元宇宙與低軌道衛星
2home.co 楊惟婷
2021年的風雲人物，非全球首富、特斯拉執行長馬斯克莫屬！
歷經風風雨雨，特斯拉成為閃閃發亮的大明星，而除了電動車外，外太空更是馬斯克的另一個大夢，低軌衛星也成為第四季的熱門題材！
不過，在感恩節後第二天，馬斯克又無預警的潑了大家一頭冷水，SpaceX 因火箭動力（猛禽）引擎生產困難，可能會面臨公司破產危機，…@##$%$%^%$$###只能說馬斯克果然是狂人，語不驚人死不休！
一、太空產業競賽的序幕已開啓！
7/11日英國億萬富豪、維珍集團創辦人布蘭森搭乘自家太空船團結號（VSS Unity）首先登上太空，來到離海平面85公里處，也就是太空與大氣的交界處停留4、5分鐘，成為全球實現太空旅行第一人，並暢言「我正往下看美麗的航空站，恭喜大家成功建造這麼美麗的東西。」
緊接著7/21日前全球首富、亞馬遜創辦人貝佐斯也尾隨而至，搭太空船登上外太空，成為首位登上太空的太空旅行業老闆，硬與布蘭森互別苗頭，並為人類探索太空劃下新的篇章。
但其實，不僅是布蘭森和貝佐斯，這幾年包括特斯拉創辦人馬斯克（Elon Musk）、微軟創辦人比爾．蓋茲（Bill Gates）、臉書創辦人祖克柏（Mark Zuckerberg）及香港長江實業集團創辦人李嘉誠等全球超級富豪，也不約而同地將投資觸角延伸到太空產業。
而隨著布蘭森和貝佐斯二大富豪相繼登上太空，人類也正式揭開太空產業競賽的序幕，這下換宇宙要倒楣了！凡有人的地方、就有江湖！
二、低軌衛星（LEO）引爆商機
相較於娛樂性十足的太空旅行，整個金融市場更關心的是，當前後任全球首富貝佐斯忙著與馬斯克較勁時，已不經意地在低軌衛星的兆元產業上開啓世紀對決。
方舟投資（Ark Investment）女股神伍德向來熱衷投資電動車等前瞻性、趨勢性產業，而在2021年第一季，方舟投資特別募集一檔以太空探索為主題的E（ARKX），讓人驚訝的是，ARKX只花短短5天就募集到5億美元，顯示太空產業正帶領出新一波的投資熱潮。顯而易見，投資市場已經注意到太空產業，尤其是低軌衛星未來商業運轉的可能性。
■低軌衛星的成長幅度大
根據美國衛星產業協會（SIA）的資料顯示，2020年全球太空經濟產值約3,713億美元，其中，衛星相關產業的產值占近73％。
中、高軌衛星早已在全球廣泛運用，且成功商轉數十載。
但為何在2021年談論太空產業之時，「低軌衛星」卻成為炙手可熱的焦點？
因為這是民營企業第一次思考，太空產業如何不只可做B2B的生意，也可以找出B2C的商業模式，而「低軌衛星」是最有機會實現這個夢想的途徑。
或許大家在讚嘆之餘，投資人可以想想，從馬斯克身上可透露出何種商機？
雖然講到馬斯克當然大家第一個想到的是特斯拉，然而特斯拉的價值並不僅僅只是在於電池發動，軟實力也是一大重點。
試想，你的車經過複雜路口時，車輛會自動減速慢行，遇到前方有車會自動變道。還有停車很困難？車子會自動幫你停好。這些「自動駕駛」功能，讓特斯拉的汽車更有溫度。而要做到自動駕駛，光靠目前的5G佈建尚不夠覆蓋，還需要「低軌衛星」才能完美無縫接軌，於是 SpaceX 應蘊而生，而這一切都在馬斯克的計劃之中。
SpaceX在2015年推出「星鏈（Starlink）計劃」為的就是可以提供全球 Wi-Fi服務，目前已經發射約1800顆低軌衛星，最後計劃將有12,000顆低軌衛星環繞全球，提供覆蓋全球的網路服務。換句話說，目前低軌衛星滲透率只有15%，未來仍有龐大商機。
