新變種病毒對金融市場的衝擊
2home.co 楊惟婷
新型變種病毒株「B.1.1.529」(又名 omicron)來襲，它是自疫情爆發以來突變最多的變種病毒，傳染力更勝此前被喻為大魔王的Delta病毒，引爆市場恐慌情緒，為股市帶來猛烈的拋售潮，全球股市慘綠一片，道瓊盤中一度暴跌逾1000 點，終場收黑逾 900多點，創下2021年迄今最慘單日表現，標準普爾 500指數跌逾 2%，創1941年以來最糟感恩節翌日表現。資金竄逃債市避險，致美國10年期公債殖利率降至1.531%。
現在大家最關心的是，omicron將會對全世界及金融市場帶來那些影響？
我們還能不能回到以前的世界？
一、西方世界的防疫彈性疲乏？
新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 全球疫情持續蔓延以來，截至11/26 日美國約翰霍普金斯大學數據指出，全球確診數已飆破2.60億例，死亡數突破518萬例。
最早在非洲波札那發現的新變種病毒「B.1.1.529」已在當地、南非、以色列、香港和比利時相繼傳出病例，世界衛生組織11/26 日緊急召開會議，顧問小組建議將「B.1.1.529」列為「值得關注」，並將變種病毒株命名為「omicron」。
隨後，美國宣布對南非等 8國實施旅行限制。
■十二月封城？
輝瑞執行長11/26 日證實，開發一種對抗新變種Omicron的新疫苗可能需要三個多月的時間。
所以此次新變種病毒如果造成染疫人數大爆發，是否會導致各國政府重啟嚴格的防疫措施，甚至封城，引爆市場恐慌情緒？此對期盼復甦的實體經濟，是否又會再補一刀？
事實上，以西式民主的慵懶程度，以及對防疫彈性疲乏程度來看，再次宣布封城可能性極低，應沒有政客有此情操，願賭上自己的政治生命？
■貨幣政策「抗通膨」的進退失據
歐美日貨幣寬鬆政策已屆「亢龍有悔」的境界！
目前美國QE已決定自11月已逐步退潮，而能源危機催化的通膨尚未緩和，
Fed主要通膨指標的個人消費支出指數 (PCE) 10月年增率仍持續創下30年來新高。
因此，預期 Fed 只能延緩2022年升息步伐，而無法扭轉QE逐步退潮事實。
■財政政策「大基建」的阮囊羞澀
一個靠印鈔度日的國家，可以有多少底氣？新冠疫情以來，美國Fed已印鈔近10兆美元，相當德國、法國、義大利三國 GDP總和！
拜登費了九牛二虎之力，才說服美國國會再通過1兆美元兩黨基建法案，而1.75兆美元「重建美好」法案仍在聲聲催！
美國財長葉倫11/16 日也向國會議員表示，預料在財政部非常規措施的支持下，美國將在 12 /15 日達到舉債上限，在12 /15日之後財政部可能沒有足夠的剩餘資源維持聯邦政府運作。值此之時，國會必須決定提高還是凍結舉債上限？雖然玩弄全球投資人後，美國仍會再次提高舉債上限。但美國財政阮囊羞澀的窘境，仍是不爭的事實！
尤其在籌措「大基建」的財源方面，已惹毛了馬斯克等富豪們，再逼他們，他們可能會集體移民火星了。亦即，歐美日財政剌激政策也已屆「亢龍有悔」的境界！
二、大陸「清零」政策，力保全球供應鏈淨土
綜觀大陸近一年來，習大大左勾拳打「阿里」、右勾拳打「騰訊」、左踩「滴滴」、右踢「小燕子」、獅吼「許家印」、順便拉閘「限電」，讓全球供應鏈黑了！這一連串動作嚇得華爾街、木頭姐跳船逃生，步步驚心，習大大的底氣，連四爺都拜服了！
相對西方的抗疫任性，大陸在習大大的底氣下，防疫上的「清零」政策不容妥協，此舉反而確保全球供應鏈上留下一片淨土。
