無人貨架走上風口
楊惟雯
無人貨架行業始於2015年，而經資本催熟、品牌井噴的局面，到了2017年成為資本市場最瘋狂的一個風口。
2017年，40多家大大小小的無人貨架品牌瘋狂地融資、鋪點位，堪稱盛景。把一個個堆滿零食的貨架放進辦公室，以如此簡單粗暴的招式，開始了高調的擴張。
幾個頭部玩家曾經喊出的口號還歷歷在目——
果小美要在2018年做到100萬貨架；
便利蜂曾經要在北京開出1000家店，全國要開出10000家店；
猩便利用3個多月突破了1萬點位，50天從1萬發展到3萬點位；
每日優鮮便利購計畫2018年鋪上30萬個點位….。
無人貨架們又成資本市場的新一劑春藥，但是，到了2018年，所有無人貨架的新聞，除了負面，還是負面。僅一年，已走到一個“春夢了無痕”的尷尬路口。
一、無人貨架的創業發想
據說，第一家無人貨架公司——Bodega，是谷歌公司兩名前員工創辦的，並吸引越來越多關注。在谷歌當了13年產品經理的Paul McDonald和他的合夥人、另一名谷歌資深員工Ashwath Rajan希望用無人貨架替代以往街角小店的角色。
Bodega在公寓大樓、辦公樓、學校宿舍、健身房等多個區域部署無人貨架，主推裝滿非易腐商品的五英尺寬食品櫃，櫃子裡都是顧客在便利店常常會買的商品。用戶可以通過配套的手機應用解鎖櫃子，貨架上配備的攝像頭會記錄使用者拿走的商品，然後自動從用戶的信用卡扣款，整個交易過程無需店員參與。
目前，該公司已在美國西海岸的50個區域放置了Bodega貨架，計畫快速將貨架推向全美各地，目標是部署超過1000個。
值得關注的是，Bodega用到了機器學習技術，會通過該技術不斷重估某一地區需求量最高的100件商品。例如，在一個女學生聯誼會所，年輕女性可能會定期購買椒鹽脆餅乾、卸妝水和衛生棉條；在公寓大樓，居民可能會定期購買衛生紙、義大利麵和糖果。
在控制成本方面，Bodega一般不必為貨架佔用空間付費，因為他們會向物業經理標榜自己的“貢獻”。例如，在健身房，Bodega強調稱，放置一個裝有專供運動員食用的食品和蛋白粉的貨架，會讓健身房變得更吸引會員；在公寓大樓，Bodega貨架可讓居民不必跑到當地的街角小店。
對於未來規劃，McDonald希望能夠與其它零售商建立合作關係，在有需要的地方部署它們的商店的迷你版本。例如，辦公用品零售商史泰博（Staples）可以在辦公室內設立Bodega櫃子；健康營養品品牌GNC可以在健身房內設立無人貨架。他表示：實體零售商一直都在努力跟上亞馬遜的步伐，但我們認為它們有機會走不同的發展路線。它們可以將產品帶到人們所在的地方，讓他們需要的時候馬上就能夠買到。這顯然要勝過電商的兩日送達、甚至半小時送達的服務。
二、2017年無人貨架掀起“創投熱潮”
在大陸，無人貨架專案2017年也迎來投資熱潮。
依中商產業研究院發佈的《2017年中國無人貨架市場前景研究報告》顯示，截止2017年9月末，已經有至少16家無人貨架獲得投資，最高達到3.3億元，融資總額超過25億元。
2017年9月，無人貨架運營商猩便利曾獲得1億元天使輪投資，由光速中國領投，美團點評創始人王興、張濤等也參與其中。11月，猩便利再度宣佈獲得3.8億元A1輪融資，由紅杉資本中國基金領投，華興資本、光速中國等跟投。短短兩個多月間，猩便利融資總額已達到近5億元人民幣，而這家公司才剛剛成立4個月。
無人貨架果小美、小E微店最近分別完成千萬美金級別的融資，而哈米、領蛙、友盒等也已有數千萬人民幣投資跟進。
9月19日，餓了麼也正式宣佈啟動無人值守貨架項目——“e點便利”，其食品飲料也普遍低於市場價15％~20％。
從貨架投放來看，因無人貨架門檻不夠高，風險投資人此時紛紛加碼無人貨架，更多是為了趕風口，寧可投錯，也不要被落下。
但各家的做法差別不大，商品差異也不大，大家都在齊頭並進向前衝的階段。因此市場上很快會進入很多個玩家互相踩踏，想當然爾，如同共享單車的慘劇又重演了。
三、2018年無人貨架行業開始洗牌
水能載舟、亦能覆舟，資本推砌出來的風口，最後還是因為資本消散瓦解。
接下來就是頭部玩家對同行的侵掠，即所謂的“優勝劣汰、行業合併”。
