原油市場的春天還會來嗎？
2home.co 楊惟婷
一、原油市場供需狀況已大幅改善
依《油氣雜誌》7月9日報導，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）秘書長巴爾金都（Mohammed Barkindo）表示，所有主要產油國家包括美國、G-20以及OPEC+在4月份達成協議干預市場，是石油市場能夠從全球大流行疫情當中恢復穩定的重要關鍵。
再依國際能源署(IEA) 7月10日發布月度報告預計，2020年全球石油需求平均每日9210萬桶，年減790萬桶，其中上半年全球石油需求每日下滑1075萬桶，年減 11%。IEA預計下半年需求每日下滑510萬桶，原油市場供需狀況已大幅改善。
原油供應方面，IEA 數據顯示，6月全球石油供應量較4月減少1370萬桶/日，當時石油輸出國家組織及其他產油國 (OPEC+) 同意終結石油價格戰並實施大規模減產，在沙烏地阿拉伯執行100 萬桶/日額外減產，將OPEC供應量壓低至近30年新低的情況下，IEA預計，減產協議執行率將高達108％。
此外，美國方面也為緊縮的原油市場提出貢獻。IEA 預計，美國5月和6月的原油產量分別下滑130萬桶/日和50萬桶/日。
然而美國、巴西等國家病例飆增，仍提醒著我們疫情尚未獲得控制，讓市場復甦前景仍面臨著下行風險，IEA 因此下調第三季的石油需求預期。
二、美國頁岩油業者在油價40美元收支仍無法平衡
曾經，在油價往3位數飆升的年代，頁岩油是美國產業的明日之星，是美國轉為能源出口國的驕傲。但隨著油價下挫，2019年的頁岩油公司開始爆發破產。
即使原油價格在2020年第2季由低點反彈，並重新站上每桶40美元關卡，但對負債累累、掙扎求生的美國頁岩油業者來說，這樣的價位收支仍無法平衡。例如美國頁岩油產業典型代表 Chesapeake Energy(崔石比克能源) 也申請破產保護。
而Chesapeake也幾乎可以肯定不會是最後一個犧牲者，據《CNN》分析，如果油價維持每桶40美元現狀，多達30%的美國頁岩油公司將會破產。僅2020年上半年，美國能源行業負債超過5000萬美元的公司，提交破產申請的家數已經超過 20 家。
諮詢公司 Wood Mackenzie表示，不管有沒有COVID-19，這一結果都有可能發生，美國頁岩油產業的問題可以用一個詞描述，就是「過度」——過度負債、過度成本、過度汽油供應，最終造成此一結果。美國頁岩油業者在油價40美元收支仍無法平衡，仍須面臨破產潮，有助市場長遠供給緊縮。
三、疫情造成石油行業的投資不足，造成市場長期供給緊張
避險基金Northern Trace Capital投資長Trevor Woods表示，疫情造成石油行業的投資下滑，對市場長遠供給將有緊縮的衝擊，例如美國最大石油公司埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil Corp.）表示將削減2020年資本支出達100億美元或30%。他預期至2025年油價將會再度達到每桶150美元價位。
JPMorgan分析師Christyan Malek也稱，由於投資不足，油價未來兩年可能上漲至每桶100美元。
四、巴菲特終於出手，花近100億美元搶天然氣資產
自2020年肺炎疫情蔓延以來，巴菲特進行大規模停損航空、金融產業持股，並蟄伏迄今，波克夏公司一直握有1370億美元的現金儲備。
近日股神巴菲特旗下波克夏哈薩威終於出手，預計斥資40億美元收購 Dominion Energy 天然氣資產，連同承擔債務在內，這筆交易總額近100億美元。
Dominion Energy 正尋求電力轉型，到包括風能、太陽能和天然氣等潔淨能源。交易完成後，預計未來公司的營運獲利有 90% 將來自其公用事業公司，這些公司為維吉尼亞州、北卡羅來納州、南卡羅來納州、俄亥俄州和猶他州等州，約 700 多萬客戶提供能源。
與此同時，Dominion 宣布取消與 Duke Energy 合作的大西洋岸管道專案，此一計畫因愈來愈多的監管審查和延誤，而造成成本激增。
對波克夏來說，這次出手幫助公司擴大在天然氣業務中的版圖，由全美州際天然氣運量的 8%，提升到 18%。