而隨著馬斯克領軍的SpaceX與貝佐斯帶頭的 Blue Origin等相繼投入低軌衛星產業，未來十年，衛星產業將以二位數的成長幅度持續向上。
另外，低軌衛星除可在5G時代作為互補功用，等到了6G時代則更可能與各種傳輸技術及通訊系統和毫米波進一步融合，換句話地位將更為重要。
三、馬斯克「星鏈計畫」在低軌衛星佈局獨領風騷
綜觀全球，目前積極布局低軌衛星的「大型玩家」有四位：包括SpaceX星鏈（Starlink）計畫、英國及印度共同支持的OneWeb、亞馬遜Kulper計畫，以及加拿大業者TELESAT的Telesat LEO計畫。
■馬斯克「星鏈計畫」的「近地軌道」衛星網路
SpaceX 的執行長馬斯克表示，星鏈（Starlink）計劃透過12,000顆人造衛星，打造位處近地軌道（Low Earth orbit）的小型衛星群、組成成本低廉的高速網路。此可替客戶在世界各地提供網路，包括為偏鄉地區提供網際網路。
馬斯克的「星鏈」衛星網路計劃是藉由「近地軌道」建立大量用於通訊的衛星網路來提升地球網路速度。目前通訊良好的城市地區及缺乏良好網路建設的偏遠地區之間存在極大差距，而 SpaceX「星鏈計畫」希望積極建設全球通訊基礎建設，以縮小此差距。
當然，這個網路衛星計畫並非沒有反對意見。
天文學家擔心大量的人造衛星可能會對天文觀測帶來負面的影響。因為這些衛星與你可以辨識出來的微弱恆星大致相同，故會造成嚴重影響。
但馬斯克本人則駁斥這些擔憂，並表示SpaceX正在嘗試使用遮陽板及其他方案來幫助這些人造衛星變得較不具反射性。
此外，SpaceX 還設計出一個能讓人造衛星進入目標軌道後轉向的方法，人造衛星在這段期間亮度會特別明顯。馬斯克表示：「這些方法的整體目標就是要讓人造衛星在一周內就無法以肉眼觀察到，並對天文學的影響降到最低。」
■多家航太業者卡位衛星網路商機低軌道衛星申請暴增3.8萬顆
據美國聯邦通訊委員會 (FCC) 公布資料顯示，有 9 家航太業者向該機構提出新建、擴增低軌道衛星的申請，申請量高達近 3.8 顆低軌道衛星。
其中包含亞馬遜 (AMZN-US)、阿斯特拉太空 (Astra) (ASTR-US)、波音 (BA-US)、國際海事衛星組織 (Inmarsat)、Intelsat、Hughes Network、OneWeb等公司，這些航太業者期望透過低軌道衛星提供全球網路服務。
Quilty Analytics 創辦人Chris Quilty表示，這是一場頻譜爭奪戰，建立低軌道網路系統最困難的是獲取 V波段頻譜，而非建造或發射衛星，這也是各家業者爭相在太空展開競爭的原因。
目前低軌道衛星布局最快無疑是 SpaceX 的星鏈計畫，該公司目前已部署超過1,800顆衛星，不過FCC 先前已批准SpaceX公司發射約 7500顆衛星，SpaceX 正在為 Gen2 系統規劃發射近 3萬顆的衛星。
SpaceX 強勁競爭者亞馬遜則正執行 Kuiper計畫，預計未來將發射3236顆低軌道衛星；阿斯特拉甫宣布計劃建造火箭，波音已獲准發射147顆低軌道衛星。
此外，OneWeb目前正在部署已批准的 648顆衛星，發射進度已過半；加拿大運營商Telesat的 Lightspeed計畫將建置 298顆衛星組成的服務。
SpinLaunch則專注於建造替代發射系統，而國際海事衛星組織 Intelsat、Hughes Network 則擁有現有的衛星網路。
然而，未來低軌道衛星激增也可能衍生碰撞以及產生太空碎片的風險。但顧問公司 Summit Ridge Group認為可以透過操縱系統和利用大氣層來應對這種風險。
