害怕錯過開啟邪惡第五波
2home.co 楊惟婷
楔子、春風又煞江南岸
「在別人恐懼時，你要貪婪；在別人貪婪時，你要懂得恐懼。」這是股神巴菲特的名言。
誠如巴菲特所言，在股海中征戰，只有戰勝內心的貪婪與恐懼，才能成為股市大贏家。
一、邪惡第五波的考驗
過去數年，每逢股市修正，總有人疾呼空頭即將到來……。
但由於各國央行不斷QE，讓市場錢滿為患，所以即使所有基本面分析指標不斷示警，各國股市仍看回不回，亦即仗勢QE不止、資金行情水漲船高、強渡關山、一波攻頂。
若依艾略特波浪理論來看，它將每個股市週期分為多頭與空頭，前者由五波構成，後者由三波組成。以多頭來說，通常五波上漲為主趨勢，第一波是初升段，第三波是主升段，第五波是末升段。其中，多頭最後一波常被戲稱為邪惡第五波，因為如果不能即時下車，恐讓先前漲幅付之一炬。
一般來說，初升段的特癥就是沒人相信、人人喊賣，通常會配合量價背離，地就是股價漲成交量卻變小，權值股不再破底，但是漲勢蹣跚，進三退二，讓大家常以為要破低點，卻每次都沒破，而且低點一次比一次墊高。
而主升段的特癥是盤面上所有股票都會漲，從權值股到小股都會飆，而不一定每天漲停，但是漲不停。凡遇修正都是小修正，甚至盤中洗盤換手就交待過去。檯面上出現漲倍股。
另外，末升段又叫第五波，特癥是權值股不再創新高、小股狂飆、類股輪動快速、融資爆增、個股常出現開高走低爆量。進入邪惡第五波，基本面選股派不上用場。
但為什麼說第五波是邪惡的？
1、就是因為沒人知道第五波會漲到哪裡，它可能不斷出現延長波、再延伸，大盤明明是處在相對危險的高點，但是也許再往上漲個一千點也說不定，你賣了就漲、每天漲不停。
2、且邪惡第5波之所以邪惡，是它的複雜性更較其他上升波有過之而無不及，在這個波動裡，投機與投資並存，績優的股票可能續漲，投機的股票則是滾量上去，
3、第5波中有很多各自矛盾的現象，即市場熱度雖高，但創新高股、做頭股並存，成交量未必會增加，量價背離反而常常出現，最大特色是個股差異很大，尤其小股票則走得又快又猛、甚至可能每天漲停，漲到你懷疑人生、但一旦受不了去追就是要掛點的時候，十分邪惡。
例如，最近台股盤勢來到17000點，但仍每天漲、利多不斷，致放空和空手朋友的怨念加起來已經足以開拍咒怨第五集了，或許，這就是江湖傳說中的邪惡第五波。目前，市場焦點都在會不會站上17000點？17000點上能站多久？由於這一波指數已累積相當的漲幅，就波浪來看，似有進入第5波的跡象，尤其若屬邪惡第5波又該怎麼操作？
在此值得一提，波浪理論最大的迷思是，它可以重新調整。例如，如果這波多頭持續延伸，目前也有可能重新定義為第三波。此外，因每個人選擇的時間與角度不同，也有不同波浪的認定。因此，就此判定熊市何時降臨，恐人云亦云。
所以，除非是積極型股民，此處還可以設好停損去追高，或許可以再賺個幾十啪。但若未善設停損去追高，或許也可以賠個幾十啪。因此，對保守型股民來說，吾人建議你等到下次修正到好價位再進場會比較好，才是明哲保身。
重要的提醒：如果你沒有把握或是只是單純看不順眼的話，不要在末升段去放空，十分危險，盤勢就算要跌、也會把空單都軋死才跌，不要不信邪。
二、害怕錯過 (FOMO) 打開潘朵拉邪惡第五波
你聽過「害怕錯過」焦慮症（FOMO現象）嗎？
FOMO現象（Fear of Missing Out, FOMO），通常指的是害怕會錯過社交媒體上發生的事情，例如，活動和八卦（如你的朋友圈裡經常充斥著你吃不到的美食，去不了的美景，趕不及的party和促銷季，從而感覺自己的生活大不如人家），從而產生焦慮和煩惱… ，現在因為繁忙的工作安排，巨大的生活壓力，此現象越來越普遍了。
