FTX破產引爆金融危機？
2home.co 楊惟婷
最近虛擬幣圈最大條的事，應該就是加密貨幣平台FTX聲請破產保護。
FTX 創立於2019年，全球用戶超過100萬人，是全球第二大的加密貨幣交易平台。FTX的執行長SBF、班克曼-佛里特（Sam Bankman-Fried）坦承他自己「搞砸了一切」，不過班克曼-佛里特並沒有細說，他到底搞砸了些什麼？
一、幣圈傳奇富豪 FTX創辦人SBF身價一日暴跌94%
2022年投機性風險資產最具代表的比特幣一度大跌7成，好不容易在19000美
元左右止跌反彈，尤其10/26日比特幣當日上漲逾5%、站上20854美元，這是比特幣大跌後最強力的一記反彈。春燕回來了嗎？
正當大伙正在爭辯這波比特幣上漲究竟是敗部復活、抑或迴光返照時？加密貨幣交易所 FTX 卻傳出財務危機，真是熊出沒？
有著「虛幣金童」之稱的FTX創辦人兼執行長班克曼-佛里特（Sam Bankman-Fried），外界人稱SBF，現年30歲，儘管FTX一直被幣圈詬病他們的財務不透明，不過SBF在推特（Twitter）屢屢發文，與接受大量媒體採訪所形塑的利他主義人設，讓他一直維持幣圈風雲人物的形象。真是包藏禍心？
經這次FTX聲請破產保護，不但一夕讓SBF人設敗壞、從天堂被打到18層地獄，讓本來名聲就已經與「柬埔寨」齊名的加密貨幣形象，再度受到重創。
另一個知名虛擬貨幣平台「幣安」的創辦人趙長鵬，看來也相當不爽SBF，趙長鵬在推特發文說，現在「到底在幹嘛！因為FTX，搞成好像整個加密貨幣圈都出問題了」，不滿之情溢於言表。
■虛幣金童SBF搞出80億美元大危機，還爆出挪用客戶資金
幣圈第二大交易所FTX聲請破產保護，有著「虛幣金童」之稱SBF已經遭到美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的調查，巴哈馬也凍結FTX在當地的相關資金，不僅如此，SBF還被爆出擅自從FTX轉移至少40億美元的資金至旗下避險基金機構Alameda Research，而40億美元中有部分是客戶的資金。
Alameda Research是SBF所創辦的虛擬貨幣避險基金，日前被發現因屢次交易失敗，導致資不抵債出現破產疑慮，讓高度連結的FTX受到巨大打擊，SBF這才坦承公司出現80億美元的資金缺口，這些資金中有部分是客戶資金，引起譁然。
FTX 交易所平台幣 FTT因為流動性危機一日崩跌85%，連帶讓被稱為幣圈傳奇富豪的 FTX創辦人SBF淨資產一日暴跌94%，將近160億美元財富就暴減至約10億美元，快化為烏有。
事態發展可能讓 FTX 的一票投資人感到震驚，包括軟銀願景基金、新加坡主權財富基金淡馬錫 (Tamesek)、安大略教師退休金計畫，他們2022年1月曾投資4億美元，對 FTX估值為320億美元。目前，包括 SBF在內，FTX 現有投資人的財產將隨之化為烏有。
所有問題的起源，都和SBF共同創辦的另一家交易機構 Alameda Research 有關。因Alameda 用 FTT等資產作為抵押品借貸，約占 146億美元總資產當中，約四分之一為 FTT，另有 21.6億美元被列為 FTT擔保品。
不久之前，幣圈即流傳關於 Alameda Research 資不抵債的流言……。
Alameda Research是 SBF擁有的另一家公司，但在 Alameda 的資產負債表中，FTT是最大的單一資產，Alameda 與 FTT相關資產為 58億美元，占其淨資產的 88%。
雖然SBF高調回應，稱營運一切正常，手上有足夠的現金，不擔心擠兌。
但隨著 FTT 價格開始下挫，加上趙長鵬表示，幣安決定清算帳面上任何剩餘 FTT，將危機拉高到了頂點。