此外，低軌道衛星使用的 V 波段也會面臨許多挑戰，以往衛星通訊都依賴較頻率低的波段，如 C波段，如今已有逐漸轉向 V波段這類較難利用的高波段。
Quilty表示，頻率越高訊號越容易受到降雨和天氣而衰減，這意味著航太業者需要更好的天線、更強大的衛星和演算法，才能讓低軌道衛星網路品質更佳。
不過，Quilty表示，目前市場已多數克服這些技術障礙，現今最大的挑戰仍是缺乏強大的供應鏈支撐，主因於產業處於發展初期，供應來源有限，航太業者成長過程中勢必面臨許多工程問題。
目前由馬斯克2015年所成立的SpaceX無疑是業界領頭羊，也是目前發展最快的業者，目標將發射近1.2萬顆低軌衛星。截至目前，已登天的衛星數量超過1,800顆，勉強可覆蓋全球一些主要區域。
其次，則是OneWeb尾隨在馬斯克之後。2020年因疫情宣告破產後，卻由於低軌衛星寬頻通訊業務被看好，外界紛紛出手搶奪併購權，最終由英國政府聯手擁有全球第三大電信版圖的印度財團巴帝全球（Bharti）一齊標下，目前已發射近200顆衛星。
■SpaceX 恐面臨破產危機？
SpaceX 旗下衛星網路服務星鏈計畫 (Starlink)，先前因晶片短缺問題拖慢生產速度向客戶道歉，另一項星艦計畫預計明年初進行首次軌道試飛，但執行長馬斯克日前在發給員工的電子郵件中指出，SpaceX 亟需解決引擎生產問題，若新型火箭星艦猛禽 (Raptor) 引擎生產問題無法解決，2022年無法實現至少每2週發射一次星艦的飛行率，恐面臨破產風險。只能說馬斯克果然是狂人，語不驚人死不休！
四、太空產業的台股概念股
以SpaceX為首的許多低軌衛星發展計畫，正帶領出新一波的太空產業投資熱潮，而台灣網通相關業者剛好躬逢其盛。
2022 年是低軌衛星商用服務發展元年，Starlink、OneWeb 等低軌衛星營運商，將提供全球服務涵蓋，台灣已有多家廠商切入主要低軌衛星業者供應鏈。例如，台廠的台揚、穩懋、同欣電及張量科技等，已被馬斯克等業者看上，未來台灣業者將左右這場戰局變化！
地面設備方面，以用戶終端的天線、Wi-Fi路由器等原廠委託製造 (OEM) 組裝，以及印刷電路板 (PCB)、射頻元件等製造為主；衛星部分已切入部分零組件製造供應。
■10家入列低軌衛星國家隊
經濟部為打造台灣低軌衛星國家隊，通過B5G主題式研發專案，將10 家廠商入列國家隊，並給予專案補助，盼串起台灣產業鏈，搶食家用端設備及地面接受網路端設備一年近 320億美元商機。
因此，老牌網通廠明泰(3380-TW)攜手鐳洋、台燿(6274-TW)、金像電(2368-TW)組成團隊，自成一案。
耀登、奇鋐(3017-TW)、台光電等電子關鍵零組件廠也組成一個團隊，通過 B5G 主題研發專案。
此外，昇達科(3491-TW)、穩懋(3105-TW)、創未來公司各成一案。
■昇達科 (3491-TW) 的微波通訊技術
微波通訊大廠昇達科由於低軌衛星商機開始爆發，美國SpaceX客戶衛星產品訂單已經下到明年底。
昇達科 (3491-TW) 原本就為微波元件，濾波器及天線廠，佔有產業上優勢，也因此順利快速切入 Space X，並且橫向發展往其它二大低軌衛星商切入。
另一檔微波通訊大廠啟碁 (6285-TW) 前三季 EPS 因缺料而不如去年同期，但近期網通缺料狀況已經逐漸緩解，估計已經獲得星鏈計劃第二代家用接收器認證的啟碁，財報也會利空出盡，跟上同族群漲勢。
■宏捷科 (8086) 、穩懋 (3105)、全新 (2455) 的第三代半導體