而在這個金錢充斥的年代，投資人也開始害怕錯過行情，從而產生焦慮和煩惱的情緒、壓力！尤其，近年來股市持續資金行情漲潮，投資人也出現害怕錯過行情( FOMO)的焦慮和煩惱而瘋狂追高，這對市場長期而言並不是個健康現象。
其實，「害怕錯過行情」，用另一個詞彙來形容就是「貪婪」。當前市場中，這種「貪婪」情緒絕對存在。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Paul Krugman表示，目前市場處於狂熱（mania）之中，主要是受到投資者「害怕錯過（Fear of Missing Out, FOMO）」的情緒所致。
目前全球股市升勢不止，根源於Fed的一波波貨幣寬鬆政策。
但當「害怕錯過」成為推升股市的重要因素，這不是一個好的癥兆。因為，「害怕錯失 (fear of missing out)」即是「想一夕致富的貪婪」。因全球政府開始逐步放鬆封城、復工，疫情帶來的限制正在減少，這種前景激發了投資人壓抑後的過度樂觀情緒，都想押注「一夕致富」。
但過度樂觀的結果，往往會導致過度槓桿操作，接著亢龍有悔。因為，一旦升勢結束，投資人可能過度暴露於「高度槓桿的下行風險」中，而受到傷害。
三、融資餘額再創新高，暗示散戶「害怕錯過」蜂湧進場
近期台股屢屢出現融資餘額創高現象，4/9融資餘額已來到2401億元，顯示散戶終於按奈不住、蜂湧進場，因為散戶相信股市仍有QE強勁的資金浪潮作為後盾。「害怕錯過」(FOMO) 乃成為押注「一夕致富」的動力，投資人都想在債券殖利率偏低之際，投資股票大撈一筆。
根據美國金融監管局 (FINRA) 公布的最新數據顯示，美股的融資餘額 (margin debt) 也正以破紀錄的速度上升。例如截至2021年2月底，投資人在他們的投資組合中借入創新紀錄的8140億美元，較2020年同期暴增49%，也是自2007年以來最快增速，這一發展也格外令人擔心。
回顧在2000年及2008年股市的動盪時期，融資餘額的高點都先於股市崩跌出現。這一情況很容易理解，因融資可以讓投資人進行更多投資，然而一旦抵押物的價值降至一定的水準以下，他們則會面臨保證金追繳，需要投入更多的資金，或是被迫賣股求現，這可能會加大股市的跌勢。亦即，融資餘額助長了牛市，也加劇了熊市，在某種程度上造就了「非理性繁榮」。
另美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 也警告，短線投機性交易總是有風險，如果對金融産品和市場不熟悉，又過度使用槓桿，最終很有可能釀成災難。
四、期貨交易員押注比特幣上漲，暗示交易員「害怕錯過」高槓桿押注
芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 3/30 日公布，將推出新的比特幣衍生產品，幫助投資者可以用更小單位交易，新產品仍待監管單位批准。
芝商所預計於5月3日推出的新產品，名為微型比特幣期貨 (Micro Bitcoin)。
據 CoinTelegraph 報導，這一期貨合約每口價值為 0.1BTC，遠低於目前芝商所每口規模5枚比特幣的標準比特幣期貨。
對於新的期貨選擇，芝商所全球股票指數和另類投資產品主管 Tim McCourt 表示，微型比特幣期貨的推出，直接回應了眾多客戶對小型合約的需求，新產品將為參與者提供更多選擇，提高他們的交易精準度，幫助他們以透明、有效的方式，交易受監管的比特幣期貨。故這一消息被視為利多，激勵比特幣價格繼續逼近6萬美元。