反映在幣圈市場上，就是所有的加密貨幣11/8 日幾乎全面急跌。
在 FTX求助後，幣安CEO趙長鵬稱，幣安起初簽署了無約束力的意向書，有意全面收購 FTX，一度讓市場振奮，加密貨幣價格隨即回彈。
然而，市場很快發現，這一意向書並無約束力，危機並未馬上解除，這使得市場依然動盪不安。比特幣一度跌至 17000美元附近動盪。
全球最大加密貨幣交易所幣安 (Binance)創始人趙長鵬現在是幣圈最富有的人，根據彭博的指數，他的身價估計約 164 億美元，而2022年1月鼎盛時期曾達到 970億美元。
隨著幣安放棄全面收購 FTX，市場信心頓時崩潰，加密貨幣隨即摔至18層地獄的地下室……。
二、比特幣恐跌向12000美元，未來將面臨強力監管？
■FTX破產衝擊，加密貨幣跌勢加重，並迎來高強度監管
FTX 破產事件餘波盪漾，在傳出 FTX 駭客將部分資產由以太幣 (ETH) 轉成比特幣 (BTC) 之後，兩個主要加密貨幣近兩日持續下挫。而山寨幣跌幅普遍加大，做為投機的迷因幣代表，狗狗幣下跌不遑多讓。
監管人員在清理 FTX 帝國的殘骸時，發現 FTX 對幾名最大債權人的欠款達31 億美元。
此未償還資金的規模，引發了人們對更多數位資產機構將倒閉的擔憂。
例如，加密貨幣貸款機構 BlockFi Inc. 可能是下一個申請破產？
另一部分FTX流失的 6.63億美元，有人猜測，已有一部分由駭客用以太幣轉出。
從 FTX 押走的這部分資金「正在轉移」，其中一些又從以太幣轉移到比特幣，這可能是「套現」操作的一部分，這導致了各種關於數位資產及其基礎區塊鏈技術未來面臨多種挑戰。
由於幣安宣布放棄收購 FTX，以及FTX 可能面臨破產，幣圈恐慌情緒籠罩，比特幣 (BTC) 11/10 日一度跌至 15698 美元，創兩年來低位。
不過，比特幣價格可能會在 15000美元附近找到短期支撐位，且比特幣接下來可能觸及今年夏天的低點 13000美元。
如果比特幣繼續下跌，這可能是比特幣史上首次 52周移動平均線和 104周移動平均線，都跌破 156周均線，但最終幣價可能會跌至12000美元左右。
幣圈2022年已經經歷多次風波，包括穩定幣TerraUSD崩盤、避險基金三箭資本清盤以及借貸平台 Celsius Network 破產。FTX 可能面臨破產，對目前規模由3兆美元跌近1兆美元的加密貨幣行業而言，這可能又是一個「雷曼時刻」。
尤其，隨著FTX破產，比特幣成為數位黃金的說法，將難獲得支持，更多的投資者將選擇退出，加密貨幣價格再次暴跌只是時間問題。
大空頭 Jim Chanos警告，加密貨幣行業未來將迎來高強度監管。
目前恐慌局勢也引來監管機構關注，美國司法部門據稱正與 SEC合作，調查 FTX相關動盪，美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 也在調查這家加密貨幣交易所，了解 FTX 如何管理其客戶的資金，以及加密交易所 FTX 和 FTX US 的組織結構。
省理工學院加密經濟學實驗室創辧人 Christian Catalini 認為，FTX 問題確實是一個迫切的提醒，提醒人們需要提升對加密貨幣的監管透明度，和建立真正的監管框架。
三、FTX破產是否引爆金融危機？
虛擬幣圈的劇烈震盪近月並沒有停止跡象，甚至逐漸從已經宣布破產的FTX向外擴張，先是借貸業者BlockFi有意聲請破產，因BlockFi是FTX的關係企業，BlockFi官方坦承公司與風暴中心FTX、Alameda Research之間有巨大的曝險部位，因此躲不過襲擊。
隨後又傳出虛幣投資銀行Genesis Global Trading的貸款部門也暫停申請貸款及接受贖回。