燒光了錢、又沒人接盤的同行，默默退出；熬不出頭的同行，被狀況稍好的頭部玩家合併了……..，這行業迅速“涼了”。
2017年底至2018年上半年，這行業經歷了殘酷洗牌。期間，便利蜂拿下領蛙；果小美併購了番茄便利；51零食賣給猩便利；七隻考拉裁員撤點……。
自2018年1月便利蜂步子過大、被曝從三四線城市撤退開始，猩便利、果小美、便利購、七隻考拉…等等，接連被曝裁員和撤點、還有的乾脆倒閉或被吞併。
無人貨架行業就像被推倒的多米諾骨牌，一潰千里，消失的、不帶走一片雲彩……。
尤其2017年底，國內多家互聯網巨頭也相繼進入了無人貨架領域。
2017年9月，餓了麼推出了無人值守貨架——“e點便利”，主要向申請入駐的公司提供小型貨架、冰箱、食品飲料（低於市場價15％~20％）的鋪貨補貨、定期維護、售後等等服務。
同月，阿里投資的盒馬鮮生已經進入辦公室無人貨架領域，正在與該平臺洽談落地細節。預計盒馬無人貨架的形式可能更類似於優化版的自動販售機，品類上側重便利餐。
再到11月，京東也宣佈入局。京東到家稱，公司新研發的智慧貨櫃“京東到家Go”已投入運營。京東到家Go智慧貨櫃裡通常可容納約30-50個sku，主要為零食、飲料等產品，隨著技術不斷反覆運算，會陸續增加低溫奶、鮮食等商品品類。
京東到家MINI超市的使用場景：消費者只需用微信（暫不支持支付寶）掃碼貨架二維碼，進入商品選購介面，使用者挑選完成後，再進入支付介面結算，拿貨走人即可。
11月20日，順豐官方微博發佈消息稱，公司推出了企業員工零食福利一站式平臺“豐e足食”，目前試點工作已經在深圳鋪設數百個貨架，未來將向全國推廣。
又是一場資本市場的狂歡……
四、強勢補貼或將掀起價格戰
一位曾參與過無人便利店專案投資的VC表示，無人貨架這個風口目前已經形成，現在入局的小玩家已經基本沒有機會，除非像京東和順豐這樣的巨頭。
因為，像京東這種巨頭在上游的採購環節具有很強的議價空間，同時也具有很強的配送補貨能力，會給普通玩家帶來較大挑戰，接下來可能將會有一場價格惡戰。
京東到家供應鏈主要是依靠沃爾瑪和京東商城。接受MINI超市入駐的企業均可享受大幅度優惠，且京東到家還向入駐公司提供福利計畫：可定制員工生日專屬福利、極端天氣送暖、節假日福利、商品特價、優秀員工半價表彰。
而同賽道的玩家也開啟了補貼模式，價格戰一觸即發。
例如哈米科技已經入駐了1500家企業，每個企業平均日流水接近200元，凡是關注其微信公號的用戶均可以領取三張一元錢的優惠券，每次購買可使用一張。
五、無人貨架行業的痛點
歷史總一再重演，當風口將歇、資本猶豫的時刻來臨，無人貨架們又如被剪斷了線的風箏，完全失控了。
加上，這行業還存在商業模式不清晰、盈利尚遠、供應鏈不成熟…等問題，行業搖搖欲墜。
此種瘋狂的鋪點位和融資擴張模式，雖然是重要的第一步，但也後患無窮。
對此，無人貨架企業失敗的重要核心原因，就是忽略了場景與網點品質。只一味地追求網點數量而不管網點的環境和場景，以至於貨損、補貨成本加起來，發展點位的成本就變得十分高昂。
比如品質不好的網點，哪怕每天只有兩瓶可樂和三瓶雪碧也需要補貨，但員工運送一次付出的人力和運力成本，卻並沒有因此減少。
六、無人貨架行業成敗的關鍵點，仍然是供應鏈之爭
無人貨架成敗的另一個關鍵點，就是零售的本質—-供應鏈之爭。
無人貨架的壁壘其實不高，如果有壁壘的話，可能也只是企業與網點之間的一紙薄薄的排他協議。真正的話語權，跟供應鏈有關。
開闢一個新城市網點，就意味著要做一條完整的、全新的供應鏈。
新零售，說白了，還是在拼供應鏈平台的建制。
番茄便利創始人、果小美總裁殷志華曾經也說過，目前無人貨架行業的物流和供應鏈端的建設都還處於非常早期的階段，這些是需要長期建設和投入的工程。這無疑也是果小美“轉型”的一個重要原因。
放棄自己“建立供應鏈平台”，和成熟的物流公司以及協力廠商便利店合作，或許是一種“自救”的方式。
因為，無人貨架供應鏈建制是一種“重資產投入”，涉及到選品、地推、物流、運營、大資料分折…….等多個環節，每一個環節都要有較強的協同能力。
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