未來為因應大量終端裝置連網需求，頻寬、高頻為趨勢，所以地面衛星天線及各種小型基地台將密集分佈，要提升相關射頻元件材料性能，第三代半導體為不可或缺角色。
穩懋為全球最大砷化鎵代工，市佔率高達 70%，宏捷科 (8086) 為其競爭對手，2021年因蘋果 iPhone 新機只有 Pro級搭載 LiDAR 感測器，低於市場預期下也讓獲利比去年衰退，是 PA三雄中唯一沒有成長者。
至於砷化鎵代工成長幅度最大為全新 (2455)，主因其為最上游廠，擁有製造磊晶能力，故毛利率 42% 也最高。
全新具研發、生產及製造半導體磊晶片能力，砷化鎵晶圓及磊晶全球市占 25% 位居第二，在 3D感測 VCSEL車用需求增加下，上半年獲利2.45元己接近2020年全年水準。
除第二代半導體發展穩定外，在第三代半導體部份GaN on SiC磊晶己打入台系國防工業供應鏈，通過認證小量出貨，至於 5G基地台部分，也於美系 IDM廠認證中，此外宏捷科 (8086) 為其客戶，未來或許有望因此順勢切入中美晶 (5483) 之第三代半導體供應鏈中。
至於中美晶 (5483) 集團旗下砷化鎵晶圓代工廠宏捷科 (8086)表示，低軌衛星、自駕車應用布局持續進展，其中，低軌衛星使用 VCSEL良率近期已提升至9成以上，看好在 AR/VR、自駕車光達 (LiDAR) 應用將逐步發酵。
其中，低軌衛星應用是 GPS (全球定位系統) 的加強版，台廠主力戰場在地面端接收設備上，目前宏捷科開發的產品已進入客戶試用階段，主要客戶為美系大廠。
除低軌衛星外，VCESL 最初發展目標應用為 AR/VR，目前最多應用在手機人臉辨識、測距，並已看到 AR/VR 產品應用朝量產邁進，至於自駕車所使用的光達 (LiDAR)，2022年將進入產品設計元年。
在第三代化合物半導體開發上，宏捷科也挾中美晶集團資源，預計2022年首季完成氮化鎵 GaN on Si、GaN on Sapphire(藍寶石基板) 等開發，應用則鎖定大小基站的功率放大器，高頻高壓氮化鎵 GaN on SiC 則預計到 2023年第二季才會開發完成。
■金居(8358) 的特殊銅箔
銅箔廠金居佈局特殊銅箔有成，車用電子、低軌道衛星及AR/VR等穿戴裝置產品出貨逐步放量，且高頻高速RG系列產品訂單強勁，Intel新一代平台認證亦已到手，讓金居明年營運展望樂觀。
加上，大陸執行「能耗雙控」政策及供電不穩定，對PCB廠生產造成衝擊，不過金居因RG系列產品在Intel Whitley平台掌握較大供貨份額，加上AMD市佔率提升，在Intel及AMD兩大平台助攻下，RG系列產品出貨逐季成長，而新一代平台Eagle Stream認證金居亦領先同業到手，相關產品可望一路好到明年。
在特殊銅箔部分，金居產品主要應用於車用電子、軟板、低軌道衛星，甚至是當紅的元宇宙AR/VR穿戴裝置，其中軟板銅箔為韓系手機品牌大廠主要供應商，近期韓系手機廠折疊式手機銷售亮眼，為金居第4季業績挹注成長動能；在車用電子方面，金居在車聯網高頻銅箔及車用電子相關銅箔產品出貨穩定放量，看好電動車是未來趨勢，金居也評估切入鋰電池銅箔市場，由於電動車是趨勢，金居表示，公司不會缺席鋰電池銅箔，且將以歐美電動車廠為主攻市場。
至於進入起飛期的低軌道衛星及元宇宙AR/VR穿戴裝置，金居亦已躋身為供應商，特殊銅箔可望成為推升公司未來營運成長另一項動能。
■台揚 (2314-TW) 的地面收發站設備
