投資心理學
2home.co 楊惟婷
長線投資人只要堅信「價值投資」的信條，通常就可以悠哉於股海中。
而短線投資人必須要掌握「群眾心理」的脈動，才可以在股海中得到善哉。
大凡心理素質好的投資人才可能長期持有股票，心理素質不夠穩定的投資人，會隨著外界各種消息，左右投資信心而追高殺低。所以，能長期在股市中獲利，應該都是身經百戰且心理素質特高的贏家吧！
一、一場自由心證的金錢遊戲
一位堅信「價值投資」的投資人，長年以來，每當他要買進一支股票之前，就先替這家公司估算營利率，預估出該公司每年平均可以獲利多少，藉以估算出只要持有若干年，就可以回本。例如：某家企業一年賺8元，若每年拿出5元來配息，只要20年就回本。藉由此估算過程，他可建立信心、長期安心持股。
但是，對於未來營收連企業本身都很難估出未來幾年的營收，此投資人又如何能準確估算得出？尤其，近年中美貿易戰、新冠肺炎疫情等這些黑天鵝事件，都超出大家的預期；更何況這些因素也都不是企業以及投資人能掌控的。
另一位投資人，在此次新冠疫情造成股市下跌之際，陸續買進台積電股票達17張之多，買進均價為270元。當初買進時經過精算，理由是台幣定存利率低到1%以下，對照台積電每年配息四次，若每次配息2.5元，一年配息10元，除以買進價270元，殖利率也有3%多，比定存好。
然而買進之後，隨著台積電股價持續走揚，當股價來到325元時（以270元的買進價換算，漲幅已達20%），讓他陷入另外一種思考，是不是應不應該先跑一趟？
此時，投資不再只是基本面、技術面或算數問題，而是已經進人性的心理層面。
誠如此波新冠肺炎疫情重創全球經濟和股市時，連現年89歲的股神巴菲特這老司機也暈車——瘋狂地停損航空股、銀行股。那「價值投資」呢？
在金錢遊戲瘋狂的年代，人們總是會不斷重演下列這類事情：
a.和尚尼姑去號子開戶作單（現在改為佛堂進行網路下單）
b.大學生、高中生上課不斷滑手機看盤（之前是玩手遊）
c.越來越多朋友想當「全職交易者」或「全職操盤」
d.早餐店、便當店、下午茶，聽到討論股市話題的頻率大幅升高
總之，每當巴菲特被公開嘲笑達一定次數，股市就會發生大事的….
例如近期在 Nasdaq 掛牌的中國房產公司房多多，股價在兩天內飆漲 12 倍、熔斷 19 次，然後再暴跌 41.6%，短短幾天內，市值由 40 億美元又跌回至 10 億美元以下。像這樣暴漲暴跌的股票，正如同 2000 年網路泡沫崩盤時，冒出許多名不見經傳的小型飆股，在一個月內動輒飆漲個兩三倍。
在美國聯準會的刺激措施和解除封鎖後的經濟反彈，鼓舞了許多散戶投資者進場，僅管競逐當日沖銷的出現頻率更高，且很多散戶新手未必具有專業投資知識，但操作績效卻出奇地好，高盛集團的數據顯示，這些散戶的操作績效正輕鬆擊敗對沖基金和避險基金。所以，當投機狂熱大起，短進短出的散戶(被視為股市「笨錢(dumb money)」)竟打敗聰明錢時，股市泡沫還是留給短進短出的散戶吧！
二、小狗與主人 v.s 短期與長期
一支股票長期有其預估的理性「投資價值」，但短期內投資人容易受市場買賣情緒影響，而產生「從眾」的價格波動。
科斯托蘭尼曾做個比喻，經濟是主人，股市則是小狗。股市總會因為波動大、漲多等各種因素，而出現短期回檔（狗跑太遠、總會回來主人身邊）。但是拉長來看，只要長線經濟復甦延續，適時的回檔，反而會讓投資價值浮現，也讓長期的趨勢走得更為健康。
熟悉狗的朋友就知道，狗是會來回奔跑的，但是最終狗還是會跑回主人身旁。
此好比，長遠看來股市會跟著經濟方向走，但是過程中，股市卻可能呈現跟經濟實況完全相反的方向。如同近期QE錢潮弄人，在實體經濟陷入衰退之時，不斷挑逗美股飆高，股市投資人也為之瘋狂追高。
「害怕錯失良機 (fear of missing out)」的心理，正在折磨著投資人……
