美國債務上限「陽謀」？
2home.co 楊惟婷
一匹披上袈裟（人權披風）的狼，是不是還是一匹狼？
在王土上、它是唯一的王，印鈔掠奪資源是它、壟斷疫苗是它、販賣軍火是它…，只有它制定的遊戲規則才是王法。脫王者斬，威盛、宏達電者斬，奇美、友達者斬，華為們斬，連台積電也難幸免於難。
一、在一個「以債養債」的「美元殖民」世界
在槍桿子出王權的世界，海珊、格達費是拿來祭旗的，說穿了，擁石油懷璧其罪，去石油美元更是唯一死罪，而「人民幣國際化」只是脫王者斬的續集。
1、全球債務總額近300兆美元，已占全球GDP的360%
在多年的極低利率下，全球經濟體創紀錄的債務節節升高。根據國際金融研究所 (IIF) 公布的最新數據顯示，全球2021年第二季債務總額升至近300兆美元，較疫情前水準高出36兆美元，創下歷史新高，也相當於全球GDP的360%。
尤其，債務水準的上升在新興市場中最為明顯（貧者愈貧），第二季的債務總額較上一季增加了3.5 兆美元，達到近92兆美元。
另外，在2021年前6個月，全球家庭債務增加了1.5兆美元，達到55兆美元。
IIF表示：「家庭債務的增加與幾乎與房價上漲是一致的。」
全球債務總額已占全球GDP的360%，是不是要當下地球人不吃不喝3.6年才還得了這一筆債，或父債子還？
2、美國國債已經接近30兆美元大關，誰來買單？
另外，美國國債現在已經接近30兆美元大關，達到美國經濟總量（23兆）130%以上，而且還持續增加（寅吃卯糧）。
根據IMF的預測，2025年美國債務總額將達到近36兆美元（占GDP的136%），而金融危機爆發前美國的債務率只有64%，金融史上只有在戰爭時期才出現過債務總量增速如此之快的情況。這隱寓什麼？
從這種以債養債的背景來看，各國央行只要提高利率，很容易就引發下一次嚴重的信貸或金融危機。不升息，又如何對抗通膨風暴？
二、美國「債務上限」問題又再演一次了
雖然柯林頓、歐巴馬與川普政權皆經歷過美國債務上限問題的考驗：
例如2011年發生首次債務餘額超過國家債務發行上限問題，當時民主黨和共和黨是否應該透過加稅、削減支出、提高債限展開激辯，在恢復舉債上限短短幾間內，就因為付不出某些救濟金，美國的主權債信評等就被信評機構標準普爾 (S&P) 摘除最高的3A 評等，造成股市股票投資人拋售持股，資本市場全面震盪不安；最後也迫使政府運作中止，但仍是有驚無險、安然度過危機。
1、美國寅吃卯糧，已回不去了
近期拜登的「新基建」財政支出，由高達6兆美元預算被砍到剩1兆美元，即是因為在野黨認為，政府債務超標問題越來越嚴重，因此，要在此項財政支出政策上，認真嚴格把守，以免引爆債務違約危機、嚴重影響國家財政。
但美國財長葉倫說，如果國會近期不通過財政部再舉債籌錢，將使美國再發生債務違約，那將是一場大災難！此將影響美國工人就業機會，使得美國經濟復甦之路途更加艱難。
而評級機構穆迪首席經濟學家 Mark Zandi也警告，如果美國未能處理舉債上限問題，造成債務違約，將對經濟造成災難性打擊，美股可能跌掉近三分之一。
畢竟政府部門暫時停止呼吸時，會中斷很多平日認為理所當然的生活服務；所以最後還是會經過政治協商後通過。但在這些過程折騰中，對美國與全球金融市場活動還是存在風險。
因為美國國債是全球資本市場每天交易量最大的有價證券，且由美國政府背書；而由於背後有美政府保障背書，因此持有美國國債相當持有美元貨幣。所以若萬一違約倒債，那可不只是一場金融風暴而已！
弔詭的是，目前美債仍是全球信用等級最好、有價證券流通程度最佳的有價證券；相對日本目前公債餘額佔GDP比率214% 左右，美國政府截至2021年8月為止，債務餘額達30兆美元（占GDP的130%），那只是小事；美國政府的雙赤字(貿易與預算赤字)，長年以來已經成為宿疾，成為全球各大國家不得不接受的原罪。若聽聞美國債又要破表，各國壽險巨擘仍趨之若鶩，反而會備妥資金，準備在該項利空襲擊時，去大量買進美國國債；最好是美債信用評等，也再被大砍一次、這樣才有較便宜價格可進場買進。