根據交易條款，波克夏將收購 Dominion 能源傳輸公司、Questar 管道公司和 Carolina Gas Transmission 公司 100% 的股權，以及 Iroquois 天然氣傳輸系統 50% 的股權。波克夏還將收購 Cove Point LNG 公司 25% 的股權。Cove Point LNG 是美國僅有的 6 個液化天然氣出口碼頭之一，擁有液化天然氣的進出口和儲存設施。波克夏能源部門將支付 40 億美元現金收購這些資產，並承擔 57 億美元的債務。
3月曾經失手的股神，6月再重出江湖，他準備好了嗎？巴菲特的價值投資理念能再風生水起嗎？
五、由「金油比」來看，油價被低估？
傳統上，原油與黃金容易出現正相關，特別在高通膨時期，原油期貨獲得支撐，而黃金做為避險的工具也會上漲，儘管兩者並不會直接影響。但在金價站上每盎司1800美元之際，油價仍持續低迷，在每桶40美元附近徘徊。
市場上有人運用「金油比」做為參考指標，計算多少桶石油能買到1盎司黃金才合理。所以摩根士丹利公司認為，從歷史上看，黃金石油比一直不是個預測油價的良好指標，關注油價未來發展的投資人，可以參考「金油比」來幫助決策。
不過，以2020年迄今的表現來看，油金少見地往兩個極端方向發展，布蘭特原油期貨2020年下跌逾 35%，是自2015年以來最糟的一年。相反地，黃金期貨2020年的價格上漲了19%以上，有望成為2010年以來最好的時刻。
摩根士丹利進一步指出，儘管油價已經由4月底的低點反彈，但金油比仍然處於 1980年以來的第99個百分位的極端值。也就是說，如果相同的時間，用黃金來購買油價，當前的油價約等同1986年的低點，比2016年初的低點還要便宜 20%。
依摩根士丹利發表報告指出，這一指標近期已經來到極端值，有關注的意義。這至少說明油價可能上漲的機會，特別是如果基本面也看漲時，油價就容易攀升。
六、中國未來可能成為全球油價的新制定者？
2018年3月，中國推出以人民幣計價的原油期貨，一開始只有國內投資人參與，但2020年國際油價重挫，相對於美國油價4月曾破天荒跌到負值，中國油價期貨市場卻相對穩定，讓國際投資人把眼光轉向中國。
依上海期貨交易所指出，2020年以來，原油期貨外國投資人日均交易量佔比約16%，日均持倉量佔比約28%，比2019年成長了兩倍以上，投資人包括來自19個國家和區域的石油商、貿易公司和製造業者。
中國原油期貨市場升溫，這對一件事是帶來助益：中國一直希望能夠增加人民幣的吸引力，藉此降低美元對全球大宗商品的定價影響力。
雖然，上海原油期貨還有很長的路要走。然而，一個原油期貨市場的規模，很大程度決定了定價能力。目前，依持倉量來看，上海原油期貨還不足以挑戰國際大型基準原油。截至6月29日，上海原油期貨的持倉量約為14萬6,000份，相比之下，美國的紐約西德州原油（WTI）和英國的倫敦布蘭特原油（Brent）持倉量多達百萬。
除此之外，中國是全球最大石油進口國。交易員和石油公司將從中國和國際的石油價差受益，能夠購買中東原油，並在中國市場實物交易。同時，當中國原油期貨市場越來越熱鬧，是否代表中國未來可能成為全球油價的新制定者？
中國是全球最大石油進口國，他的一舉一動牽動原油市場需求，他的世界工廠及消費市場準備啓動了嗎？
七、元大石油期貨ETF的春天還會來嗎？
元大S&P原油正2 ETF還有明天嗎？
3個月前，投資人曾搶買元大S&P原油正2，溢價一度高達300多%，蔚為奇觀。
即使現在，如果您看清楚元大S&P原油正2在7月15日的溢價尚有79%，不難心寒，尤其當天淨值僅為0.88元，在9月底前正2淨值回不去2元了，未來下市陰霾仍驅之不散。若是想搶搭油價反彈列車，元大S&P原油正2 ETF（00672L）忘了他吧！
其實，相對有機會的選擇就是它的兄弟——元大S&P石油（00642U）。
它在7月15日的溢價只有7%，價格相對合理而有獲利機會，喜歡抄底油價的投資人可留意。
疫情總會過去、經濟活動遲早要恢復，在幽暗低谷、人棄我取才是長期投資鐵律！
冬天總會過去，春天還會遠嗎？
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