嚴守操作紀律
2home.co 楊惟婷
趙客縵胡纓，吳鉤霜雪明。
銀鞍照白馬，颯沓如流星。
十步殺一人，千里不留行。
事了拂衣去，深藏身與名。
閒過信陵飲，脫劍膝前橫。
將炙啖朱亥，持觴勸侯嬴。
三杯吐然諾，五嶽倒爲輕。
眼花耳熱後，意氣素霓生。
救趙揮金槌，邯鄲先震驚。
千秋二壯士，烜赫大梁城。
縱死俠骨香，不慚世上英。
誰能書閣下，白首太玄經。
——–李白 《俠客行》
一、要用操盤角度來分析，別用分析角度來操盤
我們常常會聽到老手說：「市場永遠是對的。」
我們的確要對市場時時心懷敬畏。
價格走勢通常會暗示「市場的預期」。
通常市場會事先反應預期心理，將發生的事情往往已在股價上被定價，而這預期心理的背後所代表的即是資金的流動。
以多方為例，當預期復工後將出現景氣復甦時，即使真正的效益還沒發生，但因市場已認同後續效益將會發生，資金就會提前卡位，進而造就一波漲勢，例如這次的新經濟概念股即是如此。
價格走勢通常也會暗示「市場的偏好」。
因為價格走勢是各路資金逐鹿，各種不同看法實際進行交易，最後分出勝負呈現的結果。
假如您是技術分析的信奉者，在這波資金行情推升下，不甩基本面，「市場的偏好」是股價剛站上季線(60日均線)的股票，即一檔股票的股價從季線下方，藉由買盤推升，剛剛站上季線，讓技術面出現由空翻多的現象，許多符合這一條件的股票，無論是什麼產業、什麼概念、什麼族群等，之後都出現了一波漲勢。
與其心中糾結該不該選擇蘋概股、防疫股？該不該追進，該不該等待？許多放下心中成見的散戶，可藉由是否站上季線的技術條件來選股，反而省去複雜的基本面分析的迷惘，只要嚴守股價剛站上季線(60日均線) 買進的操作紀律，即可獲利匪淺，這就是讓市場令人敬畏的魅力吧！
二、嚴守投資紀律，才能擺脫恐懼、貪婪與從眾的人性弱點
紀律，乍聽之下像是一種很枯燥與無趣的美德，但事實上，這卻是一個非常難養成、難以持續，並且極為重要的一種心理素質訓練。
其實如果你仔細觀察，在任何一種職業上有所成就的人，都少不了紀律，紀律代表著高度的自我要求，代表仔細思索過所面臨的挑戰，確認自己應該要執行的每一個基本步驟，並且落實執行。沒有紀律地執行，再好的創意與再高明的策略也是空談。
而投資人進出市場，為何也要嚴守投資紀律？
因為人性有弱點，大多數的投資人看到大跌就恐懼、看到大漲就貪婪、看不懂就從眾，往往在追高殺低中自我毀滅。
根據個人的觀察，從這波疫情爆發以來，能夠掌握到行情的主要有三種人：
1、是所謂的技術分析派，因為均線等指標交叉向上呈多頭排列，使得許多技術派投資者開始嘗試投入資金配合趨勢作多。
2、是所謂的價值投資派，這類型的投資人會去衡量股價的合理價值，在這一波市場普遍悲觀的時候股票價值嚴重低估，而這些人也勇於進場布局。
3、是定期定額的投資人，靠著定期定額強迫投資，剛好在這波漫長的下跌段把平均成本壓低，一旦市場反轉時，也紛紛開始出現獲利。
這些經驗告訴我們，當很多人認為可以靠自己判斷去決定買賣點的時候，卻實際上往往因人性弱點而錯失很多關鍵機會。例如這波疫情爆發以來，有很多投資人紛紛把基金停扣，並且認為市場還會壞很久，想等到市場變好之後再繼續扣款，但往往事與願違。
人們往往覺得自己可以很容易的判斷市場方向，但是實際上並非如此，過多紛雜的訊息，容易讓人錯估市場行情，而能夠獲勝的往往是那些堅持紀律的投資人。
根據上述提到的那三種人，第一種人是大多數人比較難去仿效的，畢竟技術分析與順勢投資需要相當的經驗與膽識，這種投資模式也難以去複製。除了第一種人之外，就是價值投資與定期定額這兩種做法比較容易讓大多數人接受，也比較容易去執行的投資紀律。
另外，大多數的投資書籍只教你如何買，卻不教你如何賣？
