掌握數據就掌握世界
2home.co 楊惟雯
當今全球前幾大市值企業蘋果、Alphabet、微軟、臉書、亞馬遜、特斯拉全部都是坐擁龐大數據資料的科技公司。
《經濟學人(The Economist)》2017年5月指出，世界上最寶貴的資源不再是石油、而是數據。
而當全球最寶貴資源不再是石油，是否主宰數據＝主導世界？
一、大數據時代的到來
眾所周知，互聯網時代下的大數據具有豐富性、即時性、自發性等一系列特點，時時刻刻在觸及我們生活的味蕾。所以，大數據時代的到來，對我們的生活、工作發生了重大的衝擊。
例如，在大數據時代下，市場行銷將發生以下質變？
大數據概念的出現，不僅標誌著資訊時代的革命，同時也推動著市場行銷向專業化、數據化、精準化方向發展。
1、對使用者行為和特徵分析
大數據時代下催生了眾多數位化特徵，那麼，何為數位化特徵？亦即使用者的消費行為和特徵都可以通過數位來量化，可以更清楚的瞭解目標受眾的使用者需求。
2、採精準化行銷
使用者的每一次購買行為在經過數字量化後，公司或企業可以在這些量化的數位基礎上，將行銷資訊進行精確推送，保證目標受眾的精準化。
3、利用大數據對消費者投其所好
每一次的數據收集都代表著使用者行為的精準分析，而分析是為了更好的將行銷活動投其所好。
過去的行銷猶如亂槍打鳥，散發出去的廣告、內容訊息或推薦商品，無法精準地掌握客戶，但透過大數據的力量，分析用戶過去瀏覽過的紀錄、搜尋過的商品，在推出個人化推薦功能之後，透過App推播個人化的訊息，將相關的特價商品或新上架同類型品項推薦給用戶，加深消費者的購物體驗，大大提升了快速交易的機率。
此外，推播時機也可以透過大數據，了解消費者使用的社群工具或App的時間，再鎖定推播時機，讓訊息能夠更即時有效地傳遞到消費者眼前，增加行銷威力。此不僅革新了行銷觀念，大數據也催生了眾多不可思議的行銷案例。
例如在大數據的分析下，阿里雲知道誰要貸款，每天海量的交易和資料在阿里的平臺上跑著，阿里通過對商戶最近100天的資料分析，就能知道哪些商戶可能存在資金問題，此時的阿里貸款平臺就有可能主動出擊，同潛在的貸款對象進行溝通。
又如，大數據應用也存在我們生活的各個角落。
美國的Target百貨公司上線了一套客戶分析工具，可以對顧客的購買記錄進行分析，並向顧客進行產品推薦。根據一個女孩在Target連鎖店中的購物記錄，推斷出這個女孩懷孕，然後開始通過購物手冊的形式向女孩推薦一系列孕婦產品，這是大資料應用化的一個有力佐證。
大數據已然顛覆了市場行銷，基於資料分析的使用者行為研究不僅可以提供行銷決策的依據，而且還將會為後續的行銷提供服務體驗改進。簡而言之：大數據分析能夠在冗繁的資訊中洞察消費者的個性化需求。所以，主宰數據＝主導世界。
二、大數據戰爭的案例
2017年5月22日，申通、圓通、中通、韻達的4位董事長共同出席了全球智慧物流峰會。雖然貴為大陸鼎鼎有名的巨頭級人物，但這4位都是在台下坐著聽講，而給他們“講課”的是馬雲。
馬雲說：“我告訴大家，一天10億個包裹，不會超過8年，估計在六、七年左右就能實現。”但是，馬雲毫不留情地批評到，目前他還沒在國內看到哪家公司，在眼光、格局、組織、人才、技術各方面做好了準備，迎接10億包裹時代的到來。
馬雲在演講中稱：
今天的物流公司，給人的感覺是土不啦嘰的公司。如果不在技術上投入，是不會有出息的。如果你的快遞公司，今天還是靠七大姑、八大姨，還是靠親戚，純粹靠家族企業，是沒辦法支撐起來的;快遞公司引進了不少人才，但沒有看到大家為未來儲備優秀的人才，這個速度遠遠不夠，並且還是有點失望。很多公司已經上市，更多物流公司在排隊上市，但沒有發現上市後跟沒上市有多大的區別，錢花不對就是傻子。
