大盤止跌訊號
2home.co 楊惟婷
台股4月底自高點17709點反轉下殺，5/12日又受到疫情嚴峻衝擊信心，出現雪崩式人踩人，盤中一度崩跌到低點15165.27點，大家都關切止跌訊號為何？
一、當沖客不止，跌勢不止！
在偉大政府鼓勵下，當沖證交稅減半，稅率由千分之3減半為千分之1.5計算，當沖交易已成台股顯學。「日日沖」除可培養當沖客愛國情操，而政府做莊荷包滿滿，各取所需。例如，4月證交稅實徵淨額244億元，創下歷史新高。
在QE資金行情加持下，帶動大盤指數在17000 點歷史新點處沖沖樂，市場交投熱絡，根據證交所統計，4月當沖成交值比重攀升至34.2%，每天平均當沖戶數約158396戶，尤其自5月4日起，連續4個交易日當沖交易占比突破4成。
但當日沖銷的操作比重提高後，卻會造成股市漲時助漲、跌時助跌，尤其帶動ETF程式交易的追漲殺跌的恐佈現象。只有當沖客槁木死灰，台股籌碼才落底！
二、科斯托蘭尼的「小狗與主人」
通常一支股票長期有其理性「投資價值」，但短期內投資人容易受市場買賣情緒影響，而產生「從眾」的價格波動。
科斯托蘭尼曾做個比喻，經濟是主人，股市則是小狗。股市總會因為波動大、漲多等各種因素，而出現短期回檔（狗跑太遠、總會回來主人身邊）。但是拉長來看，只要長線經濟復甦延續，適時的回檔，反而會讓投資價值浮現，也讓長期的趨勢走得更為健康。
熟悉狗的朋友就知道，狗是會來回奔跑的，但是最終狗還是會跑回主人身旁。
此好比，長遠看來股市會跟著經濟方向走，但是過程中，股市卻可能呈現跟經濟實況完全相反的方向。如同近期QE錢潮弄人，在股市投資人「害怕錯失良機 (fear of missing out)」的心理作祟下，今年來正在折磨著投資人……
誠如經濟學家凱因斯曾說的一句名言：「長期來看，大家都死了。（In the long run, we are all dead）」。很多人是等不及長期到來的！所以，大多數股市投資人，都是偏好短線進出的，只有等到套牢了才是長期投資。
但是，短期股票價格的起伏是取決於「人心」和「資金」，而「資金」又被「人心」所操控的，所以「人心浮動」是決定短期股票價格波動最重要的因素。
如想在股市中獲勝，你必須透澈了解「群眾心理」，並且知道目前「籌碼」落在什麼人手裡？亦即，只有等到「價值投資」抬頭，讓「籌碼」被長線買盤鎖住，才是長期投資買點浮現。
三、大盤止跌指標
金融市場永遠是對的，我們都不是神。
我們只是市場跟隨者，要對盤勢、個股公正客觀看待，不預設立場。
當盤勢、個股走勢跟你的預想不同，就要修正自己看法，並且在跌破(或漲過)某些關鍵價格，就該認錯出場(或進場)，並調整部位、觀點，而不是糾結在證明自己才是對的。所以說：投資重在修正，不在預測。
以下，提供八種大盤止跌指標供看倌參考：
1、當台灣疫情擴散程度獲得有效控制之前，請謹慎而行！
解鈴還須繫鈴人，此波下殺導因疫情爆發，而近期能否控制疫情擴散程度，才是大盤止跌的最重要關鍵，所以每日確診數變化是大盤漲跌指標。未來的單日確診數只要不再續創新高，對於市場來說就算是個好消息了！不是嗎？
2、「護國神山」台積電、聯發科及鴻海的止穩，是政府是否護盤指標
此外，「護國神山」台積電、聯發科及鴻海佔大盤權值大，是官股護盤核心。
尤其，台積電自歷史高點 679 元以來，5/12日摔破半年線跌到518元；另業績表現優異的聯發科更是在創下歷史新高價1185元後，5/12日最低殺到821元，短短8個交易日重挫超過3成。但隨後神秘買盤進場承接這兩大權值股，終場皆拉出一根長下影線，出現V型反彈走勢。未來，若這三大權值王只要不破底，才是大盤指數落底指標。
3、台指VIX指數是否能續創新高？
恐慌指數頂點，往往是股市的反轉點，為散戶反指標，往往就是市場的鐵則。
回顧2020年疫情爆發時，3月18日恐慌指數創下歷史新高，接著3月23日來到最高點，但指數卻早在3月19日止跌。
5/12日受到疫情嚴峻衝擊信心，大盤一度崩跌到低點15165.27點，台指VIX指數盤中升破43.91，在此次新增180例與升級三級警戒後，接下來幾天的恐慌程度勢必會達到頂點，所以未來幾天須注意台指VIX指數是否能續創新高？若不再續創新高，代表市場恐慌程度緩解，就是止跌訊號。
4、等融資維持率等殺到140%再說！
至5/12日此波段跌點達2543.96點，跌幅達14.3%；但同期間，因為散戶勇敢進場槓桿式加碼，融資餘額衝高到2740.63億元創9年高水位以來。
當融資餘額創新高，指數進入大跌時，融資戶會面臨融資追繳，就會引發多殺多一波接一波的連環爆。
