貨幣流通速度甦醒後的通膨夢魘
2home.co 楊惟婷
當市場錢滿為患之時，觸目所見景象似乎全面美好—-
如同地平線上升起陽光，錢潮金光閃閃，具有消化所有暗黑利空的巨大能力，大地表面一片光明……。
一、從貨幣寬鬆(QE)原理說起
一個小鎮，每個人都債臺高築，靠信用度日。
有一天，從外地來了一位有錢的旅客，他進了一家旅館，拿出一張1000元鈔票放在櫃檯，說想先看看房間，挑一間合適的過夜。
就在此人上樓看房間的時候，店主拿了這張1000元鈔，跑到隔壁屠戶那裡支付了他欠的肉錢。
屠夫有了1000元，橫過馬路付清了向豬農的購豬本錢。
豬農拿了1000元，出去付了他欠的飼料款。
而那個賣飼料的老兄，拿到1000元趕忙去付清他召妓的錢(經濟不景氣，當地的服務業也不得不提供信用服務)。
有了1000元，這名妓女沖到旅館付了她所欠的房錢。
旅館店主忙把這1000元放到櫃檯上，以免旅客下樓時起疑。
此時那人正下樓來，拿起1000元，聲稱沒一間滿意的，他把錢收進口袋，走了……
這一天，沒有人生產了什麼東西，也沒有人得到什麼東西，可全鎮的債務都清了，大家都過了很開心的一天……
這幾年，各國央銀(如同外地來的一位有錢的旅客)正是在玩這套把戲，讓苟延殘喘的經濟甦醒起來……。
二、何謂「貨幣流通速度」？
「貨幣流通速度」是指單位貨幣在一定時期內的周轉(或實現交換)次數。
如同上述小鎮，因外地來的一位有錢的旅客，借用他的貨幣流通數回合，讓經濟甦醒起來了……。
「貨幣」作為實現商品交換的媒介手段，在商品流通中，正不斷地為實現商品交換提供服務，並活絡實體經濟。
例如，甲用1000元向乙買花生，乙用這1000元向丙買布，丙又用這1000元向丁買衣服，這1000元貨幣在一定期間內實現了3000元的商品價值，其流通速度是3次。
「貨幣」流通如同實體經濟的「血液」，活絡實體經濟的滯塞困境……。
一次QE，活血一次，但下一頓飯呢？
尤其，這次疫情是外生變數的封城，積累的消費需求一次爆發，供給情何以堪？
三、貨幣流通速度與通貨膨脹的隱憂
由於短期商品供給是有限的，所以因為貨幣增發、或貨幣流通增速，將有引爆通貨膨脹的隱憂……
- 現金交易方程式
關於計算貨幣流通速度，有個著名公式，即現金交易方程式。
現金交易方程式由美國經濟學家 I. 費雪提出，其公式為：
MV＝PT
式中M表示流通中貨幣數量
V表示貨幣流通次數
P表示一般商品價格
T表示最終產品和中間產品交易量的總和
- 貨幣流通速度與通貨膨脹關聯性
貨幣的價值(幣值)乃指貨幣購買力，即一單位貨幣所能購買的財貨數量。因此，當貨幣供給大於貨幣需求時，會導至貨幣幣值貶值，會導至物價上漲。即
幣值=1/物價。
根據現金交易方程式： MV＝PT
假設
V：貨幣(如美元)流動速度穩定，
T：商品(如石油、黃金)總數固定，
在一般的情況下，
M：貨幣會因過多而貶值，
P：物價會因過多的貨幣追逐商品而上漲。
近年來，各國央行大行數量寬鬆、印鈔救市，致準備貨幣M暴增，有激化通膨之虞。
惟每次事件(不論金融風暴或疫情) 不是重創商業銀行創造存款貨幣能力，就是凍結消費能力，導致貨幣流通速度停滯，因而抵消數量寬鬆的成效，而未激化通膨。
加上每次恐慌階段「現金為王」心理作祟，超額儲蓄就暴增，也導致貨幣流通速度減速，而未激化通膨。
但此次疫情不同之處，由於封城致消費者被極度抑制，使貨幣流動速度V停滯不動，因而明天過後，若消費信心回升，須小心報復性消費，瞬間的貨幣流通速度加速恐造成惡性通膨的狂升，有猝死危機。
四、貨幣流通速度甦醒後的美麗
- 貨幣流通速度創下1959年以來最低紀錄
新冠肺炎疫情爆發以來，多國政府實行封鎖措施以應對疫情，民眾被迫待在家中，無法進行旅遊等大額消費。
例如3月25日公布的數據顯示，美國2020年第2季貨幣流通速度(Velocity of M2 Money Stock)報1.103，是自1959年開始統計以來最低紀錄。
- 全球消費者累積54兆美元的儲蓄額蓄勢待花
據信評機構穆迪 (Moody’s) 的數據顯示，全球消費者在疫情期間已經累積了約 54兆美元的儲蓄，相對地，在經濟前景轉好的情況下，有望在後疫情時代帶來強勁報復性消費支出。
