一顆蘋果救台灣?
2home.co 楊惟婷
全球第三大的蘋果代工廠緯創於7月17日宣布,以33億元人民幣出售旗下緯新資通(昆山、江蘇)組裝工廠,給蘋果大力扶植的大陸本土組裝大廠立訊集團,業界擔心台灣蘋果代工廠儼然已敲響警鐘了。
一、台系蘋果供應鏈面臨轉型
對台系蘋果供應鏈代工廠而言,營運表現好壞往往都是「成也蘋果、敗也蘋果」。
但為何緯創好不容易吃下蘋果iPhone訂單,茹苦含辛做了幾年生意就要出脫旗下工廠,把年營收近1,500億元的生意讓給大陸代工廠立訊,緯創資通董事長林憲銘心中到底在想什麼?
緯創自從在2015年切入蘋果代工組裝,取得低價機iPhone SE訂單,讓營收快速成長,卻長期在iPhone相關業務虧損;尤其緯創這幾年最大的問題,就在於接下iPhone手機訂單,但代工良率始終拉不起來,所以必須忍受低毛利率的壓力。
若翻開緯創財報就能發現,2019年緯創匯進大陸緯新昆山投資金額就高達30.55億元,累計總投資金額高達477億元;但在認列收益上,去年才認列2.6億元,也就是說,過去多年的投資根本無法回本。且這次緯創賣出大陸手機廠僅回收133億元,相對於累計投資477億元的付出來說,只能說少輸為贏的辛酸。
再從緯新2019年營收來看,該年度總營收1,422.11億元新台幣,所以緯創現在出脫大陸工廠,雖2021年緯創將短少近1,500億元新台幣營收;但從獲利來看,僅減少2.96億元新台幣;再以緯新目前淨值120.53億元新台幣來看,緯創這筆交易以33億元人民幣出售也沒賺頭。
其實,從立訊先後取得連接器、AirPod藍芽耳機等訂單,就可看出緯創在三大iPhone代工廠敬陪末座的角色,很可能在新一輪iPhone代工洗牌中緯創會率先出局。所以林憲銘下此壯士斷腕決定,應是已看出蘋果刻意扶植大陸代工廠的決心。老三緯創若仍執意苦守大陸組裝廠,未來勢將面臨更大削價競爭。
目前,由於在中美貿易戰下,在「去中化」氛圍下,蘋果為轉移經營風險,必須將iPhone組裝重心分散移往印度、越南。例如美國近日前發布新版實體名單,就有 11 家中國企業被列入名單當中,其中也包含蘋果的主要供應商中國觸控面板公司「歐菲光集團」(O-Film) 南昌子公司,此舉即在動搖消費電子產品供應鏈,並加速中美脫鉤。所以蘋果建立iPhone「非陸製」供應鏈的政策勢在必行,因此一方面施壓緯創賣廠立訊,改由陸廠生產iPhone外,也逼著鴻海、和碩前進印度,擴大「非陸製」iPhone產能。
雖然緯創在印度率先替蘋果興建iPhone組裝廠,但隨著鴻海、和碩都陸續推動赴印度設廠,緯創在蘋果的地位也不像過去重要。所以,緯創選擇此時售廠,或許可在不增加資源投入下,換取「非大陸」蘋果供應鏈的一席之地。
另外,未來緯創應也會淡出蘋果鏈,成為和廣達、緯穎一樣的純伺服器代工廠,此舉反而有利市場調高緯創的評價基礎。
二、紅色供應鏈來襲!
蘋果公司為了壓低代工價格,扶持「紅色供應鏈」的崛起,製造競爭是必然策略。例如,大陸舜宇光學、韓國三星電機 (SEMCO) 將進入蘋果手機供應鏈,亦使鴻海旗下夏普轉投資的日本光學鏡頭廠康達智 (Kantasu),明年面臨退出供應鏈的壓力。其實這就是電子代工廠的宿命,過去NB進入零成長期後,國際品牌大廠就開始加緊Cost Down,讓台灣的NB代工廠去競標,價低者得,最後就變成 “毛三到四” (毛利率3-4%)。現在,智慧型手機也進入成長高原期,雖然有4G切換5G的規格升級,但總量還是一樣的,多一家代工廠只會打壞價格並分食大餅而已,對台灣代工廠長期來說絕非好事。
立訊集團的創辦人王來春早年在鴻海的蘋果代工廠富士康當了10年作業員,隨後創業做起零組件貿易商,並在2004年收購立訊,並成功複製鴻海集團當年成長模式,從機殼、感測、電池,在一連串收購策略下,目前立訊集團崛起的速度,已超越部分台系代工廠,未來將左右整體iPhone零組件購料與採購的對象。
過往大陸業者最擅長的策略就是打價格戰,立訊買下緯創工廠後,生產規模將大幅擴增,自然就更有本錢打價格戰。若未來中國大陸官方給予立訊各種補助支援,極可能就會在蘋果代工市場掀起價格戰,而直接威脅台灣代工廠。這次立訊收購緯創在大陸組裝工廠,被視為是紅色供應鏈來襲的重要訊號。
目前,雖然目前多數iPhone訂單仍掌握在鴻海、和碩手上,但立訊很可能在未來奪下部份iPhone 12訂單,衝擊台灣代工廠。台系代工廠能否挺得住,將攸關台灣蘋果供應鏈地位。
市場認為,立訊長期終將進入iPhone的組裝事業,由於iPhone新品周期縮短,若立訊進入iPhone組裝行列,可望降低蘋果新機開發與供應的風險。
而立訊積極打入蘋果供應鏈,不只是這次收購緯創大陸廠房,應意圖連同工廠、iPhone訂單全部吃下,也計畫搶攻MacBook、AirPods Pro供應鏈訂單,擴大全球布局,這使得鴻海等傳統蘋果代工廠備感壓力。
其實,未來蘋果iPhone供應鏈將持續洗牌下,不管鴻海與和碩也好,在iPhone代工的地位,短期內都不會被立訊超越,就算立訊接手緯創,也要看代工良率能否追上兩家大咖,否則也會跟緯創一樣吃到毒蘋果(沒法賺錢)。
三、立訊蠶食台系蘋果供應鏈
其實,立訊蠶食台資企業也不是今天才發生,令人震驚的是立訊快速崛起的速度,顯示王來春知人善用,而且是驍勇善戰。她帶領立訊打入蘋果供應鏈鍥而不捨的精神,和這種雖千萬人吾往矣的氣概,台灣電子業很多人恐怕不是她的對手。而郭董已退居二線,所以鴻海要特別小心!