2、今夜，美債誰來買單？
目前全球持有美債最多的國家為日本，根據 2020年6月統計資料顯示，日本持有美國國債為1.2717兆美元、排名第一；而大陸持有餘額為1.078兆美元、排名第二。
其實，日本持有部位並未大幅增加，反而是中國在2020上半年，顯著減持了至少約 2,000 多億美元美國公債。近期大陸又連續三個月減持美債，持有量降至1.078兆美元，目前大陸仍位居美債第二大海外持有國。
這從財務操作觀點，是正確債券操作買賣行為。因為Fed執行無限量QE、市場利率大跌，而債券因為有固定利率的標定，價格大幅上揚；這當然是獲利了結大好機會。
但日本為何會變成持有美債最多的老大？
因為日本在2019年底到2020年初，陸續小幅加碼美國國債，而此積極操作，就被拱上最大債主寶座。但對日本來講，美國這樣以債養債運轉財政，總有一天還是要付出代價；但萬一QE 的刺激已麻木，那Fed可能就得運用負利率政策？那時美國國債價格不就會更高？….日本央行可能這樣想。
但在正常與理性的情勢下，這是不可能的。如果連美國的貨幣政策都走到這個地步，那不僅代表QE已經失去魔力，還隱含美國經濟復甦之路嚴重受阻。而這肯定是全球風險？
三、美國再一次面臨政府關門或債務違約風險
上次美國國會最後設定的債務上限為28.4兆美元，目前債務規模近30兆美元，若國會此次未能就政府提高舉債上限達成共識，屆時可能導致美國政府關閉，或美債債務違約。
美國國會預算辦公室 (CBO) 表示，除非國會提高舉債上限或延後期限，否則美國 10、11月將面臨政府關門或債務違約的風險，屆時美國政府將無法全額履行義務，將會延後支付政府活動的款項，或拖欠債務。
為避免美國政府機構停擺，美國參議院和眾議院9/30日緊急通過臨時開支法案，拜登隨後簽署立法，讓聯邦政府將得以再維持運作2個月(直到12 /3日)。
但另一場危機即將來臨，國會仍需要在10 /18日之前提高或暫停債務上限，以防止可能出現的美國債務違約。
眾議院和參議院民主黨領袖也希望秋季透過預算協調程序通過3.5兆美元人文社福預算案，以及兩黨敲定的1兆美元大基建計畫。
但參議院共和黨領袖麥康奈爾表示，鑒於民主黨目前正在推動數兆美元的基建法案，共和黨成員不太可能支持民主黨提高舉債上限。他建議民主黨藉由和解程序通過基建案，以增加債務限額。
目前為止，民主黨已拒絕共和黨領袖麥康奈爾同意透過預算和解程序通過債務限額案的提議，因為民主黨堅定認為，兩黨應共同努力提高舉債上限。
儘管民主黨現階段勉強控制參、眾兩院，但要提高舉債上限仍有困難，倘若民主黨再度使用和解程序強行通過，這有可能影響2022年11月期中選舉民主黨是否能繼續控制國會。
若10/18日未能提高或暫停舉債上限，可能重演2011年、2013年、2018年美國政府關閉的事件。另若不提高舉債上限，未來政府將只能透過增加稅收或刪減政府支出因應，而兩者都不利於經濟發展。
葉倫也表示，若真的發生債務違約可能導致利率飆升、股價大跌和其他金融動蕩。目前的經濟復甦將逆轉為衰退，和數百萬的工作崗位將流失。
四、10年期美債收益率若升破 1.7％，這是十月股災的警鐘嗎？
9/22日Fed結束為期兩天的利率政策會議，會後決議利率政策按兵不動，但暗示很快將開始縮減購債 (Taper)。
Fed 主席鮑爾會後記者會上也透露，如果經濟進展如預期，可能適合在下一次FOMC會議 (11 /2日至11/3日) 宣布縮減購債 (Taper) ，並於2022年中結束。