由於FTX的影響，Coinbase交易所亦充滿挑戰，為保護客戶的資產，因此也暫停新貸款的發放及舊貸款的贖回，同時努力增加資金流動性。
種種狀況讓FTX破產所引發的後果，越來越像2008年的金融風暴，存在許多不當的借貸操作與風險管理，整體的衝擊尚未完全浮現。Coinbase首席財務官Alesia Haas警告，FTX破產所帶來的影響還沒有完全顯現出來，現在看起來越來越像幣圈金融危機？
■隨著FTX破產，加密貨幣危機恐進一步蔓延
隨著加密貨幣FTX交易所申請破產，整個加密貨幣市場面臨著信心危機蔓延的風險。
目前加密貨幣生態系統本身，面臨著廣泛蔓延的重大風險，整體加密產業難免因FTX 倒閉，遭遇更多的懷疑，並且會持續很長一段時間。
但FTX崩盤，與2008年金融危機時背景不同。2008年時，美國政府大量注資救助華爾街，但加密市場並沒有中央銀行，而美國政府也不會提供明確的支持來限制危機進一步蔓延，因此投資人資產可能化為烏有。
不過，隨著FTX破產，風險可能不會擴散至金融市場，這主要是因為加密貨幣目前市場規模已不足1兆美元，相較美股規模高達 43兆美元，風險可控。
■FTX破產餘震，幣安24小時內被大提款19億美元
在 FTX 創造幣圈史上最大規模破產案後，幣圈投資人心理陰影揮之不去，擔心交易所可能肆意揮霍用戶資金，全球最大加密貨幣交易所幣安（Binance）在12/12日24小時內已登記19億美元的提款，因為幣安表示已「暫時停止」提領 USDC穩定幣。
幣安創始人趙長鵬（CZ）近日一直在推特發文表達其對幣安的信心。從數據來看，在經歷 FTX風波後，即便是最大加密貨幣所幣安，投資人對其信任可能也正在流失。
但從幣安的準備金規模來看，這些流出的金額仍相對較小，惟鑑於幣圈近期風波，許多投資人選擇謹慎做法也不足為奇。
■幣安引發「大到不能倒」擔憂
雖然幣安比 FTX 還早成立，並曾安然度過 2017年12月到 2018年年底比特幣暴跌逾 80% 的「幣圈寒冬」，但近日的發展仍讓投資人如坐針氈。
在 FTX 垮台、SBF被捕之後，幣安和其執行長趙長鵬 (CZ) 在幣圈擁有主導地位，但這也引起「大到不能倒」的擔憂。CZ多次堅稱，幣安不會像 FTX一樣挪用客戶資金，而且無論客戶提款金額有多高，幣安都有能力支應。
雪上加霜的是，CZ 12月受訪時，原本是想要挽回投資人信心，但當主持人提問為何幣安不仿照 Coinbase，請傳統四大會計事務所審核時，CZ 先是語塞，接著說他們「不太看 Coinbase」，被外界批評回應不當。
加密貨幣主張「去中心化」，然而在 FTX 破產後，幣安的市場影響力已經擴大到讓人不安的地步，就連許多支持 CZ 和幣安的人也不能不在意幣安逐漸變成「大到不能倒」的擔憂。
根據 CryptoCompare 的資料，幣安的市占率已提升到 52.9%，創公司成立以來新高，若在衍生性商品交易的世界，幣安的市占率更達到 67.2%。而且，金融市場每當出現一個掌握大量資源的玩家，就容易帶來系統性風險。
而幣安發言人強調，幣安並未把使用者資金用於投資，客戶的加密貨幣帳戶是分開的，所有用戶資產都是 1:1 存放的，而且幣安擁有 10億美元緊急資金保障客戶權益，資本結構也是無債務的狀態。
■印度央行總裁：加密貨幣可能引發下一次金融危機
雖然，各國央行過去經常表示加密貨幣不會對經濟構成重大風險，因為它們代表的資產類別要小得多，但越來越多的聲音對潛在的宏觀經濟影響發出警告，特別是如果在加密貨幣不受監管的的情況下。
2022年在加密貨幣市值蒸發 1.3兆美元、FTX 加密貨幣交易所高調破產後，數位貨幣監管已成為大眾的關心的焦點。
