流動性短缺下的套現恐慌
楊惟婷
2home.co
一、從貨幣創造機制說起
1、由中央銀行控制的準備貨幣：
央行是國家的銀行，也是銀行中的銀行。
通常央行發行流通在市面上的通貨淨額和保有之銀行準備金，即所謂的準備貨幣。
通常，央行會透過訂定存款準備率、重貼現率及公開市場操作來引導利率走向，執行貨幣政策。
2、由商業銀行創造的存款貨幣：
存款貨幣係指個人或企業在銀行體系的支票存款、活期存款及活期儲蓄存款。存款貨幣主要由商業銀行所創造，又稱為銀行貨幣。
而對商業銀行而言，只有庫存現金，及在中央銀行的存款才能視為存款準備金。而當銀行保有的實際存款準備金超過法定存款準備金，其差額稱為超額準備。
3.銀行存款貨幣的創造過程
（1）貨幣基數：是創造存款貨幣的基礎，為銀行體系原始存款的來源。
（2）引申性存款：是銀行根據原始存款主動辦理放款、授信過程中再創造出來的存款。
（3）新增的貨幣供給量：包括原始存款及引申性存款。
（4）貨幣乘數：新增貨幣供給量是貨幣基數的倍數。
（5）簡單貨幣乘數即為法定準備率的倒數。
亦即 簡單貨幣乘數=1/法定準備率
（6）存款貨幣之創造數額＝貨幣基數*貨幣乘數
二、通貨緊縮的弔詭
自2008年金融風暴後，各國央行大行數量寬鬆、印鈔救市，致準備貨幣暴增，創造大量貨幣湧入市場，致市場一直有激化通膨之疑慮。
惟2008年金融風暴後，同樣也重創商業銀行創造存款貨幣能力，加上實體經濟創新不足，無法帶動實體投資而抵銷數量寬鬆的乘數效果，因而迄今尚未激化通膨。
但是創新不足，無法吸引資金流入實體投資，致游資金大量流入債市、股市、房市等金融性商品逐利。因此，數量寬鬆只是一直在孵化另一個泡沬、伺機而動。
三、美國消費者寅吃卯糧到了付帳時刻
美國經濟成長的主要動能一直是消費者支出在推動，由於美國消費者已經習慣借錢消費、寅吃卯糧墊高債務，此消費者債務數字包括信用卡債務、學生貸款、汽車貸款和抵押債務……..等。
依據美國聯準會發布數據，2019年11月消費者債務總額增長並創下新的紀錄，不過增長速度有所減緩，信用卡債務在過去4個月中，有3個月略有收縮。
《seekingalpha》文章作者 Steven Hansen 指出，與政府可以隨時印鈔不同，消費者個人信貸是有上限的，在過去的6個月中，信用卡借款顯著下降，對經濟來說不見得是好事。)
Hansen 表示，無論聯準會升息、降息，消費者支出和消費者債務通常傾向於同一方向發展，換句話說，隨著借款減少可能表明消費者正在關閉錢包。
在這樣的背景下，信用卡債務的降低未必是好事，更可能是他們快用光信用卡餘額的跡象，這對未來美國經濟的發展不見得是好兆頭。
在美國聯準會持續十多年QE之下，美國消費者已完全被「槓桿化」了。他們被鼓勵債務額創高紀錄，之所以還能一直花錢，原因在於聯準會將利率保持在足夠低的水準。因此即使缺少足夠的儲蓄支持，信貸仍在繼續流動。
但是亢龍有悔，一旦信用卡撐起的紙牌屋倒塌，美國消費者將正在其中，將被砸個正著。所以美國經濟並不像表面看起來那麼好，美國消費者似乎正在接近債務的頂點盡頭，消費力再難以支撐美國經濟的成長。
四、ETF水能載舟、亦能覆舟
由於投資人並沒有買進整體市場所有標的(所有股票或債券)的能力，因為這需要大量的資金，所以若想用少量資金一次投資到許多標的上，只有基金這一個選擇。
主動型基金是透過選擇標的物(選股)、選擇時機點(擇時)的方式，試圖做出預測，來取得更好的報酬，當然這不容易。然而許多研究數據證實，有很多的主動型基金表現很差、無法戰勝大盤。
一直到1970年被動投資(英文Passive Investing) 指數型基金出現，它是運用程式交易，過程不需要人為研究、不需要人為分析預測，直接追蹤指數，一次持有目標市場上的所有投資標的，得到跟目標市場長期經濟成長一樣的成果，所以也被稱為懶人投資法。
台灣常見的指數有：加權指數、電子指數、金融指數，
國外常聽見的有：S&P500指數、那斯達克指數等等。
到了1993年時，指數型基金的雙胞胎兄弟「ETF(交易所買賣指數基金)」也出現，
讓人們有了投資工具可以根據指數的權重比例，用很低的管理費成本(約0.1%)，一次投資全市場的標的。