Fed現正等待10 /8日發布的9月非農就業報告，在9月初公布的8月非農就業人口僅增加23.5萬人，而6月和7月都增加將近100萬人，此增加Fed判讀的變數。但鮑爾強調，Fed 不需要看到一份令人驚豔的或超級強勁的非農就業報告，就能開始啟動 Taper，並從寬鬆政策中退場。
至於升息時間點，鮑爾暗示，最快可能在2022年底前升息。
目前，市場正在焦急等待聯準會 (Fed) 為縮減購債時間表提出更明確的方向，以及 Fed 未來的領導人選（主席鮑爾任期明年2月屆滿），但是國會在擴大支出和債務上限方面的磋商遲無進展此，讓貨幣政策退場，及財政政策啣接不順的風險放大。
目前美國大基建、人文社福預算、債務上限協商都卡關，近期美國國會尚有一長串待辦清單，預料將針對基礎建設、社福相關的預算案、舉債上限的磋商都有一番廝殺，華府將陷10年來最大政治風險。
不過參議院共和黨矢言反對任何增加聯邦債務，兩黨正在進行一場危險遊戲，若遲遲無法達成協議，可能導致政府運作陷入混亂，或至少在達成協定前先擾亂金融市場。
相較QE退場，美國債務上限提高亦是危機重重，目前美國債務已突破28.4兆美元的上限，暫停「法定債務上限案」必須趕在10/1日前通過，屆時沒有更多的資金可使用，將造成聯邦政府機構十年來第三次關閉，並連動引爆美債債務違約，目前阿富汗問題使拜登總統聲望受挫，共和黨必將在參院阻撓舉債上限提高的議題，進一步打擊拜登政府。
總之，2021年秋天的大型立法議程賭注很高。拜登及民主黨希望靠這些立法議程守住在國會和白宮未來幾年的優勢；但國會秋季立法進展，也同樣決定共和黨能否在明年的期中選舉重掌眾議院或參議院。
由於大規模新支出和加稅法案的可行性受到質疑，現在又有舉債上限攪局，所以，溫和派民主黨議員曼欽、席納瑪等人擔心同黨議員提案可能引發的政治代價，例如西維吉尼亞州參議員曼欽即反對國會通過3.5兆美元預算，呼籲按下「戰略性暫停鍵」，此讓金融市場在10月到來將飽受威脅動盪。
回顧近十年美國債務上限危機最大的一次發生在2011年8月，因國會尚未達成提高債務上限的方案，美債違約機率升高，投資人拋售手中的短期國債，三個月美債收益率由7月最低的 0.01％，飆升至8 /1日的最高0.1％，大漲10倍，引發美股重挫。
歷史借鏡，美國債務上限危機先行指標，可觀察10年期美債收益率，若美國債務上限危機擴大，估計收益率將上漲至1.5～2％，一旦10年期美債收益率升破 1.7％，全球股市將承壓沈重。或許最後結果應可順利解決，但避險情緒短期可能引發全球十月股災的修正，必須提高戒心。
彭博專欄作家Brian Chappatta9/23日也發文稱，近期美股拉回，往往發生在美國10年期公債殖利率和標普500股息殖利率(dividend yield)的利差擴大之際。
例如9/23日10年期美債殖利率升達1.41%、站上100日均線。與此同時，標普500的股息殖利率只有1.33%。上次兩者出現此種利差是在9/7日，接下來11個交易日，標普500有9天收低。7月中也有類似情況，當時10年美債殖利率走揚，比標普500的股息殖利率高出近9個基點，隨後美股在不到一週內重挫3%。
由於近日市場預測「緊縮貨幣政策」的時代即將到來，致歐美公債殖利率齊揚，9月底10年期美債殖利率已突破1.5％，這是股市即將回檔的警訊嗎？
值得附帶一提的是，除了Fed縮減購債在即，引發美公債10年期殖利率升破1.5%的警訊外，從利差表現來看，2021年7月份美國高收益債 (又稱垃圾債) 也已出現投資人拋售量大增的情形，拋售規模創下自2020年9月以來的新高，顯現出投資人信心不足。
高收益債一向被視作「礦坑中的金絲雀」，與投資級債券和股市相比，能夠更快速的反應資金風險偏好，並預警風險資產的波動。
根據 ICE 美國銀行美國高收益指數，7月的美國高收益債券殖利率較公債高出了約332個基點，殖利率利差達到29個基點。
利差一點一點擴大，正暗示人們擔心未來經濟成長可能放緩。如果成長放緩，將傷害到這些企業，因為信貸條件可能因此收緊。