穆迪也表示，疫情期間大量需求遭到壓抑，再加上超額儲蓄，有望帶動全球消費支出激增。依穆迪估計，僅美國地區，家庭就積累了超過2兆美元的超額儲蓄。該機構指出，若消費者花將三分之一的超額儲蓄拿來花用，將有望帶動今明兩年的全球GDP成長約2個百分點。
高盛先前也曾表示，如今美國家庭滿手現金，估計美國家庭已經積累了超過 1.5兆美元的超額儲蓄，到2021年年中，此一數字應該會上升到約2.4兆美元。
- 穩定的「投資、就業需求」才是經濟成長的長期支撐
超額儲蓄、報復性的「消費需求」近期似乎十分強勁，對經濟增長來說，只是短期的一帖春藥。
美國目前通脹陰霾已現，但是就業還沒恢復，比起疫情前水準就業機會仍少著約760萬份。因為高額疏困金補助造成企業加薪了還是缺工，所以美國目前是處在就業恢復不足和勞工供應短缺並存，失業率下降則與勞工參與率不足的弔詭現象，這是根源於一批人情願呆在家裡拿政府補助有關。
而工資乃是萬般通膨之母，依美國5月非農就業報告顯示企業4月增聘人手增幅低於市場所預料，顯示缺工的調薪將觸發通膨，成為美國經濟復甦最大絆腳石。
但長期經濟增長關鍵仍在由政府貨幣、財政刺激政策催生出來的經濟活動能否製造出新的就業機會，尤其是破壞性創新帶來的「投資、就業需求」，才能令勞工市場有內生的修復動能、生生不息，因為發疏困金只會坐吃山空。
五、貨幣流通速度甦醒後的哀愁
- 全球即將步入通膨升勢紅地毯
美國核心PCE在4月份已超過Fed的2% 政策目標。但Fed 對此仍定調：一時性的通膨超過政策目標，料不會觸發政策變化。
由於投資人預期美國近期加息無望，故十年期和三年期國債發行順利，30年國債更被“火爆”搶購，給債市打了一針強心劑。而美股也繼續引領全球風險資產市場情緒高漲，再創新高，全球股市一面向好。
- IMF：美國正出現持續性通膨的風險
國際貨幣基金 (IMF) 7/7 日表示，美國正從疫情中加速復甦，進一步財政刺激政策可能加劇通膨壓力，並警告正出現物價持續上漲的風險，且比預期還要持久。可能需要提前升息，但這可能導致全球金融情勢急劇收緊。
IMF 也表示，其他國家面臨大宗商品和食品價格上漲，目前正處於 2014 年以來的最高水準。若價格持續上漲可能使美國提前收緊貨幣政策，這不僅會導致全球金融情勢急劇收緊，更可能導致新興、開發中經濟體的資本大量流出，恐對新興、開發中國家造成特別嚴重的打擊。
然而，鑑於變種病毒出現和疫苗接種進度的疑慮，以及通膨回升將比預期更持久的可能性，現階段全球經濟前景仍存在不確定性。
- 魯比尼：慢動作的「火車失事」將引發美股崩跌
近期美國面臨著通膨威脅，但聯準會基本上定調為「暫時性」通膨。
「末日博士」魯比尼認為，當前美國的資本似乎異常，並具備了1970年代停滯性通膨及2008年債務大增的雙重條件，最終這將造成災難性事故。
魯比尼認為，所謂「明斯基時刻 (Minsky Moment) 」的威脅將降臨。
這一威脅在過去幾年來多次被提出，它代表著市場樂觀情緒由盛而衰的轉折，這將讓高槓桿的投資者開始拋售資產，並因賣壓過大造成價格崩盤。
魯比尼指出，寬鬆的貨幣政策及財政政策，助長當前到處都是資產和信貸泡沫，當繁榮遭遇「明斯基時刻」，接下來開始緊縮的貨幣政策將引發蕭條和崩盤。
魯比尼還提出另一個風險，被稱做「沃爾克 (Paul Volcker) 時刻」。
它指的是聯準會前主席 Paul Volcker在1980-82年時，為了應對通膨而加速升息，造成美國出現嚴重的雙底衰退與債務危機。
魯比尼認為，當前的經濟環境讓央行陷入困境，如果他們縮減刺激措施，就有可能引發一波違約，損害經濟增長，但要是繼續下去，就會通膨擴大，央行無論做或不做都將受到譴責。
魯比尼指出，這場慢動作的「火車失事」似乎不可避免。
「1970年代的停滯性通膨，很快就會撞上2008年後時期的債務危機。問題不在於會不會，而在於什麼時候降臨。」
- QE尚未讓實體經濟康復，卻已催生金融泡沫的困境
目前台股單日成交值屢創新高，因有一大部份是「當沖」交易所推升，以5/12日台股單日成交值高達新台幣7727多億、創歷史新天量；其中很多買賣金額來自「當沖」交易，也就是說成交值大都是「沖沖樂」所沖出來的。
舉例來說，由於歐美逐步解除封鎖，報復性的消費力十分強勁，今年來航運業景氣大好，貨櫃三雄運價更是節節高升，致航運股漲勢凶猛，成為近期台股的盤面焦點，更吸引大批短線當沖客進場。不少散戶搶著當航海王、當沖客每天衝浪把荷包賺滿滿。有名網友甚至曬出他7/5日一天內當沖15次長榮期貨的對帳單，引起網友們的熱議。