印度儲備銀行（RBI）總裁達斯（Shaktikanta Das）12/21 日警告，若不對加密貨幣進行監管可能會引發下一次金融危機，並敦促採用新的數位貨幣（CBDC）來滿足數位銀行業務的需求。
達斯以 FTX事件為例表示，加密貨幣對宏觀經濟和金融穩定具有某些巨大的固有風險，並強調如果監管機構允許加密貨幣成長，下一次金融危機就會到來。他補充說，印度央行最擔心的是加密貨幣並沒有任何潛在價值，這是100%的投機活動。
達斯也說，全球範圍內有越來越多央行將接受 CBDC，因為這些央行避開私人的加密貨幣。印度央行拒絕承認私人加密貨幣，並多次對這類交易發出警告。
美國財政部 10月也表示，加密貨幣活動可能對美國金融體系穩定構成風險，並強調監管的必要性。
四、FTX創辦人SBF涉美史最大金融詐騙之一
加密貨幣平台FTX創辦人SBF12/13日在美國要求下於巴哈馬被捕，他面臨多項指控，包括美國證券管理委員會稱他「建造以欺騙為基礎的紙牌屋（house of cards）」。
鑑於指控的嚴重性，法律分析人士表示，SBF可能面臨終身監禁風險，這讓人想起金融家馬多夫（Bernard Madoff），他犯下美國史上最大的龐氏騙局（Ponzi scheme）後，2021年死於美國獄中。
美國檢察官在起訴書中稱，2019年SBF成立他的公司以來，還從事洗錢、違反競選財務法和電信詐欺，這是美國歷史上最大的金融詐騙之一。
■SEC對FTX前執行長SBF指控詐欺投資人18億美元
美國證券交易委員會12/13 日宣布對加密貨幣交易所 FTX 前執行長SBF提起訴訟，指控SBF透過 FTX 策劃詐欺行為，並違反證券交易法中的反詐欺規定，將對其違法行為與涉嫌的個人與實體進行調查。
SEC 指出SBF多年來策劃詐欺，自 2019年5月從股權投資人募資逾 18億美元資金，其中 11億美元來自約 90名美國投資人，並認為這是一場精心策畫的騙局，目的是欺騙股票投資人。
訴狀提到，SBF旗下 Alameda Research允許在 FTX上持有負餘額並豁免交易所的風險協議。SEC 表示，SBF親自指示 FTX 的「風險引擎」（Risk Engine）不適用於 Alameda Research，並向投資人隱瞞兩家公司之間的關聯程度。
此外，SEC 主席詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）表示，SBF在欺騙的基礎上打造一座紙牌屋，同時告訴投資人這是加密貨幣領域數一數二安全的建築之一。
五、台版「FTX詐騙案」
台灣Steaker數位資產管理平台創辦人暨執行長黃偉軒涉近日亦爆出涉不法吸金，涉嫌從2020年起在官網成立「保本投資方案」，以「高固定利率」對外招攬投資，不法金額達數億，稍早遭檢方聲押。
事實上，黃偉軒靠著比特幣交易起家，進而投入虛擬貨幣錢包領域，2019年創立Steaker平台，爾後管理超過新台幣20億元的資產，是台灣區塊鏈的傳奇人物。
31歲的黃偉軒就讀台大資工系期間購入比特幣，嗅到區塊鏈與虛擬貨幣產業的潛力，開始深入研究。研究所期間則開始專研虛擬貨幣錢包、分散式運算、共識機制的研究，畢業後曾進入Yahoo雅虎擔任軟體工程師。
經過時間累積，黃偉軒在2017年受到黃立成提攜，進入旗下虛擬貨幣項目「秘銀（MITH）」並在隔年擔任公司執行副總。
隨後黃偉軒更鎖定虛擬貨幣資產管理領域，於2019年創辦Steaker平台。
Steaker平台打出「提供多元組合性商品，幫助用戶輕鬆配置虛擬資產，創造鏈上收益」理念，希望能讓投資虛擬貨幣變得更為平易近人，並提供年化報酬率從6%到36%的「美元穩定幣」方案，協助投資人降低自主操作的風險，成功在幣海殺出一條血路，客群囊括投資小白與高資產人士。