在深圳掛牌的立訊,這兩年股價大幅上升,從2019年初的12.81人民幣漲到61.12人民幣,市值最高達2512億人民幣,約1.06兆台幣,已直逼鴻海的1.2兆台幣。王來春從富士康插件工廠女工搖身蛻變為蘋果供應鏈的重要成員,而且有取鴻海而代之之氣勢。所以,鴻海董事長劉揚偉甚至下令全面提高警戒!
另外,很難想像,2019年營收規模只有鴻海的1/20,獲利也只有鴻海的17.26%,目前僅擁有蘋果無線藍牙耳機和連接器訂單的立訊,在以買廠帶訂單的方式,取得搶進蘋果供應鏈門票後,在大陸深圳交易所掛牌的立訊精密市值即衝高到1.1兆元,遠超過鴻海的1.07兆元,成為全球電子製造代工業(EMS)市值最高的公司。
隨著立訊股價飆漲,今年53歲的王來春身家高達人民幣445億元(約新台幣1,868億元),相較於郭台銘的1,770億元有過之而無不及。而王來春的哥哥王來勝,也是立訊共同創辦人與大股東,兄妹倆的身價合計超過新台幣3,500億元。
蘋果為何會看上營收規模遠不如鴻海,僅幫蘋果代工組裝無線藍牙耳機AirPods的立訊,加入iPhone 12組裝代工之列?關鍵在於台系蘋果供應鏈廠商會做的,很多大陸代工廠商幾乎都會做了,而立訊就是鴻海自己培養出來的頭號競爭者。
若依複製鴻海集團成長模式來看,立訊下一步併吞策略為何?
1、利用併吞策略快速取得訂單
立訊擴大蘋果代工項目的企圖如司馬昭之心,目前立訊幫蘋果代工以穿戴式產品為主,包括TWS的Air Pods及Apple Watch,緯創在昆山的工廠以代工蘋果手機為主,因此立訊將順理成章的接手緯創的手機代工,昆山工廠主要是代工前一代的手機(前一代手機在隔年仍會有銷量),新款手機則是由鴻海及和碩代工,但是立訊有可能在站穩舊款手機後,逐步找機會擴大到新款手機,與前二家代工廠分食。
2、利用併吞策略快速取得技術
一家公司之所以願意讓外人入主,90%是公司營運已遇到瓶頸,10%是公司經營者要退休但二代不想接手。
我們先看看立訊之前入股的宣德及美律表現如何?