此外，馬雲還直截了當地向物流大佬們表示，不管你們同不同意，這裡至少一半的人，十年以後都不會在這裡了，這就是殘酷的未來。
1、順豐和菜鳥互嗆羅生門，快遞業巨震
2017年6月的第一天，大陸最大的物流公司順豐與最大的電商阿里撕破了臉。阿里旗下菜鳥網路與順豐相繼發出聲明，互指對方關閉物流數據介面。菜鳥指責順豐不配合數據安全合作，順豐指責菜鳥想調用豐巢（順豐控股公司）超過使用範圍的資訊。
事件羅生門：菜鳥、順豐雙方各執一詞。
菜鳥率先發佈聲明稱，5月31日晚上6點，菜鳥接到順豐發出的資料介面暫停告知。6月1日凌晨，順豐就關閉了自提櫃的數據資訊回傳。6月1日中午，順豐又進一步關閉了整個淘寶平臺物流資訊的回傳。
這導致了部分商家和消費者的資訊混亂，商家無法確定買家是否已經收貨，買家也不能跟蹤商品的即時資訊。
另外，菜鳥稱，為保護消費者隱私、電話資訊安全，菜鳥根據安全團隊的建議正在對全網物流資料進行資訊安全升級。將加強對海淘、快遞櫃等物流資料的多重交叉驗證，但順豐及豐巢等出於各種原因並不配合。有媒體稱，此次菜鳥之所以要對物流資料進行安全升級，其中有很大一部分原因是因為前段時間流出的一段視頻。視頻中，順豐以及“四通一達”快遞代收點公開提供“異地上線“服務，説明國內廠商虛構海外發貨的物流資訊，使假貨搖身變成海外代購的正品。
但是，順豐對這一事件給出了另一個版本的解釋：不是順豐關閉菜鳥資料介面，而是阿里系平臺封殺了順豐。
順豐表示，旗下的豐巢在2016年跟菜鳥開始合作。內容包括：菜鳥提供消費者手機號資訊給豐巢。豐巢回饋相關快遞櫃物流資訊給菜鳥。
但在2017年3～4月續約的過程中，菜鳥提出：所有快遞櫃資訊的觸發必須通過菜鳥裹裹，取件碼資訊無條件給到菜鳥，豐巢需要返回所有包裹資訊給菜鳥（包括非淘系訂單）。豐巢難以接受以上合作條款。
順豐每天在豐巢的訂單大概有300多萬個，其中只有100多萬是可以匹配到菜鳥的，其他的均與菜鳥無關。現在菜鳥想要剩下的這些物流資訊，順豐自然不同意。順豐表示“將繼續捍衛自身核心競爭力，希望所有快遞行業同仁警惕菜鳥染指快遞公司核心數據行為。”
另外，順豐還指出，菜鳥有針對性封殺豐巢背後實質是阿里方面以資訊安全為由，要求順豐、豐巢等從騰訊雲切換至阿里雲。
2、電商業與快遞業背後的大數據戰爭
馬雲曾多次表示，未來最大的能源是數據，此次菜鳥、順豐雙方爭論的焦點正是數據。
目前大陸的快遞市場競爭激烈，幾家大公司大致可以分為3個陣營：順豐、京東物流和菜鳥網路。
其中，京東的模式是“自己玩”。是一個以服務京東商城上的入駐商家的物流配送和倉儲體系，等於是形成一個購物、倉配、快遞和售後的閉環體驗。
相比之下，菜鳥的理念就是“一起玩”。菜鳥憑藉淘寶、天貓的電商平臺，吸引了很多家快遞公司合作。成立於2013年5月的菜鳥網路是由阿里巴巴集團與順豐集團、三通一達（申通、圓通、中通、韻達）等共同組建，不過順豐與三通一達僅各出資5000萬，分別占股1%。
所以，菜鳥其實就是一個整合平臺，整合多個快遞公司的資源，形成一個物流數據平臺。目的一方面是為阿里電商平臺提供更為優化的物流配送服務體驗，其實也是阿里電商產業鏈中的一環。
菜鳥的最大優勢就是通過同盟軍的方式來快速完成覆蓋，成本極低，靈活性大。但同時，由於“入夥”的快遞公司只是一個相對鬆散的聯盟，這幾家公司的大部分利潤都是被菜鳥物流給吸走，因此菜鳥在管控能力上，則弱了許多。但這些加入菜鳥聯盟的快遞也都被“套牢”了，現在已經沒有能力離開了。因為被踢走，50%的業務就沒有了。所以你的命根子已被抓在手裡。
但是，其中只有一個例外，那就是順豐。雖然順豐和菜鳥有合作，但同時又在搭建自己的快遞體系。
梳理歷史資訊可發現，兩家巨頭雖然表面“親密”，實際積怨已久，在解決“最後一公里”難題、全球化佈局中雙方漸行漸遠。
