大盤止跌訊號

大盤止跌訊號

2home.co  楊惟婷

 

台股4月底自高點17709點反轉下殺,5/12日又受到疫情嚴峻衝擊信心,出現雪崩式人踩人,盤中一度崩跌到低點15165.27點,大家都關切止跌訊號為何?

 

一、當沖客不止,跌勢不止!

在偉大政府鼓勵下,當沖證交稅減半,稅率由千分之3減半為千分之1.5計算,當沖交易已成台股顯學。「日日沖」除可培養當沖客愛國情操,而政府做莊荷包滿滿,各取所需。例如,4月證交稅實徵淨額244億元,創下歷史新高。

 

在QE資金行情加持下,帶動大盤指數在17000 點歷史新點處沖沖樂,市場交投熱絡,根據證交所統計,4月當沖成交值比重攀升至34.2%,每天平均當沖戶數約158396戶,尤其自5月4日起,連續4個交易日當沖交易占比突破4成。

 

但當日沖銷的操作比重提高後,卻會造成股市漲時助漲、跌時助跌,尤其帶動ETF程式交易的追漲殺跌的恐佈現象。只有當沖客槁木死灰,台股籌碼才落底!

 

二、科斯托蘭尼的「小狗與主人」

 

通常一支股票長期有其理性「投資價值」,但短期內投資人容易受市場買賣情緒影響,而產生「從眾」的價格波動。

科斯托蘭尼曾做個比喻,經濟是主人,股市則是小狗。股市總會因為波動大、漲多等各種因素,而出現短期回檔(狗跑太遠、總會回來主人身邊)。但是拉長來看,只要長線經濟復甦延續,適時的回檔,反而會讓投資價值浮現,也讓長期的趨勢走得更為健康。

熟悉狗的朋友就知道,狗是會來回奔跑的,但是最終狗還是會跑回主人身旁。
此好比,長遠看來股市會跟著經濟方向走,但是過程中,股市卻可能呈現跟經濟實況完全相反的方向。如同近期QE錢潮弄人,在股市投資人「害怕錯失良機 (fear of missing out)」的心理作祟下,今年來正在折磨著投資人……

誠如經濟學家凱因斯曾說的一句名言:「長期來看,大家都死了。(In the long run, we are all dead)」。很多人是等不及長期到來的!所以,大多數股市投資人,都是偏好短線進出的,只有等到套牢了才是長期投資。

 

但是,短期股票價格的起伏是取決於「人心」和「資金」,而「資金」又被「人心」所操控的,所以「人心浮動」是決定短期股票價格波動最重要的因素。
如想在股市中獲勝,你必須透澈了解「群眾心理」,並且知道目前「籌碼」落在什麼人手裡?亦即,只有等到「價值投資」抬頭,讓「籌碼」被長線買盤鎖住,才是長期投資買點浮現。

 

三、大盤止跌指標

 

金融市場永遠是對的,我們都不是神。
我們只是市場跟隨者,要對盤勢、個股公正客觀看待,不預設立場。
當盤勢、個股走勢跟你的預想不同,就要修正自己看法,並且在跌破(或漲過)某些關鍵價格,就該認錯出場(或進場),並調整部位、觀點,而不是糾結在證明自己才是對的。所以說:投資重在修正,不在預測。

 

以下,提供八種大盤止跌指標供看倌參考:

1、當台灣疫情擴散程度獲得有效控制之前,請謹慎而行!

解鈴還須繫鈴人,此波下殺導因疫情爆發,而近期能否控制疫情擴散程度,才是大盤止跌的最重要關鍵,所以每日確診數變化是大盤漲跌指標。未來的單日確診數只要不再續創新高,對於市場來說就算是個好消息了!不是嗎?

 

2、「護國神山」台積電、聯發科及鴻海的止穩,是政府是否護盤指標

此外,「護國神山」台積電、聯發科及鴻海佔大盤權值大,是官股護盤核心。

尤其,台積電自歷史高點 679 元以來,5/12日摔破半年線跌到518元;另業績表現優異的聯發科更是在創下歷史新高價1185元後,5/12日最低殺到821元,短短8個交易日重挫超過3成。但隨後神秘買盤進場承接這兩大權值股,終場皆拉出一根長下影線,出現V型反彈走勢。未來,若這三大權值王只要不破底,才是大盤指數落底指標。

 

3、台指VIX指數是否能續創新高?

恐慌指數頂點,往往是股市的反轉點,為散戶反指標,往往就是市場的鐵則。

回顧2020年疫情爆發時,3月18日恐慌指數創下歷史新高,接著3月23日來到最高點,但指數卻早在3月19日止跌。

 

5/12日受到疫情嚴峻衝擊信心,大盤一度崩跌到低點15165.27點,台指VIX指數盤中升破43.91,在此次新增180例與升級三級警戒後,接下來幾天的恐慌程度勢必會達到頂點,所以未來幾天須注意台指VIX指數是否能續創新高?若不再續創新高,代表市場恐慌程度緩解,就是止跌訊號。

 

4、等融資維持率等殺到140%再說!
至5/12日此波段跌點達2543.96點,跌幅達14.3%;但同期間,因為散戶勇敢進場槓桿式加碼,融資餘額衝高到2740.63億元創9年高水位以來。

 

