拜登勝選過後
2home.co 楊惟婷
一、在偉大與道德之間，「標普 500 指數」已預告川普將敗選
蘋果、亞馬遜、微軟、Facebook和Alphabet等大型科技股已支持了2020年的美股反彈。但過去幾週，隨著疫情持續升高，以及國會近日不可能通過紓困計畫來支撐經濟，獲利回吐的賣壓日益加重，大型科技股也開始領跌美股。
以美國總統大選預測指標「標普 500 指數」來看，往年預測美國總統大選結果都相當準確，只要追蹤該指標七月底至十月底的標普表現，若標普表現不佳，則預告現任執政黨將會敗選。以1984年後資料來看，選前表現與選後結果的關係準確度高達 100%，而1928年以來也有 87% 的準確度。
冥冥中自有天擇……
由於今年標普在10月底大跌，為川普連任帶來了壞消息。即美國總統大選預測指標「標普 500 指數」已預告，現任美國總統川普將敗選……。
二、若拜登順利勝選，美國股市的冰與火兩股力量會形成急跌、反彈逃命波
(一) 拜登的加稅冰風暴
在美國總統大選後，如果拜登入主白宮及民主黨同時控制參議院，拜登的加稅政見未來必會落實，屆時這將成為美股最大黑天鵝。
以拜登的加稅政見來看，把資本利得稅與股息視為一般收入來課稅，表示年收入逾100萬美元以上的家庭的所得稅率，由 20％大增到 39.6％。
原本收入100萬美元的家庭只課稅20萬美元，拜登當選總統後，變成近40萬美元，暴增一倍，勢必衝擊高收入家庭的未來消費支出及投資規劃，這情形宛如2012年台灣證所稅上路般悽慘。
當拜登當選，投資人將會趕在今年底前出脱今年漲幅大的科技股，來減少明年資本利得稅，等到了明年初，再把股票買回，這就會造成美國股市年底的大幅下跌。換言之，拜登勝選，今年底美股各類股跌勢最重將是科技股。屆時，美股向下修正 10％是最起碼的技術回檔。
同時，拜登也將會把企業所得稅逐步恢復到川普稅改前水準，即由現行的21％先加稅到28％，最後加到35％。
一旦拜登針對企業所得稅加稅，這將會使得 S&P 500獲利降低9.2％，由於這幾年美股牛市最大的買盤是來自企業減稅後的庫藏股回購，而加稅將使大企業也沒能力回購自家股票了，並立刻造成企業的資金外流，美元持續貶值。尤其今年漲幅太大的科技股將會出現沈重市場心理壓力，最終美股將不只修正 10％，可能驚嚇向下修正10~20％。
借鏡歷史，美國經濟疲弱的時候加稅，這絕對是黑天鵝。尤其美國疫情讓基本面沒跟上股價，加上累積了11年的漲幅。因此，美股已經進入崩跌暴風圈了！
(二) 民主黨的新一輪的疏困刺激方案是拉高出貨盤
其實不論誰當選，對美國金融市場有重大影響的同一事件，也就是新紓困法案過關，都一定會發生。
但利多或利空都不會反應兩次，這是人類的行為模式，看過的利空就不會害怕，當然看過的利多也就會鈍化，今年2月底美國釋出2.2兆美元讓資產負債表到現在已經攀升超過7兆美元，台灣也大舉擴張財政刺激1.3兆台幣，你還緊盯第二次紓困案談判結果嗎?會通過的，但是股市的反應也會牛皮了?!