若此次新變種病毒omicron鬧得愈大，全球游資將湧入大陸市場，尋找避風港。亦即，大陸「先安內、再攘外」政策也已屆「見龍在田」的境界！
或許此波新變種病毒來亂之下，是前進大陸市場的另一次機會，可留意築出底型的大陸ETF。
三、疫情再起，對全球金融市場的衝擊
新冠新變種病毒omicron令全球聞之色變，11/26 日美股恐慌指數飆漲逾50%，WTI原油期貨價格自9月底%來首次跌破70美元，比特幣也陷入熊市，避險資金奔向日圓、美債等避險資產。
新變種病毒Omicron引發投資人焦慮，風險資產遭拋售，11/26 日避險資金逃竄至債市，美國10年期公債殖利率下滑至1.47%，因殖利率與價格走勢相反，導致美國10年期公債出現2020年3月疫情爆發至今的最大單日漲幅。
而金融市場對全球央行升息押注也產生改變，如今預測美國Fed啟動疫後首次升息的時間點延至2021年9月。
黃金一向是避險或通膨對沖工具，所以近期在通膨數據公布後，黃金價格已大幅上升。11/26日，投資人被迫採取避險措施，黃金在避險買盤撐托下，價格也再次走高。展望未來，在高通膨持續及新變種病毒omicron的風險交互作用下，這同時可支撐黃金的投資需求，並推升黃金價格朝2020年創下的紀錄高點2000美元/盎斯挺進。
- 疫情再起的選股策略
前幾天對通膨的擔心，在突然出現新變種病毒來亂之下，市場短期情緒已經轉為對經濟成長放緩的憂慮。
目前，科學家尚不確定新變種病毒其致命性以及傳播力程度。
因此，人云亦云下，短線資金逃竄路徑，由債市、日圓、黃金向防疫必需品、電商竄逃。受驚嚇的投資者，通常先本能地將資金投入黃金、美國公債和其他被視為避險工具的資產，例如日圓。
鑒於目前全球股市大多處於歷史高點，因此，全球股市技術性回落似乎是合乎邏輯。近期受QE過度剌激的過熱經濟，正可提供「冷水三抖」的中期緩衝。
現階段立馬斷定潛在的經濟後果還為時過早，現在的關鍵反而是要弄清楚目前的疫苗對變種病毒是否仍然有效？而新變種病毒的不確定性將會如何影響各國央行QE退場的進程？
鑑於全球已歷經二年病毒侵襲，人類對於這種病毒已經有一定抵抗能力，即預計新變種殺傷力將逐步降低，這不是未知的恐懼，故恐慌將不會持續太久。
目前，市場可能會預期聯準會 (Fed) 縮減購債的步伐放緩，升息幅度縮小。
因此，只要美國10年期公債殖利率出現回升，代表避險需求消褪，股市即已經渡過這次震撼考驗，因為目前過剩資金已漫溢到元宇宙、仍無處發洩，除非Fed提前升息，否則當市場參與者恐慌過去，仍會找個理由逢低買入。
因此，建議投資人勿過度恐慌，雖然大盤指數暫時拉回整理，但好股票絕對不會寂寞，只要以個股的財報基本面來做依據，即可抓住超跌後的超額利潤。
■高本益比科技股將是殺戮戰場？
由於美國Fed超寬鬆貨幣政策已經持續一段時間，而本夢比推升車電、第三類半導體、元宇宙等概念股飆升到虛無飄渺的天際，依歷史經驗顯示，從聯準會宣佈縮減QE到實施，這個階段高本益比科技股修正壓力最大，何況此時新變種病毒又來亂。
2021年2月以來，尖牙股指數預估本益比自37倍不斷下滑，目前尖牙股指數預估本益比約為27倍。尖牙股指數由10家大型科技公司所組成，包含特斯拉、Nvidia、蘋果、Google、臉書、Netflix、亞馬遜、推特，以及中概股阿里巴巴與百度。
未來，高本益比科技股只能看特斯拉、輝達、META能圈出多大的夢想？而投資人是否依然買單？
■負油價將重現？
Omicron病毒株來勢洶洶，擔心新變種病毒可能引起封鎖以及對商業和消費者活動的限制，而打擊燃料需求。11/26 日美國1月交割的 WTI原油期貨價格大跌10.24美元或13.1%，收每桶68.15美元，為最近月契約自2020年 4 /20 日以來最大單日下跌金額。也摔至11週低點，摜破70美元關卡。