誠如經濟學家凱因斯曾說的一句名言：「長期來看，大家都死了。（In the long run, we are all dead）」。很多人是等不及長期到來的！所以，大多數股市投資人，都是偏好短線進出的，只有等到套牢了才是長期投資。
但是，短期股票價格的起伏是取決於「人心」和「資金」，而「資金」又被「人心」所操控的，所以「人心」是決定短期股票價格最重要的因素。如想在股市中獲勝，你必須透澈了解「群眾心理」，並且知道目前「籌碼」落在什麼人手裡？
大凡心理素質好的投資人才可能長期持有股票，心理素質不夠穩定的投資人，會隨著外界各種訊息，左右投資信心而追高殺低。所以，能長期在股市中獲利，應該都是身經百戰且心理素質特高的贏家吧！
三、生技股的做夢行情？
今年以來，台股最飆的族群，我想生技股應該是當仁不讓。而講到生技族群，其實產業上的區分是非常細的，做口罩、額溫槍、快篩劑、疫苗甚至新藥研發的……，但「產業分析」是「價值投資」的事。
生技族群短線往往是以「題材面」掛帥的。新冠肺炎疫情爆發後，防疫股成為投資人追捧的焦點，甚至有投信分析師指出，未來十年每人每天都要戴口罩，未來口罩股漲到千元也不為過！因此，「防疫概念股」由「口罩、耳溫槍」開出第一槍，因為市場上的需求迅速攀升，因此如恆大、南六、熱映等口罩、耳溫槍製造商，帶動第一波的生技攻勢。
接下來，隨著疫情進入中期，封城封路封經濟，只是治標不治本，最終仍是需要解藥的，因此「特效藥概念股」如中化生、國光生、台耀等的多頭攻勢接棒！
最後，生技股來到第三階段，市場開始關愛不具疫情的「新藥研發」做夢空間。例如今年最剽悍的股票「合一」了！合一光是糖尿病用藥的解盲成功，準備拿取藥證的這一個話題，就足以讓它的股價飆漲超過11倍，順勢帶動其他股票如基亞、智擎等……。
但是，畢竟水能載舟、亦能覆舟。散戶投資人搶進生技股，這很可能又是另一次殺戮的開始，能飆80%的股票，相對的也容易下跌80%。
一般市場散戶沒有耐心守株待兔，他們看到股票漲停板就會興奮衝進來，最好是手上的股票天天都漲停板，其實股票拉漲停通常是主力出貨的炒作手法，例如興櫃每股淨值一度掉到1.8元的普生，居然從5.71元大漲到156.5元，金萬林從13.5元漲到200元，熔斷機制本來是要冷卻市場，沒想到市場炒家借力使力變成炒股手段。
股性活潑，本來就是生技股的特性，如果說你原本的操作方式，是習慣在-5%、-10%這種地方執行停損的，基本上，是不適合操作這個「做夢」族群的喔！
事實上，此時想要再進場買生技股，必須想清楚究竟會是風險還是機會？
四、跟聯準會作對是愚蠢的？
當死空頭翻多，到底是勇於認錯，還是心理素質崩潰，而未來會發生啥事？
美股自3月下旬低點強勁反彈，在這波上漲過程中，曾警告投資人熊市還沒結束的研究機構Bianco Research總裁James Bianco如今決定轉向多頭，並改口美股年底前不排除再創新高。
回頭看3月初疫情在全球疫情延燒時，Bianco幾乎將手中的部位降低、重押現金，即使美股從低點反彈，他依舊持續看空，5月時還警告「股市僅是大熊反彈」，直到近期聯準會祭出一連串救市措施，他才「投降」由熊轉牛。他還透露已在6月初投資股票。
James Bianco表示，聯準會主席鮑爾已表態，將有幾乎無限的現金來救市並開始購買個別公司債，這是當前股市主要的驅動力，並有效地營了一個市場環境，讓散戶和當沖客都認為即使經濟衰退或爆發二次疫情，都不會遭受損失，此將吸引大量資金進場。
不過Bianco坦承，經濟的根本問題仍然存在，目前市場估值過高，但只要資金持續進場就會被高估，因此「跟聯準會作對是愚蠢的」。
這是一場螞蟻搬象的比拼賽局，大象一定穩贏的嗎？
五、北京與華盛頓的心理素質比拼？