五、「債務陷阱」是否將引發「停滯性」通膨危機？
有「末日博士」之稱的紐約大學經濟學教授魯比尼(Roubini)在接受採訪時表示，當新冠肺炎疫情爆發，相關防疫封鎖措施對全球經濟造成衝擊，此時寬鬆的貨幣政策和刺激性財政政策被認為是支持金融體系的必要條件，但結果是相反的。
他認為，目前正處於債務超級週期，經濟危機可能正再度重現，並且是由「債務陷阱」所引發的。
魯比尼也表示，如今各國央行正陷入了「債務陷阱」當中，但是，在私人和公共債務如此之高的背景下，如果央行試圖逐步縮減貨幣政策，必然導致股債市場、信貸市場崩盤和經濟嚴峻的衰退風險，無法使政策利率走回正常化。
而魯比尼先前曾抨擊，拜登已就職半年，經濟政策延續川普政府的大方向，帶有濃厚的新民粹主義色彩，並造成巨大的債務增長，終將釀成停滯性通膨。
他指出，雖然拜登並未像川普公開強烈要求弱勢美元，也沒有恫嚇Fed為自己政策創造出的巨額預算赤字埋單，但是「拜登」仍跳不出「川普」設計框架，只會抄襲「川普」作業，砸龐大的財政赤字也再次由舉債來支撐，Fed 也將被迫訴諸長期的貨幣化操作來解決。面對此大規模的債務，意味著Fed 將墜入「債務陷阱」，實質上已經進入永久性債務。
魯比尼強調，此寬鬆的財政與貨幣政策，從長期角度看來，終將進入永久性債務。
在這樣的情況下，魯比尼認為，去化債務阻力最小的應是利用「負債通膨化」的陰謀，即透過提高通膨率解決負債問題。亦即，在容忍通膨率較高的情況下，以固定利率消滅名目債務的實際價值。
由於美國長期處於過度消費狀態，並在245年間累積近30兆美元的債務，債務增長率遠遠超過經濟增長的速度，這是「寅吃卯糧」的棘手問題。以美國當前積累的債務來看，也已經膨脹至美國經濟自己的經濟增長無法彌補承受的程度。
但派對結束後，總要有人要為派對付費？
美國為解決長期負債攀升的問題，「提高通膨增長率」是最暗黑的方法，亦即將「負債通膨化」，讓美債、美元持有人資產貶損來共同分攤。
由於債務的名目利率通常是固定的，通膨率的增加，將有助於壓低實質利率，進而減輕債務壓力，例如將長期通膨增長目標由2% 短期容忍調升至4%，將可以大幅削減美國整體的實質負債規模，這應是目前聯準會採取的「平均通膨目標」架構下的陰謀，亦即將「負債通膨化」，讓美債、美元持有人共同分攤。
但是，「提高通膨增長率」亦會導致其他潛在問題，儘管通膨率的增加減輕了債務人的壓力，但卻將壓力轉嫁至債權人，導致債權人(美債、美元持有人)的資產權益受到侵蝕，同時，去美債將使美元長期趨貶，並支撐原物料上漲。
此外，通膨增長率的上升亦將導致實質薪資縮水，使得勞動階級的工作意願降低。疫情以來造成的700萬失業人口一直停滯不前，或許正是實質薪資縮水的問題影響。
而上述這兩個潛在問題，正是「停滯性」通膨成長的溫床。
六、通膨與景氣趨緩的兩難
寬鬆的貨幣與財政政策所泡製的「債務陷阱」，正在引發「停滯性」通膨危機…。
■歐元區綜合採購經理人指數 (PMI)下滑，但通膨警鈴響起！
根據 IHS Markit在10/1日公布的最新報告，歐元區9月製造業數據顯示，歐元區9月製造業採購經理人(PMI) 終值從8月的61.4跌至9月的58.6，創2月以來新低。
IHS Markit表示：「雖然歐元區製造業在9月持續增長，但隨著供應鏈瓶頸造成的損失越來越大，增長已明顯減弱。且供應問題繼續對歐洲製造業造成嚴重衝擊，供應延遲和短缺的程度是近25年來從未見過的，而且沒有任何即將改善的跡象，已有製造商將部分漲幅轉嫁給了客戶。此將使歐元區通膨率加速成長，通膨壓力也隨之加劇。」
依歐洲統計局 (Eurostat) 10/1日數據顯示，歐元區9月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 年增3.4%，並寫2008年9月以來13年新高。