其實，新新變種病毒是否會侵蝕石油需求仍未知？但OPEC +掌握原油供給是已知。亦即原油未來走勢仍取決於OPEC + 下次開會時，是否做出放緩增產計畫的決定？新變種病毒來亂，只是給OPEC +上天掉下來的禮物！
唯一可以確定的是，2020年的負油價是千年一遇，將不再重現江湖！
投資人應把對於新病毒株的恐懼置於現實之上。儘管我們該嚴肅以待，但油價樓地板應該在 72美元區域。
亦即，市場過度恐慌中，「人棄我取」才有超額利潤。
選股可留意元大S&P石油(00642U) 11元支撐及台聚(1304)30元支撐，OPEC + 取消增產，後市仍可期待。
■塞港依舊，供應鏈瓶頸問題難以化解？
由於目前美國塞港的狀況，短期沒有立即解決的方法。而Omicron有可能延誤供應鏈恢復正常的進度，使供應鏈瓶頸問題更難以化解，此將讓航運運價居高不下。
以長榮 (2603-TW) 為例， 11/5日公布第三季財報，單季稅後純益801億元，年增 879%，等於平均每日賺進8.7億元，每股純益15.15元，一舉賺贏上半年、創新高，超乎市場預期；另總計，貨櫃三雄Q3合計大賺 1665億元。
若到2022年全球塞港狀況持續，在塞港各種附加費持續墊高下，使運價仍處歷史高檔。因此，但貨櫃三雄下半年稅前獲利數字預估仍有望較上半年翻倍，估挑戰4,000億元大關。因此，逢大盤殺低，航運類股將是最佳防禦類股。
五、跋尾—西方不亮，東方亮？
■只有美國聯準會更激進時，投資人可能才會怕
目前，美股仍在歷史高點附近徘徊。不過，市場仍在憧憬宇宙，即便左有通膨、右有病毒，投資人卻似乎不以為然。但請記得，多頭總在充滿希望中毀滅！在此期間，高本益比科技股即使跌深反彈，都有可能是十年內最佳賣點。
■永遠不要相信政客
政客只是一群驢在演戲，說穿了，只是為了愚弄選民，2022年是美國期中選舉年，若民主黨選輸，將立馬使拜登立刻跛腳，而川普可能又將復出了，這是大家都不樂見的事。因此，金融市場會配合拜登演幾場戲給選民看！
另外，美國當前最大民怨是高漲的物價，10月CPI 仍創31年來最大漲幅，美國Fed打通膨已成選戰主軸。
美國難以控制的通膨其實是因果循環，拜登政府上台兩年就直升機撒錢9兆美元，雖然刺激消費需求，但也同時拉動通膨。加上供應鏈惡化，因為缺少足夠的工人及交通運輸工具，導致供應不足，當然拉升物價。
由於拜登迫在眉睫，在明年期中選舉前必須控管通膨。拜登若調降2018年以來中美貿易戰的對中懲罰性關稅，這不但會激勵美國股市的信心，並且減輕美國民眾的消費支出壓力。如此，自中美貿易戰以來，築底三年的大陸股市，已漸壓抑不住。所以在大陸「清零」政策，力保全球供應鏈淨土下，在調降中美關稅後，中美貿易量勢必增加。此不止大陸股市受惠，全球航運業同樣享有免死金牌，想像天空仍遼闊。這波疫情，或許是上天掉下來的禮物！
2021年即將封關做帳，18,034 點高點已無力強渡！或是，先蹲後跳是多頭較好的選擇！
其實2021年台灣因轉單效應及晶片狂缺的漲價效應，台灣經濟成長耀眼，台股上市櫃公司獲利大幅成長，在高殖率支撐下，2022年將有利除息行情。
另外，外資連續2年累計賣超台股上兆元持股，若一旦中美關係能改善，兩岸風險獲得控制，即便全球股市有一波修正，外資卻可能有認錯回補台股機會，值得進一步留意。
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