所以當二次通過紓困案，美國人拿到錢並不會去消費，只想把錢存起來過冬，因此這次紓困案過關，股市並不會向年初一樣上漲，反而會出現利多出盡的向下走勢。
當然，若川普連任，股市、貴金屬市場仍會上漲一下；若拜登獲勝，由於增稅訴求，可能會引發股票拋售，但由於民主黨主張的紓困方案規模大得多，貴金屬相較於川普當選將會有更大漲幅，更會享受大規模刺激帶來的好處。
但請記得，若年底前民主黨通遏新一輪的疏困刺激方案，會是川粉拉高出貨盤。
誠如2012年台灣證所稅上路般，主力將會趕在今年底前出脱今年漲幅大的科技股，來減少明年資本利得稅，等到了明年初，再把股票買回。
但由於拜登將推動二兆美元的綠能計劃，10年後美國境內不再蓋石化廠，所以綠能股下檔將有長線支撐。
三、若大選結果出現爭議，美股可能慘崩超過20%
援引美銀最新報告指出，川普或是拜登任何一方壓倒性獲勝，都是市場最期待的「不確定性」消失，不管選情如何激烈，避險情緒如何飆升，總有塵埃落定時。
市場最恐懼的情況是選舉結果爆出爭議，造成到2021年1月20日總統就職典禮前，仍無法和平權力轉移、造成不確定性。若大選陷入此紛爭情況，美股可能狂跌超過20%。
例如，如果選舉當天川普領先，而同時仍有大量郵寄選票未完成統計，那麼直到大選明確結果揭曉前，美股都可能出現劇烈動盪。
尤其如果雙方陣營票數接近，加上有疑慮的選票和各州重新計票，恐像2000年大選一樣，標普500指數先下跌5%，之後續跌，等最高法院於12 月12日裁決，將小布希送進白宮，股市才觸底。
四、台股投資組合需要「再平衡」策略
自2018年3月川普發動貿易戰以來二年，台灣是中美貿易戰「轉單效應」最大漁翁得利者，直接促使台商返鄉、台幣升升不息、炒房孜孜不倦。
然若拜登當選，拜登當然瓜田李下，不敢在任期第一年取消或調降對中產品的加徵關稅，當然也不會立馬鬆綁華為、中芯國際的禁售令。所以，轉單效應第一年是不會立刻消失的。
但以拜登一貫主張全球經濟合作的立場，中美貿易緊張關係將會比川普時期和緩，加上台灣是押注川普連任，所以第二年習近平應會以具體的開放大陸市場及承諾保護美國智財權，遞出這個橄欖枝，來交換拜登鬆綁中美貿易禁令。
G2逐步和緩中美貿易衝突，也將使台灣的轉單利益遞減，而股價通常敏感提前反應，不得不提防台股以前大利多變成未來大利空。
尤其台股半導體是近兩年中美貿易戰轉單的最大受惠族群，一旦拜登勝選，也可能就是台股獲利回吐最重的類股。此將使台股回測年線 11,500 點支撐？！
五、跋—西方亢龍有悔、東方見龍在田
IMF一直警告，金融市場與經濟情勢的脫節，可能會大幅回調，股市的估值一直攀升，但經濟復甦拖得更久，投資人樂觀情緒可能消退，全球股市今年上漲最大動力是央行貨幣刺激，來到某個臨界點，必須有實質經濟復甦的支持。
展望2021年：
2020年新冠肺炎爆發以來，中國祭出強制封城以及一連串公共衛生對策，帶動工業活動可以快速大幅復甦。
展望2021年中國將是全球最早復甦經濟體，此可能會導致海外資產管理經理人將資產轉移到中國，其他新興市場無法受益。例如據數據顯示，中國第二季外資投資成長約 5%，外國投資人也在中國債市大肆購買，總購買規模達創紀錄的335億美元，此由近期人民幣快速升值，應可嗅出聰明錢的流向。
若再從國際追蹤新興市場的指數來看最為明顯，iShares MSCI 新興市場 (中國除外) 今年以來下跌 6.3%，而 iShares MSCI 中國 ETF 則上漲 22.8%。
受惠於中國經濟的復甦，引導市場指數或基金投資人加速資金配置中國，進而促使更多資金流入中國，此在螞蟻金服IPO將掀最高潮，但也同時也使其他國家傷重不治。此時，今年蟄伏已久的中信中國A50 ETF將可特別留意。
另外，這次美國疏困，聯準會實行的寬鬆貨幣政策將使全球爛頭寸氾濫(美元反彈後仍會續貶)，加上拜登明年會推出大規模基礎建設刺激經濟成長，此將幫助大宗商品價格回升(尤其美元續貶助推)。在大興土木下，石油、銅、鐵和其他大宗商品的價格將得以提振，但也會引爆通膨。此時，今年蟄伏已久的元大石油ETF將可特別留意。
最後，2021年台幣也須小心逆流，此將讓房市淚水逆流成河……。
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