一顆蘋果救台灣?
2home.co 楊惟婷
全球第三大的蘋果代工廠緯創於7月17日宣布，以33億元人民幣出售旗下緯新資通（昆山、江蘇）組裝工廠，給蘋果大力扶植的大陸本土組裝大廠立訊集團，業界擔心台灣蘋果代工廠儼然已敲響警鐘了。
一、台系蘋果供應鏈面臨轉型
對台系蘋果供應鏈代工廠而言，營運表現好壞往往都是「成也蘋果、敗也蘋果」。
但為何緯創好不容易吃下蘋果iPhone訂單，茹苦含辛做了幾年生意就要出脫旗下工廠，把年營收近1,500億元的生意讓給大陸代工廠立訊，緯創資通董事長林憲銘心中到底在想什麼?
緯創自從在2015年切入蘋果代工組裝，取得低價機iPhone SE訂單，讓營收快速成長，卻長期在iPhone相關業務虧損；尤其緯創這幾年最大的問題，就在於接下iPhone手機訂單，但代工良率始終拉不起來，所以必須忍受低毛利率的壓力。
若翻開緯創財報就能發現，2019年緯創匯進大陸緯新昆山投資金額就高達30.55億元，累計總投資金額高達477億元；但在認列收益上，去年才認列2.6億元，也就是說，過去多年的投資根本無法回本。且這次緯創賣出大陸手機廠僅回收133億元，相對於累計投資477億元的付出來說，只能說少輸為贏的辛酸。
再從緯新2019年營收來看，該年度總營收1,422.11億元新台幣，所以緯創現在出脫大陸工廠，雖2021年緯創將短少近1,500億元新台幣營收；但從獲利來看，僅減少2.96億元新台幣；再以緯新目前淨值120.53億元新台幣來看，緯創這筆交易以33億元人民幣出售也沒賺頭。
其實，從立訊先後取得連接器、AirPod藍芽耳機等訂單，就可看出緯創在三大iPhone代工廠敬陪末座的角色，很可能在新一輪iPhone代工洗牌中緯創會率先出局。所以林憲銘下此壯士斷腕決定，應是已看出蘋果刻意扶植大陸代工廠的決心。老三緯創若仍執意苦守大陸組裝廠，未來勢將面臨更大削價競爭。
目前，由於在中美貿易戰下，在「去中化」氛圍下，蘋果為轉移經營風險，必須將iPhone組裝重心分散移往印度、越南。例如美國近日前發布新版實體名單，就有 11 家中國企業被列入名單當中，其中也包含蘋果的主要供應商中國觸控面板公司「歐菲光集團」(O-Film) 南昌子公司，此舉即在動搖消費電子產品供應鏈，並加速中美脫鉤。所以蘋果建立iPhone「非陸製」供應鏈的政策勢在必行，因此一方面施壓緯創賣廠立訊，改由陸廠生產iPhone外，也逼著鴻海、和碩前進印度，擴大「非陸製」iPhone產能。
雖然緯創在印度率先替蘋果興建iPhone組裝廠，但隨著鴻海、和碩都陸續推動赴印度設廠，緯創在蘋果的地位也不像過去重要。所以，緯創選擇此時售廠，或許可在不增加資源投入下，換取「非大陸」蘋果供應鏈的一席之地。
另外，未來緯創應也會淡出蘋果鏈，成為和廣達、緯穎一樣的純伺服器代工廠，此舉反而有利市場調高緯創的評價基礎。
二、紅色供應鏈來襲！
蘋果公司為了壓低代工價格，扶持「紅色供應鏈」的崛起，製造競爭是必然策略。例如，大陸舜宇光學、韓國三星電機 (SEMCO) 將進入蘋果手機供應鏈，亦使鴻海旗下夏普轉投資的日本光學鏡頭廠康達智 (Kantasu)，明年面臨退出供應鏈的壓力。其實這就是電子代工廠的宿命，過去NB進入零成長期後，國際品牌大廠就開始加緊Cost Down，讓台灣的NB代工廠去競標，價低者得，最後就變成 “毛三到四” (毛利率3-4%)。現在，智慧型手機也進入成長高原期，雖然有4G切換5G的規格升級，但總量還是一樣的，多一家代工廠只會打壞價格並分食大餅而已，對台灣代工廠長期來說絕非好事。
立訊集團的創辦人王來春早年在鴻海的蘋果代工廠富士康當了10年作業員，隨後創業做起零組件貿易商，並在2004年收購立訊，並成功複製鴻海集團當年成長模式，從機殼、感測、電池，在一連串收購策略下，目前立訊集團崛起的速度，已超越部分台系代工廠，未來將左右整體iPhone零組件購料與採購的對象。