然而，全球第二大虛擬貨幣交易所FTX破產後，Steaker也受到波及，帳面損失金額達1066萬美元，隨後就爆出公司高層遭調查的消息，是否與FTX事件有關仍待釐清。
該公司表示，「自FTX系統性風險事件造成Steaker業務上的衝擊及損失後，創辦人Wilson Huang及團隊一直未曾放棄，試圖擬出方案幫助公司以及受影響用戶獲得補償，並且向FTX展開追償行動，更積極地規劃未來藍圖，期望以新推展的業務儘速幫助公司及本次受影響用戶脫離虧損開始獲利。」
向FTX展開追償行動？亦即投資人資產可能化為烏有，恐摔至18層地獄的地下室……。
六、跋尾—當加密貨幣、美元不再避險
■大賣空本尊：FTX破產效應可能在幣圈蔓延，買進黃金時機已到！
電影「大賣空」本尊貝瑞 (Michael Burry) 罕見對金價發表評論，使這次的發言格外引人矚目。他認為現在已到買進黃金的時機，理由是加密貨幣交易所 FTX 破產事件有在幣圈蔓延開來的風險。
貝瑞現為 Scion資產管理公司經理人，他當年曾成功預測「次貸危機」並大賺一筆，2021年也在散戶軋空 GameStop 之前就先買進該檔股票，讓荷包賺飽。
11/15 日貝瑞在推特上發文說：「我長期以來認為，當幣圈醜聞連爆並擴散開來，就是買進黃金的時刻。」
從貝瑞推文內容幾乎可以確定，他所說的是 FTX 破產事件和其引發的連環效應。
貝瑞另外透露，現在擁有龐大的股票空頭部位，他在另一則同樣已遭刪除的推文中說：「大家都不知道，此刻我有多看空。」
這位知名投資人此言可能意在警告投資人，不要被短期反彈騙了。儘管美股近期反彈，貝瑞仍重申看空的立場。
支持加密貨幣人一直把比特幣等加密代幣視為「數位黃金」，主張加密貨幣比黃金更適合做為避險資產和保值工具。
但加密貨幣價格2022年來一落千丈，整體市值從2.2兆美元一度暴跌至8300億美元。
反觀黃金11月以來上漲近10%，一甩連跌七個月的陰霾，2022年來幾乎持平，甚至遠勝2022年來共下跌17% 的標普500 指數。
黃金期貨12/22日收高至每盎司1800美元之上，此讓一些投資人再次關注金價走勢。2022年助長金價的因素包括美國通膨降溫、聯準會可能放慢升息步調；美元貶值；幣圈風險；中國增加黃金儲備等。
■比特幣趨勢可率先反映股市趨勢變化？
Delphi Digital 針對過去數據的分析顯示，在過去 5年中，比特幣發生重大價格逆轉的時間點，比特幣走勢往往領先主要股市指數。
歷史表明，平均來說，比特幣比標普 500指數早 48天見頂，約早 10天見底。
例如比特幣在 2021年11 /11日達到 69000美元的峰值，比標普500指數在2022年1 /4 日達到 4818點高點，早了 55天。另標普 500指數在 2018年初達到頂峰，也發生在比特幣衝上2萬美元之後。
反之，標普500指數此前於2020年3 /23日和 2018年12 /24日觸底，而比特幣則比它各早了 11天和 8天觸底。
其原因可能在於，比特幣和其他加密貨幣，被投資者視為比股票更具風險的資產。正如布魯金斯學會的 Eswar Prasad 2021年所指出，比特幣已成為一種投機性投資，因此率先反映趨勢變化。
尤其到目前為止，數位資產已被證明，走勢主要是資金驅動的，估值幾乎完全取決於法定貨幣供應的擴張速度，像是美元印鈔數量QE和影響聯準會政策的通貨膨脹率等因素。所以，加密貨幣市場是對全球流動性擴張和貨幣貶值最純粹的押注之一。它不僅受到宏觀因素的影響，而且當市場資金狀況發生變化時，它往往是第一個做出反應的。
雖然企業基本面和總體經濟因素直接影響股票，但有時間遞延的現象。因此，股市投資者應該密切關注比特幣走勢變化。
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