再依《Zero Hedge》指出，由近期期貨押注狀況，交易員開始在看漲期權建立更大的部位，並押注在4月底前，比特幣價格將超過8萬美元，超前進行了布局。
但根據數據聚合網站Skew表示，比特幣期權交易者可能有點過於樂觀。
依此平台分析，比特幣屆時達到8萬美元的可能性僅6.19%，突破10萬美元的機率僅 2.15%。
五、Archegos事件，暗示投資機構也「害怕錯過」all-in了
3/26日前老虎基金操盤手Bill Hwang主導的家族基金Archegos Capital未能履行追加的保證金，爆發「爆倉事件」，遭強制清出多家中概股與美媒體股票，價值高達200億美元，連帶造成瑞信、野村證券、高盛與摩根士丹利等銀行受波及，此事件造成總規模高達100億美元的鉅額交易損失。
此「爆倉事件」，也造成「華爾街金童」美籍韓裔操盤人Bill Hwang（身價曾高達300億美元），在兩天內輸光全部身家200億美元。
事件起因Bill Hwang利用高槓桿借來的巨資，用衍生工具做五倍的槓桿價差交易，重押幾檔美國上市的中概股，賭股價上漲，卻沒想到股價被殺個措手不及，讓他操盤的基金被清算、一夕破產，200億美元財富兩天內蒸發。這是現代金融史上最引人注目的破產案例：沒有一個人可以如此迅速虧掉這麼多錢。
由於股價被殺個措手不及，讓他無力追繳保證金，高盛、摩根士丹利等投資銀行乃被迫認賠出清200億美元的股票部位，使股價大跌。也使Hwang的金主瑞信大虧47億美元，日本野村虧損約20億美元。
此Archegos爆倉事件，留給投資人五個警惕：
1、首先是勿過度槓桿操作。
過多使用負債往往帶來風暴。槓桿可以讓千萬富翁變成億萬富翁，也可以變成窮人，根據國際清算銀行 (BIS) 預估，美國民間部門信貸已經超過國內生產毛額 (GDP) 的160%，是2008年金融危機以來首見。
愈多的負債代表借貸者的應變能力愈弱。尤其，美國企業債務在2020年夏天已經達到相當於GDP的84% 新高水準，限制了企業面臨經濟衝擊或再融資壓力的能力。以上金額還沒有把避險基金的借貸算進去。
2、第二是高股價是最大利空。
有些人可能以為高股價是好事，但放款者通常遇到景氣不好就會縮手，股價若從高點下跌，可能帶來信貸緊縮的痛苦。
例如1998 年的長期資本管理公司 (LTCM) 倒閉，使許多銀行面臨破產威脅，當時許多避險基金都擠進相同策略，並被同樣的市場意外波動所淘汰。
眼前，雖然只是單一基金斷頭事件，但風險在於，避險基金都押注通膨和高投機科技股。
3、擁擠的倉位會互相踩踏。
市場看好「通貨再膨脹」交易，有志一同押注美國經濟復甦將帶動公債殖利率上升、股票上漲。但一旦中間出了任何差錯，很多人會來不及應變。
尤其，避險基金重押微軟、蘋果和風險更高的特殊目的收購公司 (SPAC)。
4、衍生性商品有隱藏潛在風險的貓膩。
銀行被 Archegos 吸引的原因之一，是該基金使用「總報酬交換合約」(totalreturn swap) 建立對 Viacom等股票的部位，而非利用貸款直接買進股票。由於美國的揭露機制設計不完善，Archegos 掩蓋了在總報酬交換合約的龐大投資部位，使銀行無法得知其他債務。
5、華爾街正放任CFD等高槓桿操作，若押錯方向則全市場恐爆系統風險。
在Archegos爆倉事件逐步明朗之後，人們了解到Archegos 所用的槓桿大部分為野村控股和瑞信集團等銀行提供，其透過互換或所謂的差價合約 (Contract For Difference，簡稱 CFD) 提供的。
雖然此次爆倉事件雖避開了系統性災難，但這次爆雷卻凸顯了槓桿一旦出錯，可能引發的嚴重後果。