細看CPI組成項目，9月能源價格較2020年同期飆升17.4%，因歐洲天然氣供應短缺，導致能源成本飆升，歐元區通膨增速在9月攀至13 年新高，市場對於通膨加劇的擔憂恐進一步擴大。
例如2021年迄今，作為歐洲天然氣價格基準的荷蘭TTF天然氣期貨已漲近 400%，能源分析師警告，市場對於供應短缺的緊張情緒恐延續至冬季，預計價格飆升情況不會很快緩解。
針對近期通膨加劇，歐洲央行 (ECB) 1.85兆歐元的疫情緊急購債計畫 (PEPP) 可能在2022年3月如期結束，或購債規模也可能在計畫結束前幾個月慢慢減少，或歐洲央行未來幾個月將決定是否延長PEPP。
■美國9月ISM製造業PMI升至61.1優於預期，創5月以來高點
美國製造業活動進一步升溫，10/1日公布的9月ISM製造業採購經理人指數 (PMI) 報 61.1，優於市場預期，創下自5月以來高點。
另外，但由於供應鏈受阻、關鍵材料短缺、大宗商品價格上漲與產品運輸困難影響，原物料交貨期拉長連帶拉高投入成本，導致物價繼續走揚，9 月價格指數已連續16個月上升，報81.2，高於上月的79.4且增速加快，顯示受供應鏈中斷影響，供應商祭出漲價措施以應對不斷上漲的成本。
■美國8月消費支出增幅超預期，核心PCE續創30年新高
美國商務部10/1日公布最新數據，在商品支出推動下，8月消費支出增幅高於預期，個人消費支出物價指數 (PCE Price Index) 則續寫30年新高。
BMO Capital Markets 經濟學家 Sal Guatieri 表示，雖然在薪資、淨資產成長以及超額儲蓄支持下，美國家庭仍有充足的消費空間，但消費能力正在受到高物價侵蝕。
在產品與服務供不應求的狀況下，價格又出現大幅上漲，高額的成本紛紛轉嫁至消費者身上，此皆加深大眾對通膨失控的擔憂。
■各國央行對於通膨的低估
另外，各國央行對於通膨的低估，顯得過於自信與樂觀。他們甚至忘記，由於央行政策不斷擴大貨幣供應，一直在助長通膨。而通膨壓力持續上升，已將實際利率大幅推入負值深淵。
根據德國統計局 (Destatis) 在9/20 日公布的最新數據顯示，德國2021年8月生產者物價指數 (PPI) 較去年同期成長12%，並且已經連續第12個月上升，並創下1974年12月以來新高，逾46年來新高。
原物料短缺和供應鏈問題，正在對德國經濟復甦造成衝擊。
根據德國工商協會的調查數據顯示，有高達 83% 的德國企業表示，由於訂單無法完成。有四分之一的受訪企業不得不削減生產計劃，甚至被迫暫停生產。
依目前發展，由於新冠肺炎疫情的爆發，使得生產和運輸能力受到限制，尤其是船舶運輸，原物料供應短缺，鋼鐵、鋁、銅和木材的供應瓶頸和價格上漲尤為明顯，而汽車業的半導體晶片嚴重短缺。有高達三分之二的德國企業表示，會將價格上漲成本轉嫁給客戶。因此，大宗商品的供應瓶頸，可能意味著當前通膨上升不是一個暫時的現象，可能將會在中長期影響全球經濟。
另9/27日Fed主席鮑爾亦示警：由於供應鏈瓶頸、勞工招聘困難持續時間比預期還長，從而對通膨構成上行風險，預計未來幾個月內通膨仍將居高不下，但預計終將減弱，屆時將回落到長期2%目標。
七、年底前「縮減購債規模」，將使全球股市資金動能的減速
回顧歷史經驗，聯準會縮減QE，分成討論、宣佈、實施三個階段。
從討論到宣佈，對股市衝擊最大；反而宣佈後，利空出盡；實施往往股市創新高。
例如上次美國因應金融海嘯，於2009年起實施三輪QE，聯準會於2013年5月宣佈縮減QE；2014年元月開始縮減QE；最後2015年年底升息。
當年聯準會主席伯南克輕忽市場對縮減QE的恐慌，2013年5月沒有充分與市場溝通，就突然宣佈，引發全球股災。
但2014年元月開始縮減QE，反而股市再創高點，完全收復失土。