回憶台股前一次殺融資，是在十年前的2011年1月，當時台股高點9220點，融資餘額達3263億元，大盤跌至最低6609點，融資減至1757億元，減了1506億元，減幅僅46%才見止跌。
而此波下殺直到4/13為止，才降到2366億元，波段只減肥374億元，減幅僅13%，顯示籌碼尚凌亂。若指數再不止跌，就會引發多殺多的連環減肥。
尤其這次台股急跌，融資維持率已跌至150%附近，若再殺出一波，短線將會出現一波波多殺多連環炸，所以近日宜避開高融資使用率個股，以免接到向下的刀子。未來融資維持率若跌破140%，融資追繳將萬箭齊發後，才是短線最佳反彈的契機。
5、靜待線型築出底部再說！
台股5/12日大跌逾1400點，隨後神秘買盤進場承接台積電、聯發科及鴻海等權值股，終場皆拉出一根700多點長下影線，守住半年線15600點。但月線17000點、季線16500點已成蓋頭反壓，上檔龐大套牢賣壓，今年恐難穿越，長線多頭已埋下隱憂。但由於短線跌速過快，容易有反彈逃命線，投資人可把握此一線生機，調整投資組合。
由跌幅判斷，此波由17709點跌至15165點共下跌2544點，反彈1/2處逃命線約在季線16500點反壓處，反彈0.618處逃命線約在16740點反壓處，反之，若半年線15600點再次跌破，應小心進行第二波修正，將引爆恐慌性賣壓，中線修正恐將等跌到年線14000點才有可能止穩，不能不防。
6、靜待成交量出現3500億元以下窒息量再說！
近日大盤屢屢爆量大跌，顯示短線籌碼凌亂，須以跌止跌、靜待浮額沉澱。未來，若成交量能出現3500億元以下窒息量，暗示浮額沉澱，大盤才有可能止穩。
7、「國安基金」是否進場護盤，也是止穩的重要指標
現在的政府非常看重股市這項政績，從去年3月的國安基金進場；去年7月12000點之上國安基金打死不退；2月金管會主委為16000點的基本面掛保證；4月央行總裁勸國人提高投資率；到5月崩跌過後，國安基金、金管會、行政院、甚至總統本人都出面喊話，這在意的程度不言可喻了吧！台股5/12日大跌逾1400點，財政部長蘇建榮表示，受到國內疫情升溫的影響造成恐慌性賣壓，已經密切注意，必要時會召開臨時會決議(是否護盤)。
但須留意，一開始「國安基金」只是口水護盤，通常「國安基金」會等跌幅到年線、十年線的長線跌幅滿足點，才有可能會進場拉抬。
8、台幣須重回升勢，才能吸引外資買盤回歸
自2020年以來，在川普貿易戰轉單效應及大陸疫情催化台商鮭魚返鄉設廠下，台幣展開驚人升勢。
此外，由於2020年來漲勢瘋狂，理性的外資卻大量賣超、套現超過9000億元，致台股籌碼被破壞了。外資套現的9000億元，透過乘數效果收縮，市場已嚴重失血，在散戶「害怕錯過」心態下，以融資槓桿、期權、當沖挹注失血，雖力撐170000點上震盪，卻無力扭轉外資大量套現後挫力，終究淪為被割韭菜。所以，未來台幣必須重回升勢，暗示外資買盤回歸，台股指數長線仍有落底機會。
四、跋尾—別人貪婪我恐懼、別人恐懼我貪婪！
股市從不乏故事，但故事總在悲觀中落底、在半信半疑中成長、在樂觀中結束。
此波，當越來越多人喊台股上看兩萬到三萬點時，投資人在極度樂觀中本應甩開貪婪、從眾心態，才能持盈保泰。
台股第一波多殺多崩跌尚不是恐懼的總和，下一波可能才是恐懼的總和！
但利用這次下殺也給市場冷靜的機會，並不是壞事，接下來要讓基本面說話，回歸「價值投資」，未來自然會給大家帶來另一次機會。
隨著疫苗接種普及與防疫管制逐步放寬，全球經濟將在2021年下半年強勁復甦，且美國聯準會宣示在2023年前都將維持於零利率的水平，允許通膨暫以平均通膨率2%為目標，顯示現階段寬鬆環境前所未見。未來幾個月美股伴隨拜登「基建計畫」，美股仍有「融漲」（melt-up）機會，但隨著年底Fed開始緊縮貨幣政策來調控通膨成長，美股也可能應聲重挫。
尤其，台股未來仍須面對的變數包括本土疫情能否控制、中美衝突能否緩解、美國FED何時QE縮減、升息等？
吾人認為，台股此次創高17709點後，急跌下殺至15165點，短線籌碼凌亂，此時投資人必須療傷止痛，不應對搶反彈報酬率有過高的期待。尤其長線多頭已埋下隱憂(量先做頭)後，投資人應把握反彈契機，調整投資組合，並嚴控持股比例，且建立風險對沖的操作策略。
大凡心理素質好的投資人，比較不會隨著外界各種訊息，左右投資信心而追高殺低。他總能在別人貪婪時抽身、在別人恐懼中人棄我取。所以，想要長期在股市中獲利，不妨利用身經百戰，來提昇自己的心理素質吧！
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