因為CFD 這種金融衍生工具，是買家和賣家之間的一種合約，不涉及標的資產的交換，而是交易合約價和結算價之間的差額。意味着，Archegos 可以在不實際購買這些公司股票下，建立大量部位。若有實際買入的股票，就會掛在投資銀行的資產負債表中。
股票經紀銀行之所以掉以輕心，是因為他們相信，必要時可以拋售股票自保。但他們沒有警覺到，要是所有人都不得不做這樣的拋售時，所要求的抵押品可能完全不足以負擔。
隨著美股飆漲至新高，同樣地，在券商也存在一個趨勢令人擔憂，即美股的融資餘額 (margin debt) 也正以破紀錄的速度激增，2月底達到8140億美元的歷史新高。人們總是常識性地看一眼，然後就認定保證金債務的水準是正常的，而忽視警告信號。但是，這是自1931年以來最大的增幅之一。
過去幾年由於處於牛市中，流動性充裕，很容易讓人變得過度自信，而投資人在「害怕錯過行情」的投機狂熱情緒下，更容易放鬆警惕、進行高槓桿的期權交易。這種債務的過度槓桿和持續押注，對未來而言已經成為一個幽靈咒怨。
六、市場「融漲」，何時亢龍有悔？
1、空頭翻多叫「融漲」
想想美國前方的無數挑戰，如疫情仍未止穩、中美兩國對抗，更不用說拜登提高企業稅會企業獲利衰退可能引發的大震撼，但美股依然故我，千山我獨行。
就算外界屢屢警告，「小心有熊出沒」，各國股市也依然持續攀升，並屢創歷史新高。更有分析師說，此即「融漲」現象。那何謂「融漲」？
由於市場相信美國經濟將強勁回升，讓多頭投資者的投資信心更凝聚。
另外，許多先前持懷疑態度的投資者也持續翻多，由於「害怕錯過行情」，加入這波行情時更全力押注，為強勁的漲勢繼續提供動力。
所以「融漲」現象即反映市場投資人處於「極度貪婪」的投資心態。這批投資人湧進股市，很大程度上只是因為看到股市不斷在上漲，只是不想錯過上漲機會，而非市場基本面已改善，如此，讓市場出現資產價格意外急遽上漲的現象，就稱作「融漲」。
所以，在股市推入「融漲」區域之後，反而是該令人恐懼的事。因為，股市不可能永遠漲不停，股市大漲後，最後仍是要接受基本面考驗。
這種強勁漲勢，一旦市場或全球經濟再面臨新衝擊，市場會突然大幅下挫。而加大看漲押注的投資者，也會為此類押注付出慘痛代價。
2、這不是狂熱，什麼才叫狂熱？
雖然資金流仍持續推動股市走高，但由美國銀行 (BofA) 提供數據顯示，受惠於超寬鬆貨幣政策和大規模財政刺激，全球股市狂熱蔓延不止。過去5個月以來，流入股票基金的資金規模已達近5,700億美元，一舉突破過去12年以來的總和，這不是狂熱，什麼才叫狂熱？
而且股市估值又處於1990年代末期網路泡沫以來的最高水平，標普500指數的預估本益比也接近22倍，故著實令人擔憂。
3、比起通膨，拜登加稅更令人戰慄
依RBC資本市場3月底進行的調查顯示，53% 投資人認為，拜登政府加稅計畫在未來四年將帶來「負面或相當負面」的影響，比率從2020年12月的僅21% 大幅上升。
RBC資本市場說，美股投資人最擔心的是貨幣政策，接下來是稅率和稅賦政策，再來才是通膨，拜登政策下的美股展望現在轉為偏悲觀一些。
從 1.9 兆美元紓困案到健全基礎建設計畫，拜登的財政刺激幫助美股衝上歷史新高，但隨著基建計畫細節浮現、加稅可能性提高，投資人樂觀情緒正下降。
稅務專家分析，如果拜登政府加稅，科技業、製藥業將首當其衝，這兩個是標普500指數最大類股。
更令人擔憂的因素之一，是本波股市上漲很大一部分集中在科技巨頭，如特斯拉、蘋果、亞馬遜、Alphabet和Facebook等科技股，它們是拜登提高企業稅的風暴中心。