不過，2015年12月升息，股市又回跌，表示聯準會升息，對股市仍是負面效應。
目前聯準會每月仍購債1,200億美元，其中，800億美元公債、400億美元抵押貸款證券。聯準會一旦開始縮減購債，可能會先減少400億美元抵押貸款證券，此對市場立即造成資金動能收縮的作用。
由於聯準會預計年底前縮減QE，屆時將使全球股市資金動能開始減速。另根據目前聯準會的利率點陣圖，最快2022年底升息一碼，由此判斷真正升息恐落在2023上半年。因此，距離升息仍有緩衝期，所以資金行情不死、只是逐漸凋零。
假如聯準會在下一次FOMC會議 (11 /2日至11/3日) 宣布縮減購債 (Taper) ，因為市場早有預期，股市可能會在短線跌深後上演利空出盡的軋空戲碼，但12月開始縮減QE，少了每月數百億美元的購債動能挹注，仍會拉動10年期美債收益率上升，對股市長線有一定的衝擊，將有一波回檔修正壓力。
八、「增稅」才是美股2022年主要風險，而非經濟放緩
■若拜登「大基建」、「人文基建」法案規模縮水，預期的利多呢？
拜登把著重於醫療、教育和氣候變遷的「人文基建」法案視為重要政績，以及確保民主黨在期中選舉得勝的關鍵。
但由於黨內分歧，黨內溫和派想通過的是「大基建案」，對增稅和龐大支出的「人文基建」法案感到卻步，進步派則矢言反對1兆美元「大基建案」，以抗議黨團遲遲未就社福支出的「人文基建」法案達成協議。因此美國眾議院排定9/30日表決的1兆美元「大基建案」不得不取消，協商持續進行中。
知情人士透露，美國總統拜登正準備妥協，攸關基礎建設和社福的兩大經濟議程可能縮水，以便讓立場對立的民主黨團結一致。
■若拜登「大基建」、「人文基建」法案如期通過，稅收如何因應呢？
從歷史經驗來看，全球經濟成長放緩實為景氣從復甦初期進入擴張中期的必經過程，並不代表全球經濟將重陷衰退；而聯準會重申將持續關注經濟發展，採取漸進式有序退場的政策彈性，並透過前瞻指引持續與市場溝通，有望降低貨幣政策轉向對經濟及市場的影響。
美國貨幣政策退場已是既定進程，2022年財政政策是否啣接順利才是美國股市是否延續多頭的關鍵。因此，財政政策的另一面刃「稅改」是美國股市2022年年前面臨的主要風險，而不是經濟放緩。
高盛估計，拜登所提的稅改版本，會透過一定的減縮打折，來爭取國會通過。
自2017年川普減稅以來，美國實際有效稅率為18%。假設最後國會將公司稅定於25%，並增加對外國收入的稅收，此將使得標普500指數的公司獲利減少5%。
這對短線股市具有一定殺傷力，韭菜們應明哲保身。
九、跋尾—-狼來了、狼來了
9/28日美國財政部長葉倫再度發出警告，除非國會提高債務上限，否則聯邦政府可能將於10 /18日用罄手頭資金而關門，這也可能導致美國有史以來第一次債務違約，美國的信用將受到損害，可能會損害美元的地位，並導致「歷史性的金融危機。」
國際信評公司惠譽自2020年7月以來就將美國財政惡化，將美國信用評級前景降為「負面」，惠譽10/1日再次警告，美國國會兩黨間任何債務上限的邊緣政策 (Brinkmanship)政治爭論可能導致美國 AAA信用評級不保。
惠譽聲明中提到，最近暫停美國債務上限屢遭失敗的狀況表明，目前國會僵局可能是自2013年以來最持久的僵局之一。美國債務上限將上調或及時暫停以避免發生違約事件，但如果不及時解決，政治邊緣政策和融資靈活性降低，可能會增加美國首度債務違約的風險。
2011年8 /5日國際三大評級機構之一標準普爾就曾因美國提高債務上限陷入政治僵局，首次將美國信用評級降級，從原先的AAA降為AA+，造成美股重挫。
自1960年代以來，美國國會習慣在裝腔做勢後，才調高債務上限 (約80次)。
而這一次野蠻遊戲，「狼來了」喊太多次，會不會真的來一次？
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