而市場中總是流傳著一句笑話：「只知道買的人是徒弟，知道何時賣的人才是師傅。」一語道破，如何做出賣出的決策，顯得無比重要。
因為只有真正的賣出，獲利才是真實的，不然都只是紙上談兵。簡單來講，沒有真正賣出前，都只是帳面數字的變化，紙上富貴罷了。
投資人若不懂賣股技巧，往往賣光強勢股、滿手套牢一堆弱勢股，如同在操盤一個基金般的辛苦！
對於賣出時點的問題往往在於「心魔」，而不在於估價，不是你不知道何時賣，而是你捨不得賣。例如，關於賣出，投資者常有的問題是：
預期報酬率目標要設定多少，比較合理？
當價位的短期目標抵達後，又是否續抱？
如果賣出後，股價又繼續上漲該怎麼辦？
是否利用技術型態觀察，等頭部訊號出現再賣會不會比較好？
我想，我必須誠實的告訴各位：「這些問號，都是受無紀律的投資心魔影響了你。」
通常理智會告訴你該賣出了，但理智又往往被貪念的心魔給殺死，我們我們常常做出背道而馳的決定，所以，記得不想被情緒所控制是需要不斷練習的！
也不要忘記，懂得買進只是聰明的徒弟，懂得賣出，你才真正成了投資高手！
資本市場之所以有趣，就在於它不是賭博。只要投資人能打敗恐懼、貪婪與從眾的這三項人性的弱點，長期下來就可以獲利。那到底要怎麼做呢？
這裡提供你善設「停損、停利」有效打敗人性的投資方法：
即投資之前，要先告訴自己賺多少要收手，賠多少要棄守。
假設你花 10 萬元買股票，停利設 15%，停損設定 10%。
當股票漲到 11.5 萬元，你就一定要賣出股票，將 1.5 萬入袋為安。
當股票跌到 9 萬元時，你也一定要賣出，防止虧損擴大。
這樣強制自己賣股票的方式，就可以抵抗人性的錯誤判斷！
三、投資成功的通用法則：超越情緒、保持冷靜與嚴守紀律！
巴菲特的投資信條：「在別人貪婪時恐懼，在別人恐懼時貪婪。」
巴菲特是價值型投資人，他相信股票的價格，圍繞著公司內在價值在跑。所以他買賣的理念很簡單：便宜時買，太貴就要賣。
一般人買賣股票，往往都被情緒所左右，但巴菲特則是方法確定了，就嚴格遵守紀律！
在股市大漲時，人們會因為貪婪而不理性的買進太貴的股票。但巴菲特會提醒自己：「在我的策略裡，現在是不是太貴了？」
在股市跌深時，人們也會因為恐懼而不敢買，但巴菲會也會提醒自己：「在我的策略裡，是不是該撿便宜了？」
事實證明，巴菲特用紀律克服人性弱點，賺到年化報酬率 20% 的投資傳奇！
例如在2014年7月28日，台股曾發生「基亞事件」，當天股票開盤就跌停板，往後一連下跌20支跌停板，造成散戶、大戶、金主嚴重套牢虧損。這個事件的主因是基亞（3176）開發的新藥送美檢驗，第一關便未通過。
其實從2014年3月起，基亞股價即從200元開始飆漲，市場就開始炒作這個題材的「本夢比」，因為基亞在第一季的每股收益是賠1.11元，一家賠錢公司的股價高達200元，這就已經脫離正常本質了。
而這種類型股票的飆漲，絕對要利用技術分析、嚴守紀律來操作，在多頭上漲的階段做多，當空頭形成時立刻出場，不符合短線進場基本條件，就不要進場，進場後，則要守紀律及時出場，自然就能避開此種風險。
又以新冠肺炎股災為例，全球市場連環性地爆量下跌，投資人普遍存在一種恐慌的氣氛，這種時候身為專業投資機構，其實真的能夠做的專業動作也很有限。首先，基金經理人絕對不會願意在這時候去調整投資組合，因為事後來看，一定是殺到最低點。而且通常為了流動性的需要，通常一定會去砍有獲利且流動性高的藍籌股，這些股票通常都是投資組合的核心持股，當初也是因為看好其獲利成長性而做的佈局，此時被迫去降低核心持股，等於是被迫回應市場的信心危機，通常是不智的。投資顧問也不會建議客戶在這時去殺低，因為在情勢不明之下做的投資決策也絕非明智之舉。