高盛策略師則 3 月推估，如果拜登政府最初的加稅計畫完全付諸實行，2022年標普500成分股企業的獲利成長將減損多達9%。
白宮除了打算把企業稅率從21%提高到28%，還規劃調高美國企業海外所得稅率。美國財長葉倫表示，加稅計畫能在未來10多年收回美企在海外逾2兆美元的獲利，其中終結獎勵措施可使國庫進帳約7000億美元。
亦即，企業稅率將把錢，由企業的左口袋，轉移到拜登政府的右口袋，即便稅率最終設定為25%，只要當企業稅和個人稅率調高，股市通常不會有好的表現。尤其，美股本益比已經超過22倍，達到史上相對高的水準。
雖然，未來的財政刺激也能推升企業獲利，但有時間遞延。
4、葉倫的稅改計畫，堪比川普貿易戰
如果你期望在川普時代關稅戰和推特外交的大戲落幕後，拜登政府會在貿易問題上回歸正常，那麼美國財政部長葉倫可能有不同的想法。
葉倫4/5 日宣布期望達成全球最低公司稅率，這對「國際經濟秩序」造成的衝擊，幾乎可以與川普決定對中國發動貿易戰相提並論。
現代「全球化」企業獲利奠基在二個面向：
a、在損益表的上半部分，通過將製造業轉移到中國和勞動力成本較低的其他新興經濟體，企業削減了營運支出。
b、在損益表的下半部分，他們對稅項費用採取了同樣的做法，將利潤轉移到百慕大、英屬維爾京群島、開曼群島、愛爾蘭、荷蘭、盧森堡、新加坡和瑞士等低稅率地區。
現代跨國公司的盈利能力有很大一部分依賴於這兩項行動，例如，愛爾蘭最大的四家跨國公司分別是蘋果、Google 母公司 Alphabet、Facebook 和微軟在當地的子公司。如此，這對跨國公司利潤產生了重大助力。
事實上，愛爾蘭的稅率僅為12.5%，而開曼群島和英屬維爾京群島等地區根本不徵收企業利潤稅，故根據經合組織 (OECD) 2020年的一項研究，減少此類節稅行為的改革措施可給各國帶來每年約1000億美元的效益，其他組織估計的數字還要高得更多。
葉倫之所以力倡全球最低企業稅，可能是為了防止美企因加稅政策大舉外逃。葉倫嘗試解決這個問題是正確的，但要想取得進展，必須要全球政府採取集體行動。
雖然德國財政部長 Olaf Scholz 4/6 日表態支持葉倫的提議，稱上述提案為一大突破。但同時也補充道，協議必須包含對科技巨頭的跨境業務進行課數位稅。
七、跋尾——在貪婪與恐懼中跳舞
「在別人恐懼時，你要貪婪；在別人貪婪時，你要懂得恐懼。」這是股神巴菲特的名言。誠如巴菲特所言，在股海中征戰，只有戰勝內心的貪婪與恐懼，才能成為股市贏家。
因目前仍然錢滿為患、技術型態尚未轉空、市場籌碼仍穩定，所以波浪邪惡第五波何時結束？多頭派對何時結束？先不必過度臆測，但善設停損、停利。
從技術面來看，月線、季線與年線目前維持多頭排列，尚未破壞多頭格局，但已進入過熱區。因此，未來若股市仍回檔修正、但成交量未失控，讓乖離率適度回調，則可視為良性修正，才有機會展開下波景氣行情。反之，一旦市場出現爆量恐慌性賣壓、籌碼凌亂，則市場將經歷一段籌碼沈澱修正期。
再把時間拉到從前，你會發現許多有趣的現象，比如：
2000年發生網路泡沫化；2008年有次級房貸的問題；2020年1月份發生新冠疫情事件。
每隔10年就發生的修正相仿，好像換湯不換藥，那2021年波浪世紀大轉折是否仍有著歷史的規律？
由於QE扭曲10年景氣循環進程，但仍要小心邪惡第5波突然中挫，不要不信邪。未來值得注意的是通膨走勢是否讓10年公債殖利率挑戰2％，導致央行提早緊縮貨幣政策，進而影響投資人信心？或是，拜登政府的加稅計畫完全付諸實行？此時，又將上演一場貪婪與恐懼的博弈。
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