當融資餘額創新高,指數進入大跌時,融資戶會面臨融資追繳,就會引發多殺多一波接一波的連環爆。
回憶台股前一次殺融資,是在十年前的2011年1月,當時台股高點9220點,融資餘額達3263億元,大盤跌至最低6609點,融資減至1757億元,減了1506億元,減幅僅46%才見止跌。
而此波下殺直到4/13為止,才降到2366億元,波段只減肥374億元,減幅僅13%,顯示籌碼尚凌亂。若指數再不止跌,就會引發多殺多的連環減肥。

 

尤其這次台股急跌,融資維持率已跌至150%附近,若再殺出一波,短線將會出現一波波多殺多連環炸,所以近日宜避開高融資使用率個股,以免接到向下的刀子。未來融資維持率若跌破140%,融資追繳將萬箭齊發後,才是短線最佳反彈的契機。

 

5、靜待線型築出底部再說!

台股5/12日大跌逾1400點,隨後神秘買盤進場承接台積電、聯發科及鴻海等權值股,終場皆拉出一根700多點長下影線,守住半年線15600點。但月線17000點、季線16500點已成蓋頭反壓,上檔龐大套牢賣壓,今年恐難穿越,長線多頭已埋下隱憂。但由於短線跌速過快,容易有反彈逃命線,投資人可把握此一線生機,調整投資組合。

 

由跌幅判斷,此波由17709點跌至15165點共下跌2544點,反彈1/2處逃命線約在季線16500點反壓處,反彈0.618處逃命線約在16740點反壓處,反之,若半年線15600點再次跌破,應小心進行第二波修正,將引爆恐慌性賣壓,中線修正恐將等跌到年線14000點才有可能止穩,不能不防。

 

6、靜待成交量出現3500億元以下窒息量再說!

近日大盤屢屢爆量大跌,顯示短線籌碼凌亂,須以跌止跌、靜待浮額沉澱。未來,若成交量能出現3500億元以下窒息量,暗示浮額沉澱,大盤才有可能止穩。

 

7、「國安基金」是否進場護盤,也是止穩的重要指標

現在的政府非常看重股市這項政績,從去年3月的國安基金進場;去年7月12000點之上國安基金打死不退;2月金管會主委為16000點的基本面掛保證;4月央行總裁勸國人提高投資率;到5月崩跌過後,國安基金、金管會、行政院、甚至總統本人都出面喊話,這在意的程度不言可喻了吧!台股5/12日大跌逾1400點,財政部長蘇建榮表示,受到國內疫情升溫的影響造成恐慌性賣壓,已經密切注意,必要時會召開臨時會決議(是否護盤)。

 

但須留意,一開始「國安基金」只是口水護盤,通常「國安基金」會等跌幅到年線、十年線的長線跌幅滿足點,才有可能會進場拉抬。

 

8、台幣須重回升勢,才能吸引外資買盤回歸

自2020年以來,在川普貿易戰轉單效應及大陸疫情催化台商鮭魚返鄉設廠下,台幣展開驚人升勢。

此外,由於2020年來漲勢瘋狂,理性的外資卻大量賣超、套現超過9000億元,致台股籌碼被破壞了。外資套現的9000億元,透過乘數效果收縮,市場已嚴重失血,在散戶「害怕錯過」心態下,以融資槓桿、期權、當沖挹注失血,雖力撐170000點上震盪,卻無力扭轉外資大量套現後挫力,終究淪為被割韭菜。所以,未來台幣必須重回升勢,暗示外資買盤回歸,台股指數長線仍有落底機會。

 

四、跋尾—別人貪婪我恐懼、別人恐懼我貪婪!

 

股市從不乏故事,但故事總在悲觀中落底、在半信半疑中成長、在樂觀中結束。

此波,當越來越多人喊台股上看兩萬到三萬點時,投資人在極度樂觀中本應甩開貪婪、從眾心態,才能持盈保泰。

 

台股第一波多殺多崩跌尚不是恐懼的總和,下一波可能才是恐懼的總和!
但利用這次下殺也給市場冷靜的機會,並不是壞事,接下來要讓基本面說話,回歸「價值投資」,未來自然會給大家帶來另一次機會。

 

隨著疫苗接種普及與防疫管制逐步放寬,全球經濟將在2021年下半年強勁復甦,且美國聯準會宣示在2023年前都將維持於零利率的水平,允許通膨暫以平均通膨率2%為目標,顯示現階段寬鬆環境前所未見。未來幾個月美股伴隨拜登「基建計畫」,美股仍有「融漲」(melt-up)機會,但隨著年底Fed開始緊縮貨幣政策來調控通膨成長,美股也可能應聲重挫。

 

尤其,台股未來仍須面對的變數包括本土疫情能否控制、中美衝突能否緩解、美國FED何時QE縮減、升息等?

 

吾人認為,台股此次創高17709點後,急跌下殺至15165點,短線籌碼凌亂,此時投資人必須療傷止痛,不應對搶反彈報酬率有過高的期待。尤其長線多頭已埋下隱憂(量先做頭)後,投資人應把握反彈契機,調整投資組合,並嚴控持股比例,且建立風險對沖的操作策略。

 

大凡心理素質好的投資人,比較不會隨著外界各種訊息,左右投資信心而追高殺低。他總能在別人貪婪時抽身、在別人恐懼中人棄我取。所以,想要長期在股市中獲利,不妨利用身經百戰,來提昇自己的心理素質吧!

 

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