但是市場就是這麼恐慌，投資人就是會有情緒，這時候基金經理人要做與能做的，是與專業站在一起，冷靜與理性地分析所有的資訊，堅持他在平日所做的所有基本動作，不去與市場的恐慌起舞。而投資顧問，則應該也必需與客戶站在一起，與客戶充份溝通看法，以及來自投資團隊的信念，不受客戶的情緒影響，做對的事情，靜待市場回歸理性。
這些動作，看似簡單合理，但是有賴於平常就練就的基本功，以及自我要求的紀律，因為人都有情緒，專業人士也一樣，如果沒有紀律的養成，絕對無法在非常時期保持冷靜與專業。
總之，股價走勢圖是所有參與市場交易的投資人共同創造出來的圖騰，尤其是控盤主力、外資、壽險大戶、大股東們或政府基金，也擁有主導大盤走勢方向的力量及個股股價造勢加持，所以，散戶一定要具備看懂股價走勢圖的能力，看懂股價圖形透露的訊號，才可在自己的操作策略指引下，嚴守紀律操作，才能夠輕鬆應付股市的千變萬化。
其實，相信技術分析、嚴守紀律操作，就是相信趨勢、順勢操作，每個贏家不都是這麼說、這麼做的嗎？
四、如何執行投資紀律？
(一)嚴守價值投資的「危機、入市」操作紀律
誠如投資大師巴菲特說過：「市場悲觀的時候，就是價值投資人貪婪的時候」，這句話雖然隨處可見，但是實際做起來卻不是那麼容易，一旦市場極度悲觀，要投資人買的下手，也是需要極大的勇氣與信心。
巴菲特說：「別人恐懼我貪婪；別人貪婪我恐懼。」說的就是一種逆勢交易方式！此法可運用在長線行情超跌過頭、個股價格低估時，「逆勢」進場做長線佈局，如同菜價在颱風天超漲或在豐收時超跌一樣的性質。
過去歷史一再的證明，市場的低點往往出現在投資人極度悲觀的時刻，因此要能夠學習巴菲特「危機、入市」的操作紀律。
(二)嚴守技術分析的「停損、停利」操作紀律
同理，吾人亦可利用技術指標來判斷大盤行情、個股價格超漲與超跌範圍，「逆勢」進場搶短。即逢低可買進，逢高則賣出。
比方說，著名的 KD 指標及 RSI 指標就是一種逆勢指標，可以用來判定市場在短期內是否過熱。
當 K 值超過 80，認為市場過熱，可伺機停利賣出
當 K 值低於 20，認為市場過冷，可伺機逢低買進
這種操作就可以稱為「逆勢交易」。
由於未來本是不可預知的，隨時有黑天鵝、灰犀牛出現。所以，才需要投資前先設定好停損點、停利點再買進，未來一旦停損點、停利點被觸及，不管賺賠，也要遵守紀律進退。例如，當設定的賣出價位來臨時，就要嚴守紀律賣出。而不是被貪念的心魔給殺死，就只想賣在最高點，你說是吧？
(三) 嚴守「定期、(不)定額」的長期操作紀律
「定期、(不)定額買進」的投資法，也可打敗人性弱點：
當你選定了穩健的股票或基金，你就每個月固定投入一定的錢買進。
就算市場上股價變動很大，你也不用擔心情緒起伏影響投資。
假設你每個月投入 1 萬元，股價便宜時，一張股票只要 5000 元，那你就會買到兩張。股價高漲時，一張股票可能變 1 萬元，你就會只買到一張。
長期下來，定期定額 有「逢低加碼」特性，可以確保你手中股票的平均價位，絕不會在高點！
巴菲特的恩師-班傑明‧葛拉漢 (Benjamin Graham) 在他的著作當中有提到一個長期的投資法，他建議投資人可以同時持有穩健的股票與債券部位，並設訂一定的比例 (譬如50／50)，然後當股票市場上揚的時候，投資人可能發現市場過熱，因此部分減少股票的部位，並將資金移轉到可能相對偏低的債券上。
而反過來也是如此，一旦股票市場狂跌，而債券價格相對上揚時，投資人可以把債券部位減碼，並將資金移往股票部位上。透過這樣獲利了結漲高的部位，並將資金轉向相對偏低的資產，長期這樣透過低買高賣，會是一個相當穩健獲利的投資法則。
我對這種投資方式相當欣賞，不過很多投資人也許會想知道，我們該怎麼樣去調整股債部位才算是合理，況且要怎樣才能夠強迫自己敢在市場低點的時候買進，而不會被恐慌的氣氛影響 ?