這種用指數型基金或ETF一次投資全市場，並且不考慮進出策略，僅做長期買進持有(Buy & Hold)或定期定額，或不定期不定額的投資方法(分很多次買進持有)，
可取得跟整體市場相同的報酬率(也可以理解為長期經濟成長的報酬)，這種投資方法就被稱為「被動投資」。
選擇基金的關鍵在於分散投資。而「被動投資」可簡單地取得跟整體市場相同的報酬率。但其運用程式交易特性，易漲時追漲、跌時追殺。換句話說，這屬性在多頭容易獲利，在空頭若不懂停損，容易粉身碎骨。
值得一提的是，美股近期以來劇烈波動，即是美股ETF助漲、助跌的緣故。
這次，總算讓大家長見識了!
五、過度槓桿操作下的去槓桿恐慌
近期美國聯準會激進的貨幣政策，反而對金融市場形成下跌壓力，金融市場頻頻熔斷，持續震盪劇烈。
CMC Markets 首席策略師 Michael McCarthy 表示，全球金融市場多頭人氣正在潰散，股市持續暴跌，顯示市場預期疫情衝擊經濟持續時間恐將延長，更多的投資人正急於套現，而引爆套現潮。
瑞銀策略師 Dean Turner 和 Thomas Flury 指出，在近期金融市場持續動盪下，企業和投資人需要美元來結算交易，更加推升美元的需求。這期間大家爭搶美元資產，尋求避風港，美元指數也衝破102，創下2017年四月以來新高。
過去，外匯市場出現的「閃崩」，大多數發生在流動性不足的時候或假日期間，但這次出現了大規模的美元資金短缺是前所未見的，是金融市場極度混亂造成的現象。
因為這次美股在一個月內遭遇一連串殺盤、重挫萬點、頻頻破底後，迎來融資追繳、斷頭恐慌，不給市場有喘息的空間。
加上ETF程式交易的循環賣壓一波一波襲來，形成惡性循環的恐懼總合。
市場去槓桿，除了套現，還是套現，只要能夠變現的就瘋狂賣出。
六、美元亂世造英雄
此次美國聯準會意外連番大幅降息、並重啟金融風暴時期對短期公司債的購買( QE )後，美國財政部也推出約 1 兆美元的經濟刺激計畫，此舉無法減緩疫情衝擊，卻讓投資者加劇市場的恐慌情緒，紛紛爭相追逐美債避險，也使得 10 年期美債收益率首次跌破 1%，形成利率倒掛。
隨著新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情快速蔓延，引爆市場對疫情衝擊經濟的恐慌。
市場愈動盪之時，在全球具流動性佳和具儲備貨幣地位的美元，成為投資人急於套現、尋求避險標的；而企業界在市場動盪時，也秉持現金為王原則，尤其美國以外市場對美元融資的需求壓力山大，推升美元指數衝高到102附近高檔震盪 。
由於全球最強經濟體—美國的肺炎疫情失控，除了導致全球各大風險性資產出現嚴重賣壓、市場急欲追求流動性高的資產 (如: 現金) 外，部分槓桿投資人需應付風險性資產大幅下跌後的融資追繳令 (Margin Call)，想要獲利了結之前價格大漲的美債資產，使美債殖利率出現大幅波動的情形。
黃金是受益於美元下跌的一項避險資產，原本近期價格突破了 1,700 美元。
但當這次金融市場瞬間湧現融資追繳、套現避險壓力，此時美元避險功能更勝黃金，投資者爭相變現，連避險資產黃金也慘遭錯殺。
這即是，此波在市場大幅撤出風險性資產的同時，為何三大避險商品—-美債、黃金、日圓卻不漲反跌！
不過，隨着美國聯準會和其他央行通過互換等工具，在全球範圍內提供美元流動性，預期這些追買美元的恐慌買盤將得紓解，可預見未來，其它主要避險貨幣及商品一旦展開反彈，漲勢將和先前的跌勢一樣劇烈。總之，金融市場的不變法則即，漲多是最大利空、跌深是最大利多，亢龍有悔、否極泰來。
微信 
留言列表（682条）
I have observed that in the world nowadays, video games are definitely the latest popularity with children of all ages. Many times it may be impossible to drag your son or daughter away from the games. If you want the best of both worlds, there are many educational activities for kids. Thanks for your post.