美國總統川普幻想美國再次偉大，上任以來對大陸採強硬態度，從貿易戰到疫情究責。外界霧裡看花，大致認為大陸應不希望川普贏得今年11月總統大選，但事實是否如此？
試想，一個會讓美國與盟友關係搞砸的川普，是否反而讓大陸容易從中得利？
其實，美國總統大選對中美關係已不會有根本上的轉變，因為無論川普或拜登入主白宮，強烈壓制大陸崛起應已成國策。
但川普只有「反中情緒」，盜用雷根的殼，卻缺乏「可行策略」，例如川普反中，但是又叫歐盟、英國、日本、韓國交保護費，沒把盟友當盟友，所以很多國家也不太配合美國抗衡大陸。反觀若拜登當選，美國比較能與盟國進行合縱連橫對付大陸，從這角度看，對大陸而言反而更危險？
而根據 RealClear Politics 民調顯示，2019年底在美國經濟、股市高峰期間，川普與拜登民調一度縮小到 4% 以內，同時連過去幾乎由民主黨全拿的非裔選票，都有高達三成因為經濟強勁因素轉向支持川普。
然而在肺炎疫情爆發之後，弱勢非裔黑人首當其衝，人口數僅佔美國 13%，但肺炎確診數占比達美國總數的 22%，顯示疫情對於弱勢、低收入族群的衝擊更大，配合明尼蘇達州的警察殺死佛洛伊德事件，導致川普選情急轉直下，多數美國民眾不再相信川普能夠妥善的應對肺炎疫情，以及民主黨偏左派的思想也崛起。
川普在選情告急後，除了繼續控制疫情外，選舉策略將不得不拉回主打經濟牌。
川普骨子裡是商人本質，只講利益、不講道德的，自由、民主、人權只是美國利益的包裝紙。何況國際政治的基本現實是你不必喜歡他，但只要符合利益你就必須要跟他來往，不要把個人好惡跟公事混在一起。
中美關係是回不去了，但若川普為了勝選，在美國11月3日總統大選前，突然與北京重塑友好的雙邊關係，您也不必被驚嚇到。這意味著雙方各取所需，交易條件仍然是謎。
反正，中美這場大戲還會演好幾年，不會這麼快攤牌。只有等海水退了，誰沒有穿褲子，大家才看得一清二楚？
六、是否遇到壞消息要趕快賣股票？
「第二波病毒來了，美國、北京、巴西確診人數大增」、「北韓下令炸毀兩韓聯絡辦公室，朝鮮半島戰雲密布」、………。恐慌，在蔓延中！
「美國那斯達克指數站上萬點，創下歷史新高」、「生技醫療業績噴發，疫苗口罩股飆漲逾倍」、………。貪婪，在持續中！
當您每天看著新聞，感覺金融市場危機四伏；但股市卻群魔亂舞，也感覺金融市機會處處。目前行情，到底是多、是空，操作難度真高，該怎麼辦？
首先，請先舒緩一下情緒，冷靜思考，才能做出正確的決策。
事實上，今年的確連擅長價值投資的股神巴菲特都操作失靈，引起法人股東抱怨連連，甚至於傳出「巴菲特老了」的說法。
世界級數學家吉姆.西蒙斯，號稱「量化交易之父」，他創辦的文藝復興科技是世界頂尖的對沖基金之一，曾在2000年網路泡沫和2008年金融危機舉世哀號之際大賺，日前也傳出旗下某檔基金今年以來績效是兩成的負報酬。
其次，問問自己，那些驚悚的消息究竟是多數人已知，還是未知？
如果是前者，意味著全球的機構法人都研究過這些議題，做出投資決策並執行，也就是說，這驚悚的利空消息，已經反應在近期的盤面上。亦即，這反映著大戶們評估後，認為短期內負面影響已有限，所以，再全面崩盤的機率不高。
換言之，市場有一定的效率，不可能對已知的重大事件沒有反應，與其自己猜測，不如看看正在交易中的市場，不必自己嚇自己。
所以，面對這樣的牛熊難分時期，只要做好風險管理策略，即可降低焦慮感：
1、控制投資組合持股成數(如3成)，關鍵在於遇到危機，重挫時要力求小傷，保留大多數本金，未來回本速度才會快。
2、獲利加碼，失利減碼：
進場後，投資組合表現不錯，也就是持股開始獲利，再將持股成數提高到5或7成；如果表現平平或不佳，則視狀況繼續持有(如3成)或減碼，也就是說，當開始獲利，才擴大投資。
