柏仁也曾傳授心法，只要掌握3個訣竅布局，就算不懂挑選個股，也能輕鬆參與市場：
1、資產規模高：
代表市場流通性較好，若資產規模太低，可能會遭直接清算下市，以當時淨值歸還投資人本金。
2、追蹤誤差低：
追蹤誤差越小，代表 ETF 表現越接近所追蹤的指數，越能帶給投資人貼近和追蹤指數一樣的報酬，誤差比率如果等於總內扣費用比率，就是 ETF 績效最好的表現。
3、避開槓桿及反向 ETF：
槓桿型和反向型 ETF 是透過期貨交易模擬指數、交易成本較高，不適合用作退休規劃和長期持有，只適合短線交易，並嚴設停損。
六、跋—-夸父追日
近年來，全球股市不斷的向上奔馳，3月股災發生前，道瓊指數尚朝30000點大關邁進，台股也重返12000點逼近新高。
此全球股市大漲且大市值企業出現不斷沸騰，背後最大推手就是被動式基金ETF。
例如，美股漲勢多集中在Apple、Microsoft、Aphabet、Amazon及FB的FAAMG五檔股票上；亞洲股市則看台灣的台積電，南韓三星及大陸阿里巴巴及騰訊等四檔個股延燒。台股站上12000點，一些大型權值股如台積電、聯發科、大立光、鴻海等大漲，最主要的推力也是被動型基金ETF！
因近年來全球利率走低，負殖利率債券一度逼近17兆美元，使得龐大游資湧入ETF。過去幾年，全球ETF已成長數倍，現在規模已達6兆美元。
到2019年中，全球股票型ETF吸走4兆美元。其中前五大ETF淨值超過8000億美元。這種型態的股票基金以每個市場前50大市值為標的，全部瞄準一個國家最有競爭力的產業及公司，又稱為被動式基金。美國銀行的ETF策略師估到2030年全球ETF部位將達50兆美元。
又如，根據日本《朝日新聞》報導，日本央行公布了2019 年度(2019年4月至2020年3月) 財報，持有的 ETF 時價總額報31.2 兆日圓，較去年同期增加7.9% 或2.3 兆日圓。
ETF 是與日經平均指數 (Nikkei 225)，還有與其他股價指數相互連動的金融商品。買進的個股範圍相當廣泛，日本央行也成為間接股東。就日本央行在2020年3月底的 ETF 持有額來看，其規模占了東證一部上市企業時價總額的5.8%。
日本央行已透過 ETF 持有56家公司的10%以上股票。較去年的37家公司出現大幅增長。日本央行持續加碼買進 ETF，很有可能在今年內就會成為日本股市的最大股東。
所以，未來全球股市將成也ETF，敗也ETF，大型股會愈炒愈貴，直到倒下為止。
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