不少股民不禁興嘆，說這年頭如果不轉行當水手不可能發大財。所以每天一早不少股民就在股市岸邊等上船沖浪。
依證交所統計，7/6日當沖比率首度衝破50%，站上5字頭，續寫新高。航運股即為當天熱門當沖標的，其中長榮（2603）當沖占比即高達70%，共計55萬張。
再根據證交所統計，7/6日當日沖銷交易總買進金額達2419.63億元，當沖比50.67%；當日沖銷交易總賣出成交金額2423.8億元，占比達50.75%。
航運股當天資金占比逾3成，其中，貨櫃三雄均為當沖熱門標的，長榮當沖占比高達70%，張數達55萬張，陽明當沖比率72.3%，當沖51.9萬張。萬海當沖比例稍低為67.2%，共計9.6萬張。
另面板股群創當沖比45.4%，共計24.3萬張。友達當沖比達44.8%，彩晶54.1%，後兩者交易張數均逾15萬張。
而鋼鐵股也受當沖客青睞，中鋼當沖比率44.2%，共18.9萬張，中鴻當沖比率66.9%。
QE尚未讓實體經濟康復，卻已催生金融泡沫的困境。
當一個社會舉全民之力玩「沖沖樂」交易，也就是說「長期投資的資本積累」將一點、一滴地被沖刷掉。那明天呢？
六、跋尾—-民不與官鬥
- 大陸為實現「碳中和」狂打鋼鐵
中國大陸在2020年9月向聯合國宣示將在2060年實現「碳中和」後，兩會已訂定2030年達到「碳達峰」及2060年「碳中和」目標，並宣布啟動碳交易市場。
中國大陸初期主要針對電力公司啟動碳交易，預計2025年將擴展到其他7個主要排放產業，且目前大陸一噸溫室氣體的平均起價為人民幣50元，但預估到2025年將升至人民幣71元，漲逾4成，這也意味大陸鋼鐵業者未來生產成本將因此墊高。
近日中國大陸又對鋼鐵業下重手，因目前鋼鐵業占中國每年二氧化碳排放量的10%至20%，是僅次於發電產業的第二大汙染源。
- 拜登為填飽「食衣住行」狂打運價
由於美國解封後商品需求飆升，讓全球陸運及航運供應鏈陷入緊繃，運輸費率也跟著攀高，美國拜登乃決定頒布行政命令，監管美國海陸運輸市場的競爭，藉此壓低企業的運輸成本，儘管行政命令的相關細節與發布時間尚未確定，但可確定的是將出手加強產業競爭。
此外，根據德魯里世界貨櫃指數（Drewry World Container Index）最新報告顯示，8條東西向主要貿易路線的費率升至8796美元，比一年前飆升333%，從上海到洛杉磯的運費也比去年上漲了229%，來到9631美元的高價，且德魯里預測接下來的運費還有可能繼續往上成長，進出口商的成本也會跟著增加。
尤其，全球三大航運聯盟控制超過80%的海運市場，並運用其優勢要求不合理的費率、甚至收取額外費用，讓美國出口商付出龐大的運輸成本，因此拜登將頒布行政命令，要求聯邦海事委員會採取行動保護美國出口商，並促進產業競爭，讓更多小企業能參與，同時避免壟斷狀況發生。
此消息一出讓運輸股受到影響，讓美國海陸運輸股應聲倒地，鐵路族群受創最深，多檔跌幅逾7%，台灣航運三雄萬海、長榮及陽明也都追隨老大哥出現不小的跌幅。
- 一切都是為了壓制通膨的風險
不管大陸狂打鋼鐵、拜登狂打運價，一切都是為了壓制通膨的風險。
但這些手段只是治標、不治本。
嚇阻的手段，只能減緩貨幣流通速度，爭取「投資、就業需求」復原時間。
但根本解，是適時關閉QE的閘門，否則通膨的猛獸將長驅直入。
這答案FED知道，但「削減恐慌」帶來的崩盤代價他們也付不起。
現在唯一能做的是，透過心戰喊話，透過迷霧彈—–
FED已開始製造縮表、升息啞謎，透過內部官員大唱雙簧，讓大盤上下震盪築底。而在縮表、升息政策實施之前，股市無可避免會出現預防性賣壓，這將抑制股市漲勢，並使股市估值自然下滑。這對股市來說，可藉此慢慢適應Fed 政策改變衝擊或消化通膨的風險，避免一次性崩盤而前功盡棄。
可想而知，FED未來應會動作不斷，透過FED官員釋出縮減QE的不同看法（有人扮白臉 and 有人扮黑臉），來麻醉市場；或許是利用7月27～28日的FOMC；或許是利用8月26日的全球央行年會；或許7/8日紐約聯邦儲備銀行宣布將從7 /12 日起逐步出售手上的公司債，這已是個起手勢。
—–大家拭目以待未來的驚嚇。
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