台揚是星鏈計畫地面收發站供應商，其O-RAN量產出貨將帶動業績大翻身。
■同欣電 (6271) 的CIS感測器
CIS 感測器大廠同欣電藉由併購勝麗成功由手機轉往車用，目前車用CIS 需求暢旺，2021、2022兩年都有擴產計劃，結合手機、車用、雷射通訊及低軌衛星各大主流，在車用及低軌衛星兩大熱門題材帶動下，股價比價向上。
■台光電 (2383) 的PCB板
舉凡電子元件製造都需要工業之母 PCB，辣椒雖小、力量無窮偏，雖然是不起眼的小元件，但所有電子產品都得靠它才能運作，台灣擁有全球最大 PCB 產業鏈，自然不會錯過此商機。
相關廠包含華通 (2313)、台光電 (2383)、事欣科 (4916)、昇貿 (3305)等，其中台光電 (2383-TW) 獲利連三年成長，6 月以來營收皆維持 30 億以上水準，第三季毛利率 28% 季增 4%，今年獲利可再成長 50%，本益比 13 倍相對有潛力。
■元晶 (6443) 供應衛星用太陽能板及模組
元晶本來就是特斯拉太陽能充電站的供應商，加入星鏈計畫供應衛星用太陽能板及模組，轉機性高，與同欣電一樣都是兼具電動車與低軌衛星雙重概念的股票。但元晶第四季進入太陽能電廠裝機高峰，故可發現 10月營收開始好轉，不過2021年還是處於虧損狀態。
■USB 4.0高速傳輸族群
最後可以留意 USB 4.0高速傳輸族群，不是只有停留在題材，從第 4 季到明年進入高速成長期，創惟 (6104-TW) 通吃蘋果及三星訂單，營收已經連續 5 個月創下新高，估計今年 EPS 6~6.5 元、明年上看 10 元。
祥碩 (5269-TW)，明年 EPS 估計 58 元，本益比 30 倍；譜瑞 – KY(4966-TW) 估計明年 EPS 70~75 元，本益比也接近 30 倍。創惟股價衝上 180 元，本益比才 18 倍，難怪投信持續加碼。
後勢看好的還有偉詮電 (2436-TW) 與通嘉(3588-TW)。
以上，在低軌衛星供應鏈中，有網通廠，代工廠，PCB 廠，這些廠的獲利數字，不全然是來自低軌衛星，面對有數字的公司，只要判斷本益比是否合理即可。
其中，若沒有數字純題材的公司，則要面臨較大的回檔風險，這是手中有相關概念股的投資朋友所必須要有的認知。
五、跋尾—-只要選對趨勢，大象也會跳舞
最後，我們不禁要思考，低軌衛星究竟是不是一場夢？
首先要瞭解的是，特斯拉的主軸價值所在，在於它除了是電動車外，「自動駕駛」更是精髓，透過自動駕駛搜集到大量用戶資訊，並且提供更多付費服務，就如同蘋果的 APP Store，但如果沒有了低軌衛星的網路無縫覆蓋，馬斯克如何達成「自動駕駛」這個夢想？
從此邏輯可知，低軌衛星縱始遇到波折，但絕是馬斯克心中不可或缺的那一塊。
於是答案來了，低軌衛星既然是必要條件，那相關的概念股未來必有實質業績所支撐，而非只是純題材炒做。
不同於元宇宙還沒有實質的業績貢獻，低軌衛星的星鏈計畫已經正式商轉，2022年將進入高速成長期。而在目前低利率的環境下，市場資金充沛，低軌道衛星概念股必是未來主流之一。低軌衛星國家隊已正式成軍，加上展望正向，預料2022年將成資金卡位重心。
總之，「電動車、低軌衛星、第三代半導體」三者看似豪無關聯，但卻是環環相扣，電動車需要第三代半導體的耐高壓製造元件，同時也需低軌衛星來達成自駕功能，而低軌衛星也需要第三代半導體來作為材料的基礎，三者完對結合，將製造出無限商機。
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