一般投資者容易碰見的問題是，當操作不順時，沒意注意到是盤勢已經反轉，而還想投入更多資金翻本；但當本金越虧越多，壓力會更大，反而翻本會更難！
所以，投資不要先想賺大錢，先從風險控制開始學習，才能奠定可長可久的基礎。
七、端午變盤？
第二季全球股市的強彈，已經接近滿足點了，是否可能在端午出現轉折？
首先我們看一下美國各大指數，道瓊指數第一季大跌 23.2％、第二季上漲 20％，科技類股的那斯達克，第一季大跌 14.2％、第二季強彈 28.5％，並且站上了萬點，寫下了歷史新高。蘋果、微軟、臉書、亞馬遜四大科技股都刷新了天價。
投資人在第一季新冠疫情的時候，當然損失慘重，但在FED呵護下，「寧願錯買、也不願錯過行情」的景象，正顯示投資人當下的投資心理，這讓人回想擦鞋童理論的故事。現在投資人每個人都成了防疫專家、疫苗權威，並忽視了基本面衰退，成千上萬股民湧入跌深股，這將對未來埋下一場風暴。
其實，投資人應該更理性地避開「熊市的陷阱」，金錢遊戲不能只看短線抄底獲利這一面，而忽略了另一面長線修正風險，因獲利跟風險是一體兩面。
試想，聯準會主席鮑威爾為什麼警告，美國的經濟復甦時間跟強度，存在重大的不確定風險？更須透視聯準會進一步的深層憂慮，它出手購買公司債顯然是看到了美國企業在民眾消費支出不明之下，將有倒閉的風險，而超前佈局？
而當達美航空、嘉年華郵輪都加入了大發債撈錢的行列，散戶依然抄底大買航空、郵輪的股票，把利空當利多，吾人只能嘆：「長期來看，大家都死了。」
另外，川普選情告急，選前應會丟出一個一兆美元的基礎建設刺激方案，因為9 月30日是現有美國基礎設施融資法案更新日，必須利用這一次機會，刺激美國的產業跟就業機會。但是，此傳統的「鐵公基基礎建設刺激方案」雖增加就業，但經濟效益很低，反觀大陸的「新基建刺激方案」焦點在物聯網、AI、5G寬頻的基礎建設，對未來的經濟效益比較大。假以時日，G2的國力，必大相逕庭。
總之，端午連假前，適逢國際二次疫情及朝鮮半島、中印邊境緊張情勢持續升溫，投資人心理通常趨向避險，容易出現節前賣壓；但節後若相安無事，則會出現一波回補潮。
八、不要把所有雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡
通常，一般投資人面對理財的最大痛點，除了「沒錢可以投資」外，就算有錢，也常陷入「不知道要買哪一檔股票」跟「不知道何時可以進場」的窘境。
相較於持有單一股票，剛入門理財的投資人，在決定投資目標後，對趨勢判讀、選股、買賣點尚沒有經驗，一開始可透過買進主動型基金或ETF來達到分散市場風險效果。
由以上七個話題的詮釋，可看出投資不再只是基本面、技術面問題，而是已經進入人性探索的複雜心理層面問題。由於多數民眾都不是專家，再加上充滿不確定的環境下，或許把投資交給專業的人來執行，是比較好的方式。一般人只要透過投資適合自己的主題ETF投資組合，就能達到分散投資風險的問題。
另外，誠如投資大師華倫．巴菲特所說：「不要把所有雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡」，才是長治久安之道。事實上，任何投資組合配置，最終還是要取決於個人的風險承受度以及分散風險的成本。這暗示了投資人未來在長線佈局時，應選擇適性、適量的主題ETF投資組合配置，才可以達到長線保護短線效果。
最後，透過定期定額投資適合自己的主題ETF投資組合，就能分散進場風險，也能將投資成本做有效的平均，克服追高殺低的問題。 尤其是對年輕人來說，定期定額即是採取用時間換取空間的策略，就算每月投入金額不多，但因為投資的時間長，經過不斷累積，通常能有不錯的投資表現。
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