過往大陸業者最擅長的策略就是打價格戰，立訊買下緯創工廠後，生產規模將大幅擴增，自然就更有本錢打價格戰。若未來中國大陸官方給予立訊各種補助支援，極可能就會在蘋果代工市場掀起價格戰，而直接威脅台灣代工廠。這次立訊收購緯創在大陸組裝工廠，被視為是紅色供應鏈來襲的重要訊號。
目前，雖然目前多數iPhone訂單仍掌握在鴻海、和碩手上，但立訊很可能在未來奪下部份iPhone 12訂單，衝擊台灣代工廠。台系代工廠能否挺得住，將攸關台灣蘋果供應鏈地位。
市場認為，立訊長期終將進入iPhone的組裝事業，由於iPhone新品周期縮短，若立訊進入iPhone組裝行列，可望降低蘋果新機開發與供應的風險。
而立訊積極打入蘋果供應鏈，不只是這次收購緯創大陸廠房，應意圖連同工廠、iPhone訂單全部吃下，也計畫搶攻MacBook、AirPods Pro供應鏈訂單，擴大全球布局，這使得鴻海等傳統蘋果代工廠備感壓力。
其實，未來蘋果iPhone供應鏈將持續洗牌下，不管鴻海與和碩也好，在iPhone代工的地位，短期內都不會被立訊超越，就算立訊接手緯創，也要看代工良率能否追上兩家大咖，否則也會跟緯創一樣吃到毒蘋果（沒法賺錢）。
三、立訊蠶食台系蘋果供應鏈
其實，立訊蠶食台資企業也不是今天才發生，令人震驚的是立訊快速崛起的速度，顯示王來春知人善用，而且是驍勇善戰。她帶領立訊打入蘋果供應鏈鍥而不捨的精神，和這種雖千萬人吾往矣的氣概，台灣電子業很多人恐怕不是她的對手。而郭董已退居二線，所以鴻海要特別小心！
在深圳掛牌的立訊，這兩年股價大幅上升，從2019年初的12.81人民幣漲到61.12人民幣，市值最高達2512億人民幣，約1.06兆台幣，已直逼鴻海的1.2兆台幣。王來春從富士康插件工廠女工搖身蛻變為蘋果供應鏈的重要成員，而且有取鴻海而代之之氣勢。所以，鴻海董事長劉揚偉甚至下令全面提高警戒！
另外，很難想像，2019年營收規模只有鴻海的1/20，獲利也只有鴻海的17.26％，目前僅擁有蘋果無線藍牙耳機和連接器訂單的立訊，在以買廠帶訂單的方式，取得搶進蘋果供應鏈門票後，在大陸深圳交易所掛牌的立訊精密市值即衝高到1.1兆元，遠超過鴻海的1.07兆元，成為全球電子製造代工業（EMS）市值最高的公司。
隨著立訊股價飆漲，今年53歲的王來春身家高達人民幣445億元（約新台幣1,868億元），相較於郭台銘的1,770億元有過之而無不及。而王來春的哥哥王來勝，也是立訊共同創辦人與大股東，兄妹倆的身價合計超過新台幣3,500億元。
蘋果為何會看上營收規模遠不如鴻海，僅幫蘋果代工組裝無線藍牙耳機AirPods的立訊，加入iPhone 12組裝代工之列？關鍵在於台系蘋果供應鏈廠商會做的，很多大陸代工廠商幾乎都會做了，而立訊就是鴻海自己培養出來的頭號競爭者。
若依複製鴻海集團成長模式來看，立訊下一步併吞策略為何？
1、利用併吞策略快速取得訂單
立訊擴大蘋果代工項目的企圖如司馬昭之心，目前立訊幫蘋果代工以穿戴式產品為主，包括TWS的Air Pods及Apple Watch，緯創在昆山的工廠以代工蘋果手機為主，因此立訊將順理成章的接手緯創的手機代工，昆山工廠主要是代工前一代的手機(前一代手機在隔年仍會有銷量)，新款手機則是由鴻海及和碩代工，但是立訊有可能在站穩舊款手機後，逐步找機會擴大到新款手機，與前二家代工廠分食。
2、利用併吞策略快速取得技術
一家公司之所以願意讓外人入主，90%是公司營運已遇到瓶頸，10%是公司經營者要退休但二代不想接手。
我們先看看立訊之前入股的宣德及美律表現如何?