我發現其實許多基金公司已經提供了類似的平台可供投資人使用， 只要投資人有興趣，就可以將前面提到巴菲特與班傑明‧葛拉漢的法則合併操作：
首先，投資人可以藉由基金公司這樣的交易平台去建構自己的投資組合，以複合投資法為例，透過他們的平台可以讓投資人先建構基本組合，然後隨市場變動把資金從穩健的標的 (如債券) 分批移轉到風險高的資產 (如股票) 上，一旦市場行情過熱，整體部位可能達到既定的報酬，則資金又會從高風險的資產移轉回低風險資產上。藉由不斷重複這樣的模式，可以進行葛拉漢所說，在不同資產上透過低買高賣的策略來獲利。
而另外一方面，巴菲特鼓勵投資人要逢低入市，但是要真的敢逢低入市是相當困難的。因此投資人其實可以選擇績效長期穩健良好的基金，透過低檔增加扣款金額，逢高減少扣款金額的方式進行定期不定額投資。這種投資方式也許短期並不容易立即看到成效，但是一旦將時間拉長，效果將會慢慢浮現，其實就連班傑明‧葛拉漢也認為定期投資長期而言是個不錯的投資法則。
總之，無論是什麼樣的投資方式，選擇好的投資標的以及好的投資紀律是成功獲利的不二法門，如果投資人認為光靠自己很難堅守投資紀律，不如就利用基金公司現有的投資平台來協助我們達成目標。
(四) 嚴守「順勢交易」的操作紀律
當投資人判斷市場有一股動能在推動目前價格，於是「跟著買進上車」，如同順水推舟，這類操作就可以稱為「順勢交易」策略。
這是藉由趨勢的力量，當你認為市場將會有一段後續上漲趨勢，因此跟隨趨勢買進，就可輕鬆的達到獲利目標！
這個順勢交易技術，例如有個簡單方法：
即當股價由下而上穿越「週線20MA」，多頭趨勢成形，就買進；
相反的，當股價由上而下穿越「週線20MA」，空頭趨勢成形，就賣出。
此方法很簡單，問題在您能否克服「恐懼、貪婪心魔」，嚴守投資紀律？
通常，順勢交易者追求一波段趨勢行情，而不在乎買最低、賣最高，只在乎能確實掌握其中一半以上的波段趨勢獲利！
即使小虧損次數多，但絕不錯過大賺行情，這即是市場上有名的「海龜交易法」。
就是長週期、順勢交易的一種。
使用這種方法的交易者，常常會連續停損超過 10 次、持續數個月的虧損，但只要出現數月一次或數年一次的大趨勢，獲利通常十分豐碩！
(五) 嚴守「金字塔投資法」的操作紀律
尚有一種打敗人性弱點的投資法：金字塔投資法。
金字塔型投資法是先找尋一檔穩健股票，之後只要運用「在便宜的時候，多買一點。在貴的時候，盡量賣掉。」長期下來買低賣高，獲利會很可觀。
要注意，金字塔操作法要有一定的資金，和決斷的執行力。
因為在逆境中加碼買股票，的確是需要充足的勇氣！
五、跋——理智本身是一種信仰
歌德說：「一個人應該：活潑而守紀律，天真而不幼稚，勇敢而魯莽，倔強而有原則，熱情而不衝動，樂觀而不慷慨，尤其是還有謙虛，就會使人贏得好感。」
泰戈爾說：「對我們的習慣不加節制，在我們年輕精力旺盛的時候，不會立即顯出它的影響。但是它逐漸消耗這種精力，到衰老時期我們不得不結算帳目，並且償還導致我們破產的債務。」
若想在股海爭雄，除了堅定自己投資哲學的信仰、擬定進退合宜的投資策略及投法心法的砌磋學習外，最後即必須鍛鍊自己內心強大的力量，以征服心魔！
因為投資理財最大的敵人，常常是我們內心自我貪念、恐懼與從眾的人性弱點作祟，誤導我們當下做出了錯誤的選擇，所以，只有運用嚴格紀律、自我約束，才有可能交出長期獲利的佳績！
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