其實早在2013年12月，中通、申通、圓通和韻達就聯合成立了蜂網投資有限公司，每家各出資5000萬元人民幣，分別占股25％。2014年順豐也加入了蜂網，同樣出資5000萬元。董事長由圓通速遞董事長喻渭蛟擔任；董事由申通快遞董事長陳德軍、韻達快遞董事長聶騰雲、中通快遞董事長賴海松組成。
當時，菜鳥主要是針對普通消費者，而蜂網則是將快遞企業聯合起來，形成規模效應，集中採購車輛、設備等，以降低運營成本。因為“三通一達”在業務上存在競爭關係，但在採購設備等方面並不存在競爭，聯合後可以大幅度降低成本，同時方便供應商為快遞企業提供定制化服務。
2015年5月，順豐聯手中通、申通、韻達和普洛斯一起投資5億成立“豐巢科技”來和菜鳥展開直接競爭。
豐巢的商業模式，是由豐巢科技與合作夥伴共同投資建設豐巢快遞櫃，是為物業公司、社區業主及快遞公司、行業用戶、電商企業打造的智慧快遞管理終端。使用者通過短信密碼、二維碼取件，系統還能提供寄件功能。此外，公司還通過廣告、快遞業務分成、電商使用傭金等來實現盈利。
據京東方面透露，豐巢的智慧自提櫃對京東最後一公里配送服務是一個有效的補充，這種快捷、方便的24小時無人自助式收貨服務很受社區和校園用戶歡迎。
此外，順豐還在海外擴張合作，就在2017年5月26日，順豐宣佈與UPS戰略合作，在香港成立獨立合資公司，中國國內市場+全球國際市場的全面合作，聚焦跨境貿易、拓展全球市場。此合資公司註冊資本500萬美元，雙方共同投資1000萬美元，分別持股50%。
本次所設合資企業將經營推廣和開發聯合品牌的國際快遞服務，助力順豐和UPS提供更具競爭力的國際貿易物流產品，聚焦B2B和B2C客戶的跨境貿易，拓展全球市場。而選擇與UPS成立獨資公司，順豐顯然在全球物流佈局上欲與阿里巴巴拉開差距。這一次，馬雲落後了。
可見，除了京東將銷售、倉儲、物流整合為一體之外，順豐、“三通一達”和菜鳥都在想辦法與其他快遞公司合作。那麼，它們在競爭中合作，又通過不同模式競爭，但最終的目的是什麼呢？
這個答案或許馬雲在5月22日的“2017全球智慧物流峰會”上已經說了。他說，未來物流背後的支撐是資料流程，真正的物流一定是數據的溝通，一定是數據化的物流。
最後，6月2日晚，國家郵政局召集菜鳥網路和順豐速運高層到北京，就雙方關閉互通數據介面問題進行協調。雙方表示將從講政治顧大局的高度出發，積極尋求解決問題的最大公約數，共同維護市場秩序和消費者合法權益，並同意從6月3日12時起，全面恢復業務合作和數據傳輸。但相信這場戰役，只是剛開始……
對於大陸其它快遞公司而言，目前將面臨很難抉擇的難題：
與順豐合作，有數據洩露風險；而依賴阿里的菜鳥，命根子被抓在手裡，大部分利潤會被菜鳥吸走。
順豐與菜鳥翻臉是為了保護了自家數據，同樣的，中通、圓通、申通、韻達（“三通一達”）與順豐的合作中，也在顧忌自身資料的安全。
作為豐巢的發起者，順豐允許所有快遞公司使用豐巢自提櫃系統，對於“三通一達”等快遞公司而言，使用豐巢便存在著將客戶資訊洩露給順豐的潛在風險，這些業界人士們也都彼此心懷猜忌。
但如果說與順豐合作有洩露數據的風險，過度依賴阿里也是危險之舉，說得難聽點，這幾家公司的大部分利潤都是被菜鳥物流給吸走。如今，隨著行業規模逐漸擴大以及競爭愈發激烈，快遞行業毛利率正在持續下滑。中金公司資料顯示，快遞行業毛利率已從2007年約30%的水準，下滑至目前5%至10%的水準，快遞件均收入從2005年的27.7元/件降至2015年的13元左右。
總之，有業內預言，這事件將迫使快遞公司再次進行整合，是選擇和同行業的順豐形成商業聯盟，還是和產業鏈上端的電商平臺組成戰隊？
選擇的結果，或將大幅改變整個大陸快遞業的格局。
三、主宰數據＝主導世界？