宣德在2012年之前是一家載浮載沈的連接器廠，營收連續二、三年負成長，正好遇上立訊想擴大營運，於是促成了合作，入股25.1%，宣德的營收在一年之後開始進入成長期，表示立訊的灌單開始發揮效用，中間一年的空白期應是在調整生產技術及營運組織，等到調整好，營運就開始起飛了，股價在大戶增持之下，也由入股時的10元漲到40元。
而2015年美律在手機的免持聽筒上出現連續性的衰退，主要是大陸的新競爭者壯大起來，開始分食原來的訂單，正好立訊需要聲學技術來切入Air Pods，二者一拍即合，立訊入股了美律25.4%，因為美律本身就有技術，所以這次灌單比較快，半年之後美律營收就開始上揚，股價在大戶增持之下，也由不到50元上漲到218元。
不過二家公司的榮景各維持了1.5年及1年，然後灌單效應就開始趨緩，營收成長力道及毛利率的改善有天花板效應，股價也各自沈寂了二年的時間，一直到去年宣德才又重新上漲，近期有再創新高，不過美律就沒那麼好，2018年之後一直只在大區間內震盪，二者開始出現分歧，因此立訊入主的效應在前面1-1.5年有效，後面就要看情形了。
3、利用併吞策略取得經濟規模來降低成本
立訊既然買下了手機組裝廠，未來就需要整合各式的手機零組件來降低成本，若去做OLED螢幕或晶片都不切實際，也非立訊的強項，但若從鋁鎂合金(或是不鏽鋼)機殼下手，則是一個營收夠大，且跟原來的沖壓或模鑄件有些類似工法。
而鴻海集團是主要競爭者，短期之內不太可能合作，所以枱面上能排的上名的就是獨立廠可成，以及和碩集團中營運一直沒有起色的鎧勝，巿場上對二家都有傳聞，考量蘋果的分散供應商策略，二選一的可能性較大。
(1)可成的可能性略小
可成近二年受到蘋果硬體產品已進入高原期的限制，毛利率逐年下滑，雖然也符合上述讓外人入股的條件，但可成帳上現金1100億以上，若想嚐試新的事業或者新的應用巿場(目前主要是往車用及醫療)，並不缺錢。
短期之內蘋果的機殼雖然如雞肋食之無味，但若欲棄之也過早，在新事業做出成績之前，尚能維持公司的營收規模及絕對獲利數字，畢竟目前毛利率雖然遠不如幾年前的5成，但仍有24%，規模經濟夠大時，還是能擠出利潤。公司在自由現金流上也沒有問題，因此理論上被立訊入股的可能性較低。如上所述，可成口袋深，並沒有急迫性需求，不需要壓低姿態求售，所以達成交易的可能性應也不會過半，除非價格十分誘人。
(2)鎧勝的機率不小
鎧勝雖然是和碩集團的一員，但多年來營運載浮載沈，並沒有太受惠於和碩的代工單，目前主要以NB及iPad機殼為主要動能，尤其今年居家遠距需求，讓上述二項產品熱賣，出現一波小高潮，近期股價可待價而沽。
尤其鎧勝單季營收高點在2015年Q4就出現了，之後逐年下滑，在2018年之後，單季的營益率一半以上的季度都是負數，代表本業是虧損居多，自由現金流也常是負數，代表賺的錢付股息跟投資就不夠用了，因此擴大營運，達到規模經濟以降低成本，是鎧勝的改善之道，若未來同時作為和碩及立訊的機殼廠，就可以提升生產規模，對母公司和碩、新代工廠立訊、規模經濟不足的鎧勝及大客戶蘋果，算是4贏的局面 (不過對和碩其實是短多長空)。
四、從投資角度，如何押注紅色供應鏈?