宣德在2012年之前是一家載浮載沈的連接器廠,營收連續二、三年負成長,正好遇上立訊想擴大營運,於是促成了合作,入股25.1%,宣德的營收在一年之後開始進入成長期,表示立訊的灌單開始發揮效用,中間一年的空白期應是在調整生產技術及營運組織,等到調整好,營運就開始起飛了,股價在大戶增持之下,也由入股時的10元漲到40元。
而2015年美律在手機的免持聽筒上出現連續性的衰退,主要是大陸的新競爭者壯大起來,開始分食原來的訂單,正好立訊需要聲學技術來切入Air Pods,二者一拍即合,立訊入股了美律25.4%,因為美律本身就有技術,所以這次灌單比較快,半年之後美律營收就開始上揚,股價在大戶增持之下,也由不到50元上漲到218元。
不過二家公司的榮景各維持了1.5年及1年,然後灌單效應就開始趨緩,營收成長力道及毛利率的改善有天花板效應,股價也各自沈寂了二年的時間,一直到去年宣德才又重新上漲,近期有再創新高,不過美律就沒那麼好,2018年之後一直只在大區間內震盪,二者開始出現分歧,因此立訊入主的效應在前面1-1.5年有效,後面就要看情形了。
3、利用併吞策略取得經濟規模來降低成本
立訊既然買下了手機組裝廠,未來就需要整合各式的手機零組件來降低成本,若去做OLED螢幕或晶片都不切實際,也非立訊的強項,但若從鋁鎂合金(或是不鏽鋼)機殼下手,則是一個營收夠大,且跟原來的沖壓或模鑄件有些類似工法。
而鴻海集團是主要競爭者,短期之內不太可能合作,所以枱面上能排的上名的就是獨立廠可成,以及和碩集團中營運一直沒有起色的鎧勝,巿場上對二家都有傳聞,考量蘋果的分散供應商策略,二選一的可能性較大。
(1)可成的可能性略小
可成近二年受到蘋果硬體產品已進入高原期的限制,毛利率逐年下滑,雖然也符合上述讓外人入股的條件,但可成帳上現金1100億以上,若想嚐試新的事業或者新的應用巿場(目前主要是往車用及醫療),並不缺錢。
短期之內蘋果的機殼雖然如雞肋食之無味,但若欲棄之也過早,在新事業做出成績之前,尚能維持公司的營收規模及絕對獲利數字,畢竟目前毛利率雖然遠不如幾年前的5成,但仍有24%,規模經濟夠大時,還是能擠出利潤。公司在自由現金流上也沒有問題,因此理論上被立訊入股的可能性較低。如上所述,可成口袋深,並沒有急迫性需求,不需要壓低姿態求售,所以達成交易的可能性應也不會過半,除非價格十分誘人。
(2)鎧勝的機率不小
鎧勝雖然是和碩集團的一員,但多年來營運載浮載沈,並沒有太受惠於和碩的代工單,目前主要以NB及iPad機殼為主要動能,尤其今年居家遠距需求,讓上述二項產品熱賣,出現一波小高潮,近期股價可待價而沽。
尤其鎧勝單季營收高點在2015年Q4就出現了,之後逐年下滑,在2018年之後,單季的營益率一半以上的季度都是負數,代表本業是虧損居多,自由現金流也常是負數,代表賺的錢付股息跟投資就不夠用了,因此擴大營運,達到規模經濟以降低成本,是鎧勝的改善之道,若未來同時作為和碩及立訊的機殼廠,就可以提升生產規模,對母公司和碩、新代工廠立訊、規模經濟不足的鎧勝及大客戶蘋果,算是4贏的局面 (不過對和碩其實是短多長空)。
四、從投資角度,如何押注紅色供應鏈?
代工大廠緯創日前剛公告,將出售旗下昆山、江蘇子公司給大陸立訊集團,交易對價金額暫定為人民幣 33 億元 (約新台幣 138 億元);而緯創7月22日又重訊公告,透過旗下大陸四家子公司取得大陸立訊精密人民幣約 30 億元 (約新台幣 126 億元) 有價證券,持股比達 0.81%,緯創表示,目的是財務投資及加深雙方策略合作夥伴關係。
無獨有偶,台系第二大代工大廠和碩7月22日也公告,旗下上海昌碩在2020年陸續加碼對大陸立訊精密持股,累計昌碩共持有立訊約 3984 萬股,持股比例增至 0.57%,和碩表示,僅是財務性投資。不過,近期市場頻傳立訊計畫收購台灣機殼廠,包含鎧勝 – KY 與可成等都被點名,對此鎧勝日前發布重訊澄清,僅是市場謠言,不過和碩2019年底才出脫立訊持股,此時又買回,動機引起市場議論。
總之,紅色供應鏈的崛起趨勢很明確,如同在1990年代的台灣電子股業。而台系蘋果供應鏈與紅色供應鏈之間的愛恨情仇是應競爭(一寸山河一寸血)、抑或合作(一笑泯恩仇),未來將考驗台商經營者的智慧?
而投資人更應關心的是,未來十年紅色供應鏈的崛起趨勢是很明確,投資人如果想搭大陸資本市場大成長的便車,去押注紅色供應鏈崛起的資本利得是最佳捷徑。如此,除了複委託方式,尚有何其它投資管道?
基於分散投資風險考量,筆者建議可分散投資A股主題式ETF。投資人可利用此次洪災過後的重建商機、利用中美超限戰後的經濟轉型商機,逢低買入A股的新經濟、新基建主題式ETF長線持有,十年後必有豐碩報酬。例如:
(1)群益深証中小(00643 ):其最大成份股為立訊、比亞迪、海康威視、歌爾股份、洋河股份等。
(2)國泰中國A50(00636 ):其最大成份股為金融、地產等。
(3)中信中國50 (00752):其最大成份股為騰訊、阿里巴巴、中國建設銀行、中國移動、百度、中國平安保險等。
(4)FH中國5G通信(00877):最大成份股為立訊、中興電信、三安光電、兆易創新、歌爾股份、紫光股份等。
(5)元大滬深正2(00637L):主要投資標的為中國A50期貨,因為漲跌皆是兩倍,在高低點的選擇就相對需要謹慎,只適合多頭主升段選用。
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