上世紀七○年代，當時金融市場有句名言就是：誰能控制石油，就能控制經濟。如果把這句話放到現在的時空環境，誰能掌控大數據，就能掌控全球。
誠如阿里巴巴創辦人馬雲說過，未來最大能源不是石油，而是大數據。未來的世界中，能掌握大數據的人就能控制全球；大數據指標企業普遍享有較高本益比。
而未來生活中，誰能掌控大數據，不僅能控制經濟，還能威脅到各國的國家安全。這句沒有誇張而是現實環境的演變。
2016年，川普團隊靠著數據分析，找到關鍵拉票對象，最終贏得大選，即是以上觀點的最佳實例。
掌握、分析並使用大數據的方式，如果只單純用在娛樂上，則有利人類生活；但如果被網軍用在大量製作和發送假新聞就能誤導人民價值選擇，就可能危害社會安定，對社會殺傷力不可小覷。因為掌握、分析並使用大數據的方式，可決定大數據如何影響人民價值選擇。
2020年抖音（TikTok）在美國，被其政府以國家安全的理由，被迫要將美國業務賣給美國企業，否則就要在美國市場下架。
抖音目前是全球最大咖的獨角獸，之前微軟和Wal-Mart想要聯手收購抖音的美國業務就開價約1760億美元，最後在大陸政府宣布演算法不能賣的前提下破局。
試想，抖音每天都有上百萬個視訊影片上傳，透過這樣的方式直接收集大量用戶的行為，抖音最有價值的地方除了這類大數據外，他們發展出來的演算法能分析數據的行為，透過蒐集來的視訊內容，能模仿用戶的行為，傳播背後操控者想要傳達的訊息內容。舉例來說，背後操控者可以用來製造假新聞，達到特定目的。由於抖音演算法技術相當細膩，加上抖音在美國用戶已深入各年齡層，尤其是三○歲以下的年輕人和青少年族群相當熱中參與抖音的內容，的確已掌握上百萬美國民眾的行為大數據。
另外，阿里巴巴子公司的螞蟻金服曾想在大陸與香港兩地IPO，總金額有可能創下350億美元的歷史新高紀錄，但同樣被大陸官方攔下，此凸顯大數據重要。
雖然，抖音和螞蟻金服沒成功上市，但其估值卻高得嚇人，就可知道未來大數據的爭奪戰有多麼重要。
而電子商務平台是最容易收集用戶的大數據，例如阿里巴巴、亞馬遜現在已發成全球巨大電子商務交易平台。若透過收集用戶消費行為的大數據，能讓阿里巴巴、亞馬遜對用戶的消費行為進行精準行銷，擴大電商的營業規模，也能強化用戶對亞馬遜電商平台的忠誠度。
阿里巴巴、亞馬遜為了管理和分析這些大數據，之後創造出雲端運算這項產品，提供企業和商家儲存與分析大數據的模式。雲端運算現在已經是阿里巴巴、亞馬遜的金雞母。
更何況阿里巴巴、亞馬遜在電商平台與雲端運算平台同時都在收集大數據，從大數據的角度來看，它們未來會發展出甚麼樣的新業務都是有可能，也比其他業者有機會。
此外，零售業大力發展電商業務後，也衍生大數據資料，透過客戶的銷售數據更能掌握客戶的消費行為，對提高零售業成長有助益。尤其，零售業整合線上、線下資訊，全面了解消費者的行為，甚或透過人臉辨識等感測器，在顧客進店時，便了解顧客喜好。若能做到以上，結合人(消費者)、貨(商品)、場(管道)，三種數據高度連結，產生的「完美資訊」及洞察力，意味著更深入的掌握客戶。而以上的革命，正是所謂的「新零售」。
又如連鎖咖啡店的星巴克，獨立發展出電子支付系統和會員制，這樣的模式提高整體營運成長動能；麥當勞、肯德雞這類連鎖餐廳也提供信用卡支付，未來也可能像星巴克那樣開發自己的電子支付系統，進而掌握未來的消費數據。
總之，在競爭越加激烈的商業賽局中，「數據」成了致勝關鍵，若能對數據準確收集、整合、運用，將能取得「完美資訊」，將比競爭者更勝一籌 。
亦即當數據時代的來臨，衝擊了傳統營運思維，卻隱藏無限商機。大數據的收集、開發、研究分析和使用都會是一門學問，誰能掌握更多的大數據和更高明的分析與判斷技術，誰就能掌握更多的資源。
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