代工大廠緯創日前剛公告，將出售旗下昆山、江蘇子公司給大陸立訊集團，交易對價金額暫定為人民幣 33 億元 (約新台幣 138 億元)；而緯創7月22日又重訊公告，透過旗下大陸四家子公司取得大陸立訊精密人民幣約 30 億元 (約新台幣 126 億元) 有價證券，持股比達 0.81%，緯創表示，目的是財務投資及加深雙方策略合作夥伴關係。
無獨有偶，台系第二大代工大廠和碩7月22日也公告，旗下上海昌碩在2020年陸續加碼對大陸立訊精密持股，累計昌碩共持有立訊約 3984 萬股，持股比例增至 0.57%，和碩表示，僅是財務性投資。不過，近期市場頻傳立訊計畫收購台灣機殼廠，包含鎧勝 – KY 與可成等都被點名，對此鎧勝日前發布重訊澄清，僅是市場謠言，不過和碩2019年底才出脫立訊持股，此時又買回，動機引起市場議論。
總之，紅色供應鏈的崛起趨勢很明確，如同在1990年代的台灣電子股業。而台系蘋果供應鏈與紅色供應鏈之間的愛恨情仇是應競爭(一寸山河一寸血)、抑或合作(一笑泯恩仇)，未來將考驗台商經營者的智慧?
而投資人更應關心的是，未來十年紅色供應鏈的崛起趨勢是很明確，投資人如果想搭大陸資本市場大成長的便車，去押注紅色供應鏈崛起的資本利得是最佳捷徑。如此，除了複委託方式，尚有何其它投資管道?
基於分散投資風險考量，筆者建議可分散投資A股主題式ETF。投資人可利用此次洪災過後的重建商機、利用中美超限戰後的經濟轉型商機，逢低買入A股的新經濟、新基建主題式ETF長線持有，十年後必有豐碩報酬。例如：
（1）群益深証中小(00643 )：其最大成份股為立訊、比亞迪、海康威視、歌爾股份、洋河股份等。
（2）國泰中國A50(00636 )：其最大成份股為金融、地產等。
（3）中信中國50 (00752)：其最大成份股為騰訊、阿里巴巴、中國建設銀行、中國移動、百度、中國平安保險等。
（4）FH中國5G通信(00877)：最大成份股為立訊、中興電信、三安光電、兆易創新、歌爾股份、紫光股份等。
（5）元大滬深正2(00637L)：主要投資標的為中國A50期貨，因為漲跌皆是兩倍，在高低點的選擇就相對需要謹慎，只適合多頭主升段選用。
微信 
留言列表（134条）
Nice post. I used to be checking continuously this blog and I am inspired! Very useful information particularly the final phase 🙂 I maintain such info a lot. I used to be seeking this particular info for a long timelong time. Thank you and good luck.
I like the valuable information you provide in your articles. I will bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently. I am quite certain I will learn plenty of new stuff right here! Good luck for the next!
What’s up, I want to subscribe for this weblog to take most recent updates, so where can i do it please help.
Hi there mates, good piece of writing and good arguments commented here, I am truly enjoying by these.
Hi to all, how is everything, I think every one is getting more from this website, and your views are good designed for new viewers.
I read this article fully regarding the comparison of latest and previous technologies, it’s remarkable article.
It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I have read this post and if I could I want to suggest you few interesting things or advice. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article. I want to read more things about it!
Hi! I’ve been following your weblog for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from New Caney Tx! Just wanted to tell you keep up the fantastic job!
Hi there, yeah this post is really pleasant and I have learned lot of things from it concerning blogging. thanks.
I have been surfing online more than three hours lately, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me. In my opinion, if all site owners and bloggers made just right content as you did, the net shall be much more useful than ever before.
Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and all. Nevertheless think of if you added some great graphics or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and clips, this website could undeniably be one of the most beneficial in its niche. Amazing blog!
You can definitely see your enthusiasm in the article you write. The arena hopes for more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to mention how they believe. All the time go after your heart.
Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
This web site definitely has all of the info I wanted about this subject and didn’t know who to ask.
Hi there, I log on to your new stuff regularly. Your writing style is awesome, keep doing what you’re doing!
Выберите Лаки Джет для быстрого азартного развлечения или стратегического заработка через официальный сайт lucky jet 1 win.
Ahaa, its nice discussion concerning this post here at this website, I have read all that, so now me also commenting here.
I really like your writing style, wonderful information, appreciate it for posting : D.
Hi to all, how is everything, I think every one is getting more from this website, and your views are pleasant for new users.
Saved as a favorite, I really like your web site!
If you desire to get much from this piece of writing then you have to apply such techniques to your won website.
Howdy terrific blog! Does running a blog similar to this take a massive amount work? I have no expertise in computer programming but I was hoping to start my own blog soon. Anyways, if you have any recommendations or tips for new blog owners please share. I know this is off topic nevertheless I just had to ask. Appreciate it!
What’s Happening i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I have found It positively helpful and it has helped me out loads. I hope to give a contribution & aid other customers like its helped me. Great job.
It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I have read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you few interesting things or advice. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article. I want to read more things about it!
Hey this is kinda of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding skills so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!
I couldn’t resist commenting. Perfectly written!
I constantly emailed this website post page to all my associates, as if like to read it then my friends will too.
I do consider all the concepts you have presented for your post. They are very convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are too brief for newbies. May just you please prolong them a bit from next time? Thank you for the post.
Heya i’m for the primary time here. I came across this board and I find It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to provide something back and help others like you helped me.
We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your site provided us with valuable information to work on. You have done an impressive job and our whole community will be grateful to you.
Nice post. I used to be checking continuously this blog and I am inspired! Very useful information particularly the remaining part 🙂 I maintain such info a lot. I used to be seeking this particular info for a long timelong time. Thank you and good luck.
I really like what you guys are up too. This type of clever work and coverage! Keep up the very good works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to blogroll.
Greetings! Very helpful advice within this article! It is the little changes that produce the largest changes. Thanks for sharing!
Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic however I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Terrific blog by the way!
Thank you for another great article. Where else may just anyone get that kind of information in such a perfect method of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I am at the look for such information.
Ощутите разницу с профессиональной штукатуркой механизированная от mehanizirovannaya-shtukaturka-moscow.ru. Процесс быстрый и чистый.
Hey there, You have performed a fantastic job. I will definitely digg it and for my part recommend to my friends. I am sure they will be benefited from this site.
I have been surfing online more than three hours these days, yet I never found any fascinating article like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me. Personally, if all website owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the net will be much more useful than ever before.
I enjoy what you guys are up too. Such clever work and coverage! Keep up the terrific works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to our blogroll.
Hi there this is kinda of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding know-how so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!
Saved as a favorite, I really like your web site!
We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your site provided us with helpful information to work on. You have performed an impressive activity and our whole group can be grateful to you.
Сайт mehanizirovannaya-shtukaturka-moscow.ru с радостью предлагает услуги машинной штукатурки. Не упустите свой шанс на революционные изменения в области ремонтных работ.
Thanks for finally writing about > %blog_title% < Liked it!
строительное снабжение москва
Хотите получить идеально ровный пол без лишних затрат? Обратитесь к профессионалам на сайте styazhka-pola24.ru! Мы предоставляем услуги по стяжке пола м2 по доступной стоимости, а также устройству стяжки пола под ключ в Москве и области.
I all the time emailed this weblog post page to all my friends, because if like to read it next my friends will too.
Greetings! Very helpful advice within this article! It is the little changes which will make the largest changes. Thanks for sharing!
Actually no matter if someone doesn’t know then its up to other users that they will help, so here it occurs.
My spouse and I stumbled over here different page and thought I might check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you. Look forward to looking over your web page again.