The next time I read a blog, I hope that it won’t fail me just as much as this particular one. After all, Yes, it was my choice to read through, but I genuinely thought you would probably have something helpful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you could fix if you weren’t too busy seeking attention.
Your blog has rapidly become my trusted source of inspiration and knowledge. I genuinely appreciate the effort you invest in crafting each article. Your dedication to delivering high-quality content is apparent, and I eagerly await every new post.
Your passion and dedication to your craft radiate through every article. Your positive energy is infectious, and it’s evident that you genuinely care about your readers’ experience. Your blog brightens my day!
whoah this weblog is excellent i love reading your articles. Keep up the good work! You already know, a lot of individuals are looking around for this info, you could help them greatly.
In a world where trustworthy information is more crucial than ever, your dedication to research and the provision of reliable content is truly commendable. Your commitment to accuracy and transparency shines through in every post. Thank you for being a beacon of reliability in the online realm.
Your passion and dedication to your craft radiate through every article. Your positive energy is infectious, and it’s evident that you genuinely care about your readers’ experience. Your blog brightens my day!
Hello there I am so thrilled I found your webpage, I really found you by error, while I was browsing on Askjeeve for something else, Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a remarkable post and a all round thrilling blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to go through it all at the moment but I have saved it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read much more, Please do keep up the fantastic work.
I must commend your talent for simplifying complex topics. Your ability to convey intricate ideas in such a relatable way is admirable. You’ve made learning enjoyable and accessible for many, and I appreciate that.
Your unique approach to addressing challenging subjects is like a breath of fresh air. Your articles stand out with their clarity and grace, making them a pure joy to read. Your blog has now become my go-to source for insightful content.
Thank you for sharing indeed great looking !
I wanted to take a moment to express my gratitude for the wealth of valuable information you provide in your articles. Your blog has become a go-to resource for me, and I always come away with new knowledge and fresh perspectives. I’m excited to continue learning from your future posts.
Your positivity and enthusiasm are undeniably contagious! This article brightened my day and left me feeling inspired. Thank you for sharing your uplifting message and spreading positivity among your readers.
I have figured out some new things from your web-site about pcs. Another thing I’ve always considered is that laptop computers have become a product that each home must have for many people reasons. They provide convenient ways in which to organize homes, pay bills, search for information, study, listen to music and perhaps watch tv series. An innovative strategy to complete every one of these tasks is with a laptop. These computer systems are mobile ones, small, highly effective and mobile.
A great post without any doubt.
Everything is very open with a really clear clarification of the issues. It was truly informative. Your website is useful. Thanks for sharing.
Nice weblog here! Also your web site quite a bit up very fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my website loaded up as quickly as yours lol
What?s Happening i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I have found It absolutely helpful and it has helped me out loads. I hope to contribute & assist other users like its aided me. Great job.
bouncingball8
Thanks for your publication on this blog. From my very own experience, there are occassions when softening upwards a photograph could provide the wedding photographer with a chunk of an artistic flare. Oftentimes however, the soft blur isn’t what precisely you had under consideration and can frequently spoil an otherwise good image, especially if you thinking about enlarging them.
I appreciate, cause I found just what I was looking for. You have ended my 4 day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye
Have you ever considered creating an ebook or guest authoring on other blogs? I have a blog based on the same topics you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my visitors would value your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e-mail.
The very crux of your writing while appearing reasonable at first, did not work well with me after some time. Somewhere within the paragraphs you actually were able to make me a believer unfortunately just for a while. I however have a problem with your jumps in logic and you might do well to help fill in all those gaps. In the event you can accomplish that, I will certainly be fascinated.
I would like to thnkx for the efforts you have put in writing this blog. I am hoping the same high-grade site post from you in the upcoming also. Actually your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own website now. Really the blogging is spreading its wings rapidly. Your write up is a good example of it.
Your positivity and enthusiasm are undeniably contagious! This article brightened my day and left me feeling inspired. Thank you for sharing your uplifting message and spreading positivity among your readers.
In a world where trustworthy information is more crucial than ever, your dedication to research and the provision of reliable content is truly commendable. Your commitment to accuracy and transparency shines through in every post. Thank you for being a beacon of reliability in the online realm.
Your writing style effortlessly draws me in, and I find it nearly impossible to stop reading until I’ve reached the end of your articles. Your ability to make complex subjects engaging is indeed a rare gift. Thank you for sharing your expertise!
Your unique approach to tackling challenging subjects is a breath of fresh air. Your articles stand out with their clarity and grace, making them a joy to read. Your blog is now my go-to for insightful content.
Aw, this was an exceptionally nice post. Spending some time and actual effort to create a really good article… but what can I say… I hesitate a lot and don’t manage to get anything done.
I was pretty pleased to discover this web site. I want to to thank you for ones time for this fantastic read!! I definitely appreciated every part of it and i also have you book-marked to see new stuff on your blog.
Your positivity and enthusiasm are undeniably contagious! This article brightened my day and left me feeling inspired. Thank you for sharing your uplifting message and spreading positivity among your readers.
I simply wanted to convey how much I’ve gleaned from this article. Your meticulous research and clear explanations make the information accessible to all readers. It’s abundantly clear that you’re committed to providing valuable content.
I’ve discovered a treasure trove of knowledge in your blog. Your unwavering dedication to offering trustworthy information is truly commendable. Each visit leaves me more enlightened, and I deeply appreciate your consistent reliability.
I am continually impressed by your ability to delve into subjects with grace and clarity. Your articles are both informative and enjoyable to read, a rare combination. Your blog is a valuable resource, and I am sincerely grateful for it.
I want to express my sincere appreciation for this enlightening article. Your unique perspective and well-researched content bring a fresh depth to the subject matter. It’s evident that you’ve invested considerable thought into this, and your ability to convey complex ideas in such a clear and understandable way is truly commendable. Thank you for generously sharing your knowledge and making the learning process enjoyable.
I couldn’t agree more with the insightful points you’ve articulated in this article. Your profound knowledge on the subject is evident, and your unique perspective adds an invaluable dimension to the discourse. This is a must-read for anyone interested in this topic.
I’d like to express my heartfelt appreciation for this insightful article. Your unique perspective and well-researched content bring a fresh depth to the subject matter. It’s evident that you’ve invested considerable thought into this, and your ability to convey complex ideas in such a clear and understandable way is truly commendable. Thank you for sharing your knowledge so generously and making the learning process enjoyable.
A great post without any doubt.
I like it when people get together and share ideas. Great website, keep it up!
I’ve discovered a treasure trove of knowledge in your blog. Your unwavering dedication to offering trustworthy information is truly commendable. Each visit leaves me more enlightened, and I deeply appreciate your consistent reliability.
I’m genuinely impressed by how effortlessly you distill intricate concepts into easily digestible information. Your writing style not only imparts knowledge but also engages the reader, making the learning experience both enjoyable and memorable. Your passion for sharing your expertise shines through, and for that, I’m deeply grateful.
I simply wanted to convey how much I’ve gleaned from this article. Your meticulous research and clear explanations make the information accessible to all readers. It’s abundantly clear that you’re committed to providing valuable content.
I was just looking for this information for a while. After six hours of continuous Googleing, finally I got it in your site. I wonder what is the lack of Google strategy that don’t rank this kind of informative sites in top of the list. Usually the top web sites are full of garbage.
Thank you so much for sharing this wonderful post with us.
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You’ve made my day! Thanks again
Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive read anything like this before. So good to search out anyone with some unique ideas on this subject. realy thank you for beginning this up. this web site is one thing that is needed on the net, someone with a bit of originality. helpful job for bringing something new to the web!
Great website. Plenty of helpful info here. I?m sending it to a few buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And naturally, thanks to your sweat!
I need to to thank you for this good read!! I certainly loved every little bit of it. I’ve got you bookmarked to look at new stuff you post…
You ought to be a part of a contest for one of the most useful blogs on the internet. I am going to recommend this website!
I am continuously invstigating online for ideas that can benefit me. Thank you!